НЕЧЕТКО-ВЕРОЯТНОСТНАЯ МОДЕЛЬ ОЦЕНОК РИСКОВ СЛОЖНЫХ ТЕХНИЧЕСКИХ СИСТЕМ.

In this paper, the authors present the results of their research of a fuzzy-probability model developed for assessing the risks in complex technical systems. A fuzzy inference algorithm and a schematic structure for the fuzzy-probability model assessing the risks in complex technical systems were developed. A fuzzy production rulebase was formed for the linguistic variables proposed for the fuzzy-probability model developed for assessing the risks. Based on the research results, the authors developed a 3-D visualization for the surface of fuzzy-probability model for assessing the structural and functional risks of the elements and element-to-element links in a complex technical system. The results of research of the fuzzy-probability model developed for assessing the risks in complex technical systems made it possible to assess the effect of damage and failure probability of the elements and element-to-element links on a total risk level of a complex technical system. The research and development results obtained make it possible to improve the efficiency of operation of complex technical systems and to give a high-quality forecast of their operational reliability under various emergency scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]