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An Empirical Bayes before-after evaluation of road safety effects of a new motorway in Norway.
- Source :
-
Accident Analysis & Prevention . Nov2017, Vol. 108, p285-296. 12p. - Publication Year :
- 2017
-
Abstract
- This paper presents an Empirical Bayes before-after evaluation of the road safety effects of a new motorway (freeway) in Østfold county, Norway. The before-period was 1996–2002. The after-period was 2009–2015. The road was rebuilt from an undivided two-lane road into a divided four-lane road. The number of killed or seriously injured road users was reduced by 75 percent, controlling for (downward) long-term trends and regression-to-the-mean (statistically significant at the 5 percent level; recorded numbers 71 before, 11 after). There were small changes in the number of injury accidents (185 before, 123 after; net effect −3%) and the number of slightly injured road users (403 before 279 after; net effect +5%). Motorways appear to mainly reduce injury severity, not the number of accidents. The paper discusses challenges in implementing the Empirical Bayes design when less than ideal data are available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- *TRAFFIC safety
*EXPRESS highways
*BAYES' theorem
*EMPIRICAL research
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00014575
- Volume :
- 108
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Accident Analysis & Prevention
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 125419238
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2017.09.014