The Road to Global Nuclear Zero? Why the Nuclear Powers Are Unlikely to Follow in South Africa's Footsteps.

As the prospect of global nuclear disarmament is debated in policy circles, scholarly inquiry can offer insights into possible future nuclear scenarios. Why might states give up their nuclear weapons? Might the major nuclear powers denuclearize? This article presents a novel sociological explanation of nuclear choices to shed light on the potential for nuclear disarmament. It explores how South Africa's elimination of its nuclear arsenal two decades ago resulted chiefly from its new vision of international standing as achievable by cooperative diplomacy and upholding global rules. However, the nuclear powers show few signs of following suit. Indeed, nuclear reversal would require the major powers to abandon the nuclear arms they hold as essential to their global power stature. Overall, the research shows that major power aversion to deficient power status will make global nuclear zero difficult to achieve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]