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Translating large-scale climate variability into crop production forecast in Europe.
- Source :
-
Scientific Reports . 2/4/2019, Vol. 9 Issue 1, p1-1. 1p. - Publication Year :
- 2019
-
Abstract
- Studies show that climate variability drives interannual changes in meteorological variables in Europe, which directly or indirectly impacts crop production. However, there is no climate-based decision model that uses indices of atmospheric oscillation to predict agricultural production risks in Europe on multiple time-scales during the growing season. We used Fast-and-Frugal trees to predict sugar beet production, applying five large-scale indices of atmospheric oscillation: El Niño Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Scandinavian Pattern, East Atlantic Pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russian pattern. We found that Fast-and-Frugal trees predicted high/low sugar beet production events in 77% of the investigated regions, corresponding to 81% of total European sugar beet production. For nearly half of these regions, high/low production could be predicted six or five months before the start of the sugar beet harvesting season, which represents approximately 44% of the mean annual sugar beet produced in all investigated areas. Providing early warning of crop production shortages/excess allows decision makers to prepare in advance. Therefore, the use of the indices of climate variability to forecast crop production is a promising tool to strengthen European agricultural climate resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 20452322
- Volume :
- 9
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Scientific Reports
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 134611263
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-38091-4