基于熵信息扩散理论的中国农业水旱灾害风险评估.

Agricultural flood and drought are the major factors that constrain the agricultural production in China. In view of the deficiency of information diffusion theory model, an entropy information diffusion theory model for agricultural flood and drought risk assessment was built in this paper, and a case was taken which verified that the entropy information diffusion theory model is superior to the information diffusion theory model in the aspect of estimation results. Then, the entropy information diffusion theory model is employed to assess the risk of agricultural flood and drought in the 30 provinces/municipalities/autonomous regions of the mainland of China (Chongqing city is contained in Sichuan Province) based on the data gathered during the period of 1985-2013, and a comprehensive comparative analysis is conducted on the agricultural flood and drought risks in China based on the assessment result. According to the evaluation and the analysis, China is faced with serious agricultural flood and drought risk; the agricultural drought risk is obviously higher than the agricultural flood risk in China; agricultural flood and drought risks exhibit a remarkable spatial pattern; the high and medium risk area of agricultural flood are mainly found in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and Northeast China, while the high risk area of agricultural drought disaster are mainly observed in the northern part of China and Northeast China. According to the spatial distribution pattern of agricultural floods and droughts in China, the southern part of China is susceptible to flood, the northern part of China is susceptible to drought, and Northeast China is faced with the overlapped effect of flood and drought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]