Back to Search Start Over

Dynamic Variation in Sexual Contact Rates in a Cohort of HIV-Negative Gay Men.

Authors :
Romero-Severson, E. O.
Volz, E.
Koopman, J. S.
Leitner, T.
Ionides, E. L.
Source :
American Journal of Epidemiology. 8/1/2015, Vol. 182 Issue 3, p255-262. 8p.
Publication Year :
2015

Abstract

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission models that include variability in sexual behavior over time have shown increased incidence, prevalence, and acute-state transmission rates for a given population risk profile. This raises the question of whether dynamic variation in individual sexual behavior is a real phenomenon that can be observed and measured. To study this dynamic variation, we developed a model incorporating heterogeneity in both between-person and within-person sexual contact patterns. Using novel methodology that we call iterated filtering for longitudinal data, we fitted this model by maximum likelihood to longitudinal survey data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Collaborative HIV Seroincidence Study (1992-1995). We found evidence for individual heterogeneity in sexual behavior over time.We simulated an epidemic process and found that inclusion of empirically measured levels of dynamic variation in individual-level sexual behavior brought the theoretical predictions of HIV incidence into closer alignment with reality given the measured per-act probabilities of transmission. The methods developed here provide a framework for quantifying variation in sexual behaviors that helps in understanding the HIV epidemic among gay men. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
00029262
Volume :
182
Issue :
3
Database :
Academic Search Index
Journal :
American Journal of Epidemiology
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
109499236
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1093/aje/kwv044