Development a scenario-based model for Iran׳s energy future.

Scenario techniques are to be used in the field of energy for development of planning and as well as management. Large numbers of studies and researches have been reported by the Shell, IEA (International Energy Agency), WEC (World Energy Council), etc. based on the scenario techniques for visualizing of energy status. This study presents a Scenario-Based Model based on assumption about Iran׳s energy future. For this purpose, a conceptual framework and implementation of the method were presented. Afterwards, four scenarios were generated namely: Orange cake, Green horizon, Critical point, Wishful thinking. Scenarios in three-dimensional (political, science and technology (S&T) and environmental) aspects of energy were presented. Results showed that the green horizon scenario has a high convergence for long-term occurrence probability. The three-dimensional distance among the scenarios in the mentioned dimensions indicates that the main variables that shape the future of Iran׳s energy would act in coordination regardless of the category they are placed in. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]