Depiction of Upper-Level Precursors of the December 1999 Storms from TOVS Observations.

At the end of December 1999, two extremely severe storms only one day apart affected western Europe and caused considerable damage. A variable derived from satellite observations, the so-called temperature of the lower stratosphere (TLS), is used in this study for detecting and tracking the upper-level components of these storms. TLS is computed from a regression over five Television and Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS-N) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS, aboard NOAA satellites) channels, with coefficients calculated from a climatological dataset [thermodynamical initial-guess retrieval (TIGR)], and provides information on the temperature near the tropopause. The objective of this paper is to assess the ability of TLS, in situations such as these two exceptional storms, to track and depict upper-tropospheric precursors of surface lows. After a brief synoptic description of the meteorological situation, TLS fields as well as the Action de Recherche Petite Échelle Grand Échelle (ARPEGE) model fields (mean sea level pressure, temperature, wind velocity, and geopotential height of the dynamical tropopause) are discussed concurrently for the period 23-27 December. Although the upper-level thermal fields are consistent overall, differences appear, especially during the incipient stage of the second storm. The forecast, which was poor in the operational context, is modified when a configuration close to the TLS one is adopted. Qualitative comparisons of TLS with Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) channel-3 limb-corrected brightness temperatures and with the water vapor imagery are also shown. One advantage of TLS over these two other fields is the earlier detection of the upper-level precursor of the second storm. Because TLS computation is easy and fast, the suitability of TLS as a possible forecasting aid over midoceanic regions is promoted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]