COMPREHENSIVE EVALUATION MODEL OF AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT DISASTER RISK.

The paper established the model of agricultural drought disaster risk evaluation and assessment index system, defined disaster risk threshold value by using the grey correlation, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), weighted synthesis method, natural hazards index method and Fisher optimal partitioning method in the case of Xiuwen, Rongjian, Yinjiang, Meitan,Nayong and Xingren County in Guizhou province. Considering factors of natural, social economic, hazard of disaster-causing factors, the exposure and vulnerability of hazard bearing body and drought resistance ability, guided by theory of meteorology, agricultural science, disaster science, natural disaster risk science and other multi-disciplinary theories, scientific of the model is verified by relevance analysis of crop yield losses estimated on the base of agricultural drought disaster temporal series and drought disaster risk index. The result can provide directions and guidance for drought forecast and risk management in Guizhou province and the similar area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]