事前-事中两阶段突发事件应急决策方法.

With respect to the emergency response problem with uncertain scenario predictions, a beforehandongoing two-stage decision making method is proposed considering that the prevention actions adopted beforehand will affect the effects of response actions when the emergency is ongoing. In the method, by calculating the utility of each response action, the most desirable response action concerning each prevention action and each scenario is determined. Then, based on the idea of regret theory, the excessive response matrix and insufficient response matrix for pairwise comparisons of prevention actions are constructed,and then an overall anticipated regret matrix is built for selection the desirable prevention action. Further, the global delight value, global regret value and ranking value of each prevention action is calculated according to the overall anticipated regret matrix. Moreover, the ranking of the prevention actions can be determined, and the desirable prevention action and the response action corresponding to each emergency scenario can be obtained. Finally, a case study is given to illustrate the use of the proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]