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Better Practices in the Development and Validation of Recidivism Risk Assessments: The Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–4.
- Source :
-
Criminal Justice Policy Review . May2019, Vol. 30 Issue 4, p538-564. 27p. - Publication Year :
- 2019
-
Abstract
- This study examines the development and validation of the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–4 (MnSOST-4) on a dataset consisting of 5,745 sex offenders released from Minnesota prisons between 2003 and 2012. Bootstrap resampling was used to select predictors, and k-fold and split-sample methods were used to internally validate the MnSOST-4. Using sex offense reconviction within 4 years of release from prison as the failure criterion, the data showed that 130 (2.3%) offenders in the overall sample were recidivists. Multiple classification methods and performance metrics were used to develop the MnSOST-4 and evaluate its predictive performance on the test set. The results from the regularized logistic regression algorithm showed that the MnSOST-4 performed well in predicting sexual recidivism in the test set, achieving an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.835. Additional analyses on the test set revealed that the MnSOST-4 outperformed the Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–3 (MnSOST-3), Minnesota Sex Offender Screening Tool–Revised (MnSOST-R), and Static-99 in predicting sexual reoffending. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 08874034
- Volume :
- 30
- Issue :
- 4
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Criminal Justice Policy Review
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 135841451
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1177/0887403417718608