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A simple, physically motivated model of sea-level contributions from the Greenland ice sheet in response to temperature changes.
- Source :
-
Environmental Modelling & Software . Sep2016, Vol. 83, p27-35. 9p. - Publication Year :
- 2016
-
Abstract
- Sea level could rise by several meters over the next centuries. The Greenland ice sheet could be an important contributor to future sea-level rise, because of its large volume and its high sensitivity to surface air temperature increases. Frameworks for the integrated climate risk management often require fast, simplified treatments of sea-level rise, in particular for estimating the risks associated with low probabilities but potentially high impacts. State-of-the-art ice sheet models provide important insights, but are often computationally too demanding to evaluate tail-area risks. Here we present SIMPLE, a physically motivated model of the Greenland ice sheet in response to temperature changes. SIMPLE can skillfully reproduce the results from a three-dimensional ice sheet model and outperforms existing simple models, after similar calibration. We anticipate that SIMPLE will be calibrated to other ice sheet models and can provide a fast approximation (emulator) for such models in studies that require many model evaluations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 13648152
- Volume :
- 83
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Environmental Modelling & Software
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 117780997
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.05.003