Spatially explicit forecast of feedstock potentials for second generation bioconversion industry from the EU agricultural sector until the year 2030.

Abstract Second generation bioconversion industry is a driver towards the post-petroleum age where materials and fuels are made of renewable resources. Agricultural residues are a promising feedstock source for emerging bioeconomic concepts. Research on the forecasting of feedstock potentials is still scarce and available methodologies are not harmonised. Biomass markets are characterised by their regionality, which requires regionalised assessments and forecasting of feedstock potentials. This work dealt with the question of the variables that determine the future development of agricultural harvesting residues. It further examines methodologies allowing a spatially explicit prediction of feedstock potentials. The forecasting approach was applied to wheat straw, corn stover, barley straw, and rapeseed straw, which together account for 80 per cent of cereals and oil crops harvesting residues in the European Union. The results indicate the largest increase of all investigated crops was for corn stover at up to 20 per cent between 2017 and 2030. Barley straw potentials are expected to stay rather constant within the coming decade. Rapeseed is the only crop likely to face a decreasing production in many regions in the coming years. This work identified increasing crop yields as the main driver for advancing feedstock potentials. Especially Central and Eastern European countries show high growth rates. The methodology of the research work contributes to the discussions about sustainable resource potentials of the European bioeconomy. The forecasting results can be used for strategic decision-making in emerging bioconversion concepts. Highlights • Spatially explicit assessment of agricultural residue potentials in the EU. • Time series-based forecast until 2030. • Focused on wheat straw, corn stover, barley straw and rape straw. • Developed forecasting methodology is transferable to other biomass feedstock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]