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Assessment of transformation strategies for the German power sector under the uncertainty of demand development and technology availability.
- Source :
-
Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews . Jun2015, Vol. 46, p143-156. 14p. - Publication Year :
- 2015
-
Abstract
- The long-term energy strategy issued by the German government in 2010 and 2011 embraces a substantial reduction of CO 2 emissions and high shares of renewable energy in electricity production, along with energy efficiency improvements and an accelerated nuclear phase-out. While several studies illustrate scenarios reaching these targets, there are substantial uncertainties pertaining to key assumptions, particularly long-term electricity demand and the large-scale availability of offshore wind and carbon capture and storage (CCS). This paper explores conditions under which model-based scenarios for the German electricity sector comply with the official targets for CO 2 emission reductions and renewable shares. We apply the energy system model LIMES-D, which allows for a joint optimization of generation and transmission capacities. The results indicate that reducing electricity demand plays a crucial role for attaining the government׳s targets. Scenarios for which either offshore wind or CCS is not available show an even stronger need for a decreasing electricity demand to reach the targets and a different pattern of transmission capacity expansion than is the case with full technology availability. Hence, a broad technology portfolio could in turn hedge against future power demand increases that may challenge the joint attainment of the German decarbonization and renewable energy targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 13640321
- Volume :
- 46
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 101929457
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2015.02.044