基于内外动力耦合成因理论的新疆地质灾害气象预警显式统计模型.

Meterological early-warning is the key issue that arises during the preventions of geological hazards. A model of meterological early-warning refers to the study of space-time relationships between meterological conditions and risks of geological hazards, which is the core of early-warning. There are serious geological hazards in Xinjiang, which is taken as the example for the model study. Due to its own geological and geomorphological conditions, the geological hazards are controlled by strong endogenic and exogenic coupling effects. Early-warning of geological hazards in Xinjiang is divided into several zones based on the genesis theory of endogenic and exogenic coupling. A explicit statistic model with selected optimum indexes is completed based on geographic information system (GIS). In the model, the weights of early-warning indexes of geological hazards are determined according to the experts' experience, and the values of geological environment indexes are calculated. Then, the model is consistently verified by historical geological hazards, namely the results of early-warning are the same. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]