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A simple Bayesian approach to tree‐ring dating.
- Source :
-
Archaeometry . Aug2019, Vol. 61 Issue 4, p991-1010. 20p. - Publication Year :
- 2019
-
Abstract
- Tree‐ring dating involves matching sequences of ring widths from undated timbers to dated sequences known as 'master' chronologies. Conventionally, the undated timbers (from a building or woodland) are sequentially matched against one another, using t‐tests to identify the relative offsets with the 'best' match, thus producing a 'site' chronology. A date estimate is obtained when this is matched to a local master chronology of known calendar age. Many tree‐ring sequences in the UK produce rather low t‐values and are thus declared not to have a 'best' match to a master chronology. Motivated by this and the routine use of Bayesian statistical methods to provide a probabilistic approach to radiocarbon dating, this paper investigates the practicality of Bayesian dendrochronology. We explore a previously published model for the relationship between ring widths and the underlying climatic signal, implementing it within the Bayesian framework via a simulation‐based approach. Probabilities for a match at each offset are produced, removing the need to identify a single 'best' match. The Bayesian model proves successful at matching in both simulated and real examples. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- *TREE-rings
*MARKOV chain Monte Carlo
*RADIOCARBON dating
*DENDROCHRONOLOGY
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 0003813X
- Volume :
- 61
- Issue :
- 4
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Archaeometry
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 137436888
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1111/arcm.12466