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Relationships between climate change, agricultural development and social stability in the Hexi Corridor over the last 2000 years.
- Source :
-
SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences . Sep2019, Vol. 62 Issue 9, p1453-1460. 8p. - Publication Year :
- 2019
-
Abstract
- This case study of the Hexi Corridor, Northwestern China, utilizes statistical methods to estimate quantitatively the interaction at a regional level between climate change, ancient social developments, and political coping strategies over the past 2000 years. The data is sourced from high-resolution reconstructions of climate series (temperature and precipitation), and historical records of cultivated land, war, population, and changes in regional administrative systems. The results show that moisture conditions played a more significant role than temperature in driving land reclamation in the Hexi Corridor. Analysis also showed a negative correlation between war frequency and the area of cultivated land in the Corridor over 20-year time intervals. Population growth was found to have a significant positive correlation with the cultivated land area during the study period. The results indicate that a climate-induced decline in agricultural production and the subsequent fluctuations in population could act as a trigger for social unrest, which is especially true at the mutual decadal time-scales. However, the interaction with administrative reform also suggests that, in the face of social and economic turmoil, a reasonable administrative hierarchy could strengthen the social governance of regional government, and promote social stability and economic development at a regional level. The study substantiates this notion with empirical quantitative evidence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 16747313
- Volume :
- 62
- Issue :
- 9
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 138396813
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-018-9323-3