Effects of parametric uncertainty on multi-scale model predictions of shock response of a pressed energetic material.

Predictive simulations of shock-to-detonation transitions (SDTs) of energetic materials must contend with uncertainties in the material properties, reactive models, and the microstructures of the material. In this work, we analyze the effects of uncertainties in the run-to-detonation distance h of a pressed energetic (HMX) material due to variabilities in the thermomechanical properties of HMX. The run distances are computed using a recently developed machine-learning based multiscale modeling framework, viz., the Meso-informed Ignition and Growth (MES-IG) model. The input uncertainties are first used in the MES-IG model to quantify the variabilities in the hotspot dynamics at the mesoscale. A Kriging-based Monte Carlo method is used to construct probability density functions (pdfs) for the mesoscale reaction-product formation rates; these are used to propagate the mesoscale uncertainties to the macroscale reaction-progress variables to construct pdfs for the run-to-detonation distance h. We evaluate uncertainties in h due to variabilities in six material properties, viz., specific heat, Grüneisen parameter, bulk modulus, yield strength, thermal expansion coefficient, and the thermal conductivity of the material. Among these six properties, h is found to be most sensitive to the variabilities in the specific heat of the material; the uncertainties in the specific heat amplify exponentially across scales and result in logarithmic pdfs for h. Thus, the paper not only quantifies and propagates uncertainties in material properties across scales in a multiscale model of SDT, but also ranks the properties with respect to the sensitivity of the SDT response of heterogeneous energetic materials on each property. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]