Democratization and Determinants of Ethnic Violence: The Rebel-Moderate Organizational Nexus.

Why in some cases do we observe an increase in ethnic violence following a democratic transition, while in others violence dissipates? We argue that a crucial intervening variable that is often ignored in ethnic conflict studies is the nature and number of organizations that purport to represent an ethnic group. Following Brubaker (2004), we question the notion that ethnic groups are unitary actors with homogenous preferences. In most cases, loyalties among politically relevant minority ethnic groups are divided between moderate and extremist organizations. Democratization and concurrent institutional changes can significantly alter the previous configuration of organizations, which affects the level of competition between organizations for group support. Through an analysis of six cases, we demonstrate that, on average, competition is associated with higher levels of ethnic violence while cooperative or dominant organizations have tended to reduce violence in the aftermath of democratization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]