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Chinese urbanization 2050: SD modeling and process simulation.
- Source :
-
SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences . Jun2017, Vol. 60 Issue 6, p1067-1082. 16p. - Publication Year :
- 2017
-
Abstract
- Is Chinese urbanization going to take a long time, or can its development goal be achieved by the government in a short time? What is the highest stable urbanization level that China can reach? When can China complete its urbanization? To answer these questions, this paper presents a system dynamic (SD) model of Chinese urbanization, and its validity and simulation are justified by a stock-flow test and a sensitivity analysis using real data from 1998 to 2013. Setting the initial conditions of the simulation by referring to the real data of 2013, the multi-scenario analysis from 2013 to 2050 reveals that Chinese urbanization will reach a level higher than 70% in 2035 and then proceed to a slow urbanization stage regardless of the population policy and GDP growth rate settings; in 2050, Chinese urbanization levels will reach approximately 75%, which is a stable and equilibrium level for China. Thus, it can be argued that Chinese urbanization is a long social development process that will require approximately 20 years to complete and that the ultimate urbanization level will be 75-80%, which means that in the distant future, 20-25% of China's population will still settle in rural regions of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 16747313
- Volume :
- 60
- Issue :
- 6
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- SCIENCE CHINA Earth Sciences
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 123347704
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-016-9022-2