The Human Capital Model of Selection and Immigrant Economic Outcomes.

This article examines the trends in the economic advantage that highly educated immigrants hold over less educated immigrants in Canada, focusing on the differences between short-run and longer-run outcomes. Using data from the Longitudinal Immigration Database covering the period from the 1980s to the 2000s, this study finds that the relative entry earnings advantage that higher education provides to new immigrants has decreased dramatically over the last 30 years. However, university-educated immigrants had a much steeper earnings trajectory than immigrants with trades or a high school education. The earnings advantage among highly educated immigrants increases significantly with time spent in Canada. This pattern is observed for virtually all immigrant classes and arrival cohorts. The results suggest that short-run economic outcomes of immigrants are not good predictors of longer-run results, at least by educational attainment. The implications of these findings for immigration selection policy are discussed in the conclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]