TÜRKİYE'DE ENFLASYON, DÖVİZ KURU VE TÜKETİCİ KREDİLERİ ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİNİN ANALİZİ.

The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between consumer loans and some macroeconomic variables between 2006:Q1 and 2018:Q2 quarter periods in Turkey. In this context; consumer loans, inflation, exchange rate, interest and money supply variables were used. Firstly, the stability of variables are analyzed that structural non-breaking unit root test (ADF, PP) and a structural break (Zivot-Andrews) unit root test. Whether or not there is a long-term relationship between the variables was investigated by the Gregory- Hansen structural fracture cointegration test. The direction of causality between the variables was examined with Toda-Yamamato causality test. In Toda-Yamamoto causality test, it is seen that there is a bidirectional causality relationship between interest rate and consumer loans. In addition, the one-way causality relationship from money supply to consumer loans has been determined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]