Common Unobserved Determinants of Intraday Electricity Prices.

This paper employs multilevel factor modelling techniques to unravel systematic unobserved determinants of the intraday and interzonal price curve dynamics for the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) interconnection. These techniques make an explicit separation of global drivers from region-specific common factors, thereby facilitating the identification of the actual sources of co-variability. Our empirical findings confirm the hypothesis that the common unobserved determinants of power prices in the PJM interconnection obey a block structure, some of which affect different segments of our panel. We argue that a multilevel factor approach offers a more systematic and transparent representation of intertemporal and cross-sectional patterns in PJM electricity prices compared to alternative brute-force VARMAX parametrizations and the single-level factor models, which are often put forward in the literature as viable modelling alternatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]