Integrating Problem Representation, Image Theory, and the Poliheuristic Theory of Decision Making: An Experimental Analysis.

While devoting much attention to explaining how leaders evaluate options, poliheuristic (PH) theory does not focus on (a) how these options are generated prior to the stage one noncompensatory screening process or (b) how they acquire their relative attractiveness on key dimensions in the more "rational" second stage. We believe that the PH framework can be extended to account for the pre-stage one generation and the stage two attractiveness of decision options by incorporating elements of the research programs on foreign policy problem representation (PR) and image theory. PR research has shown that the way in which leaders frame the decision problem determines which policy options are generated as viable solutions and which options are not even considered. Image theory sheds light on the perceived likelihood of success and the costs and benefits associated with viable options. In this paper we develop a hybrid PR-PH framework and produce hypotheses about how specific elements of leaders' problem representations and strategic judgments related to their adversaries will affect the generation and perceived attractiveness of different types of policy options. We then test these hypotheses empirically using experimental methods and report our findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]