LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF AGRICULTURAL INDICATORS AND GHG EMISSIONS IN LATVIA.

In Latvia, the agricultural sector contributes to approximately 20% of the total national GHG emissions and is the second largest source of GHG emissions behind the energy sector (68%). In this context, it is of great importance to prepare necessary forecast data on the agricultural sector and to assess their credibility and effect on calculation results. Agriculture develops in a very changing environment; it is affected by climatic conditions, the market situation and technological progress. Forecasting in this sector is associated with specific problems; therefore, it has to be performed employing carefully prepared data and appropriate forecasting methods. The paper deals with long-term forecasting of agricultural indicators and GHG emissions in Latvia, which is based on a macroeconomic model and the use of a multifactor linear regression equation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]