INVESTIGATION ON EFFECTS OF INITIAL SCHEMES FOR BINARY TYPHOONS ROKE AND SONCA IN 2011.

Based on the Tropical Region Atmospheric Modeling System for South China Sea (TRAMS), Typhoon Roke (1115) and Sonca (1116) in 2011 which have large forecast errors in numerical operation prediction, have been selected for research focusing on the initial scheme and its influence on forecast. The purpose is to find a clue for model improvement and enhance the performance of the typhoon model. Several initialization schemes have been designed and the corresponding experiments have been done for Typhoon Roke and Sonca. The results show that the forecast error of both typhoons' track and intensity are less using the initial scheme of relocation and bogus just for the weak Typhoon Sonca, compared with using the scheme for both typhoons. By analysis the influence of the scheme on weak typhoon vortex circulation may be the reason that leads to the improvement. All weak typhoons in 2011 to 2012 are selected for tests. It comes to the conclusion that the initial scheme of relocation and bogus can reduce the error of track and intensity forecast. Besides, the height of cloud top in typhoon vortex constructed by bogus is too high according to weak typhoon. It is feasible to develop a bogus which is suitable for weak typhoon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]