Using Overshooting Top Area to Discriminate Potential for Large, Intense Tornadoes.

Recent work established strong links between storm updraft width and the tornado intensity, suggesting that updraft width could be used to gauge potential tornado intensity. It was also posited that overshooting top area (OTA) could be used as an analog for updraft width and, thus, as a means to assess potential tornado intensity in observed storms. The implementation of new high‐resolution GOES‐R series satellites presents a unique opportunity to investigate these findings in severe weather observations. Herein, a method using GOES‐16 longwave infrared satellite data to quantify OTA of tornadic storms is explored. A comparison between observed tornado strength and OTA yields a strong correlation (R2 = 0.54). These results show the potential of these quantifications to be used with real‐time observations of tornadic storms, irrespective of storm mode, seasonality, or geographic location, allowing forecasters to determine which storms pose the highest risk to life and property. Plain Language Summary: Identifying storms capable of producing strong tornadoes remains a focus of severe weather research due to their significant impacts to life and property. Recent advancements in satellite observations present new opportunities to develop methods for identifying these storms. Using satellite imagery of the top of severe thunderstorms, a strong relationship is identified between the size of the imprint of the storm's updraft and the strength of the tornado that may develop within it. This information might be used by meteorologists to identify storms with the highest potential to produce violent tornadoes and to communicate better the risk posed by them to the public. Key Points: There is a strong relationship of overshooting top area to tornado EF rating in tornadic thunderstormsThis relationship holds for different storm morphologies, seasons, and geographic locationsThe overshooting top area method shows promise in operational applications [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]