Back to Search
Start Over
Decomposition and forecasting analysis of China's energy efficiency: An application of three-dimensional decomposition and small-sample hybrid models.
- Source :
-
Energy . Sep2015, Vol. 89, p283-293. 11p. - Publication Year :
- 2015
-
Abstract
- The coordinated actions of the central and the provincial governments are important in improving China's energy efficiency. This paper uses a three-dimensional decomposition model to measure the contribution of each province in improving the country's energy efficiency and a small-sample hybrid model to forecast this contribution. Empirical analysis draws the following conclusions which are useful for the central government to adjust its provincial energy-related policies. (a) There are two important areas for the Chinese government to improve its energy efficiency: adjusting the provincial economic structure and controlling the number of the small-scale private industrial enterprises; (b) Except for a few outliers, the energy efficiency growth rates of the northern provinces are higher than those of the southern provinces; provinces with high growth rates tend to converge geographically; (c) With regard to the energy sustainable development level, Beijing, Tianjin, Jiangxi, and Shaanxi are the best performers and Heilongjiang, Shanxi, Shanghai, and Guizhou are the worst performers; (d) By 2020, China's energy efficiency may reach 24.75 thousand yuan per ton of standard coal; as well as (e) Three development scenarios are designed to forecast China's energy consumption in 2012–2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 03605442
- Volume :
- 89
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Energy
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 109089010
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.05.132