Dynamic freight flow modelling for risk evaluation in food supply.

Highlights • A multi-scale multi-regional input–output (MSMRIO) model is made dynamic. • It is applied to the German food supply system and based on comprehensive data. • The modelled spatial interactions are calibrated on official data. • It determines the additionally needed transport capacity in case of a disruption. • The transparency of supply system is increased and vulnerabilities uncovered. Abstract This paper presents a calibrated dynamic multi-scale multi-regional input–output (MSMRIO) model of the German food supply system based on real data. The model comprises 51 commodity groups from farm to fork differentiating three different temperature ranges as well as living animals. Spatially, it works on an aggregate level of 402 regions within Germany as well as its 50 most important trading nations. It determines the commodity flows and the additionally needed transport capacity in case of disruptions. Showing how changes in production, inventories, sourcing, and consumption affect commodity flows, the model uncovers vulnerabilities and makes risk evaluation possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]