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Integrating long-term economic scenarios into peak load forecasting: An application to Spain.
- Source :
-
Energy . Dec2017 Part 1, Vol. 140, p682-695. 14p. - Publication Year :
- 2017
-
Abstract
- The treatment of trend components in electricity demand is critical for long-term peak load forecasting. When forecasting high frequency variables, like daily or hourly loads, a typical problem is how to make long-term scenarios - regarding demographics, GDP growth, etc. - compatible with short-term projections. Traditional procedures that apply de-trending methods are unable to simulate forecasts under alternative long-term scenarios. On the other hand, existing models that allow for changes in long-term trends tend to be characterized by end-of-year discontinuities. In this paper a novel forecasting procedure is presented that improves upon these approaches and is able to combine long and short-term features by employing temporal disaggregation techniques. This method is applied to forecast electricity load for Spain and its performance is compared to that of a nonlinear autoregressive neural network with exogenous inputs. Our proposed procedure is flexible enough to be applied to different scenarios based on alternative assumptions regarding both long-term trends as well as short-term projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 03605442
- Volume :
- 140
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Energy
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 125836282
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2017.08.113