Ein Vorschlag zur literaturbasierten Ermittlung möglicher Alternativbaumarten im Klimawandel am Beispiel der Artensteckbriefe in Baden-Württemberg.

The potentially decreasing climatic suitability of today's main tree species in Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany (Figure 1) is urgently necessitating the search for alternative tree species. Due to the high number of criteria to be considered in this search we selected the multicriteria analysis to systematically rank the candidate species. 25 tree species comprising domestic secondary as well as European and Non-European species (Table 1) were subjected to a systematic literature review focusing for each species on 35 criteria especially relevant under climate change (Table 2). During the text analysis (Figure 2) all criteria were assessed for each species on a scale from good (1) to poor (5) rating (Table 3) and then summarized into preliminary mean values for the five so-called target systems cultivation, yield, wood utilization, ecosystem services and risks. Assuming potentially different preferences of decisionmakers (Table 4) these five mean values per species were then aggregated to one single suitability value per species, either equally weighted or with a special weight for one of the target systems. Yellow poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera) qualified as the most promising alternative tree species followed by sweet chestnut (Castanea sativa), Turkish hazel (Corylus colurna), Silver birch (Betula pendula) and hornbeam (Carpinus betulus) (Table 6). Furthermore, the next species in the ranking are Japanese Larch (Larix kaempferi), Black pine (Pinus nigra) and black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia), which still had good overall suitability but were only ranked this highly when yield criteria were given extra weight. Wild service tree (Sorbus torminalis) ranked similarly to these species, if risk criteria were weighted strongly. The presented concept may be used to rank a high number of tree species according to a high number of suitability criteria in a systematic, transparent and flexible way. However, since the underlying information is merely literature-based, further analyses appear essential before recommending climate-suitable species. Firstly, the list of considered species must be extended to allow better comparisons. Moreover, the best-ranking species presented in this study should be tested for large-scale climatic niche suitability with species distribution models. And in a last step, experimental plantations should provide cultivation experiences especially under the most sensitive site conditions, before recommending large area forest conversion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]