The Effect of the Housing Crisis on Interstate Migration in the Counties of Florida, 2008–2009 and 2013–2014.

For the latter half of the twentieth century Florida was noted as a preferred destination for interstate migrants. However, during 2008–09, Florida had a net loss of 31,000 interstate migrants. This loss of interstate migrants followed the economic recession and housing collapse of 2007–08. This paper explores the effect of the housing collapse on in-, out-, and net interstate migration for the counties of Florida for 2008–09 and 2013–14 using the Internal Revenue Service Migration Files. Ordinary Least Squares Regression was applied to determine the variables that affected interstate in-, out-, and net migration for the two time periods. Net migration rates revealed that counties with the greatest housing value declines and the greatest loss in employment lost migrants during 2008–09. This loss could be attributed to the out-migration of interstate migrants from counties experiencing the housing crisis and the reluctance of interstate migrants to select counties that experienced the brunt of housing collapse. For 2013–14, the highest net migration rates accrued to counties experiencing the lowest housing value increases. This suggests that in the case of Florida, net migration favors counties that are less likely to experience rapid increases (as in 2013–14) and rapid decreases (2008–09) in housing values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]