Back to Search Start Over

Multi-factor joint return period of rainstorms and its agricultural risk analysis in Liaoning Province, China.

Authors :
Feng, Yu
Li, Ying
Zhang, Zhiru
Gong, Shiyu
Liu, Meijiao
Peng, Fei
Source :
Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk. Dec2019, Vol. 10 Issue 1, p1988-2008. 21p. 11 Charts, 2 Graphs, 6 Maps.
Publication Year :
2019

Abstract

Rainstorms are one of the frequent natural disasters which have significant impact on agricultural production and people's lives. Considering the comprehensive influence of various factors on the rainstorm events, this study extracts four elements of rainstorms in the Liaoning Province based on meteorological data collected between 1957 and 2015. Combined four elements of rainstorms by copula function, the cumulative probability of the rainstorm events and the probability of their return period can be analysed. The results show that the joint return period of multiple factors combination is less than the return period of a single factor. The degree of accuracy of the joint return period is higher, which is consistent with the actual situation. During periods of 5, 10, 20, and 50 years, the occurrence probability varies according to the idea 'the central region is higher, while the eastern and western regions are lower'. Special attention must be paid to the low values of the region in future rainstorm disaster prevention and mitigation work. Based on return periods, the agricultural risk grade can be divided into 5 levels. In ascending order, they are level I (Fuxin, Shenyang, Tieling), II (Dalian, Jinzhou, Panjin, Liaoyang), III (Huludao, Fushun), IV (Chaoyang, Yingkou, Anshan, Benxi), and V (Dandong). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
19475705
Volume :
10
Issue :
1
Database :
Academic Search Index
Journal :
Geomatics, Natural Hazards & Risk
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
140466588
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2019.1660727