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High Spatial Resolution Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Permafrost Thermal Conditions for the Beiluhe Basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.
- Source :
-
Remote Sensing . Jun2019, Vol. 11 Issue 11, p1294-1294. 1p. - Publication Year :
- 2019
-
Abstract
- Permafrost is degrading on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) due to climate change. Permafrost degradation can result in ecosystem changes and damage to infrastructure. However, we lack baseline data related to permafrost thermal dynamics at a local scale. Here, we model climate change impacts on permafrost from 1986 to 2075 at a high resolution using a numerical model for the Beiluhe basin, which includes representative permafrost environments of the QTP. Ground surface temperatures are derived from air temperature using an n-factor vs Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) relationship. Soil properties are defined by field measurements and ecosystem types. The climate projections are based on long-term observations. The modelled ground temperature (MAGT) and active-layer thickness (ALT) are close to in situ observations. The results show a discontinuous permafrost distribution (61.4%) in the Beiluhe basin at present. For the past 30 years, the permafrost area has decreased rapidly, by a total of 26%. The mean ALT has increased by 0.46 m. For the next 60 years, 8.5–35% of the permafrost area is likely to degrade under different trends of climate warming. The ALT will probably increase by 0.38–0.86 m. The results of this study are useful for developing a deeper understanding of ecosystem change, permafrost development, and infrastructure development on the QTP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- *PERMAFROST
*CLIMATE change
*EARTH temperature
*WATERSHEDS
*REMOTE sensing
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 20724292
- Volume :
- 11
- Issue :
- 11
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Remote Sensing
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 136945039
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11111294