Quantifying the impacts of decarbonisation in China’s cement sector: A perspective from an integrated assessment approach.

China has been the world’s largest cement producer and the cement production has led to increased energy consumption and CO 2 emissions, which greatly affect the country’s social and economic development. In this paper, an integrated assessment framework was developed by combining the Stock-based model and the Integrated MARKAL–EFOM System model of China (China TIMES), and it was used in China’s cement sector to simulate the trends of energy consumption and CO 2 emissions during 2010–2050, under a reference scenario and three carbon tax scenarios. The modeling results show that: (1) the cement production in China will increase from 1.8 billion tons in 2010, to a peak of 2.5 billion tons in around 2017, and then gradually decrease to 1.5 billion tons in 2050; (2) Through the adoption of three alternative abatement measures (i.e., switching the fuel types, implementing the energy-efficient measures and CCS), China’s cement sector could potentially achieve a great reduction in CO 2 emissions; (3) In the near future, the cement sector’s decarbonisation will mainly rely on energy efficiency improvement; while the use of alternative fuel use and CCS will be of great significance from a long-term perspective. Additionally, based on the modeling results, we build the energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies roadmap for China’s cement sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]