Immigrant Outflows in Contexts of Economic Decline. Does Self-selection Change during Periods of Recession?

This paper studies the outflows of the foreign-born population resident in Spain; specifically, it examines the variations in the probability of emigrating and the intensity of self-selection during the different phases of the economic cycle. In order to do this, survival analysis models were calculated using data from the Spanish Labour Force Survey between 2005 and 2010. The results show, on the one hand, an increase in the probability of emigrating from the start of the recession; and on the other hand, that the probability of emigrating is higher among immigrants with worse employment outcomes and a poorer educational background, as suggested by Neo-classical Economics. However, the effect of unemployment and of the deficit in human capital has been decreasing since 2008. That is, during the recession, negative self-selection is reduced compared to the period of economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]