Exploring the effects of climate change mitigation scenarios on timber, water, biodiversity and carbon values: A case study in Pozantı planning unit, Turkey.

Abstract This study evaluated the performance of three climate change mitigation management scenarios; business as usual (BAU), low intensity management (LIM) and high intensity management (HIM) to provide ecosystem services. ETCAP simulation model was used to forecast forest development for Pozantı area with 17,603 ha forests in Turkey. Wood production, biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration and water provision were the primary ecosystem services. The species composition, natural composition, key habitats and understory vegetation are maintained and small forest openings were left intact for wildlife. Some forest areas were allowed to develop older to provide better opportunities of biodiversity conservation. The increase of carbon stock was related to age class shifts to older stages due mainly to increasing afforestation areas and productivity. The marginal differences in total carbon balance were related to a smaller increase in volume increment in BAU scenario and a higher allocation of harvest to energy production for the LIM and HIM scenarios. The planning scenarios allowed better production of water runoffs with slight differences among the output of management scenarios. The prevailing variable was the areas of afforestation. The impacts of a forest management scenario on ecosystem services highly depend on the development rate and intensity of management interventions. Highlights • The rate/intensity of forest management interventions affect the provision of ecosystem services. • The increase in the total forest sink for carbon storage is related to age class shifts to older stages. • The management scenarios allowed better control of water runoffs and beneficial to biodiversity. • The intensive management scenarios provided better opportunities for fresh water production. • Climate change may be better managed with careful design of management scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]