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Objective: To describe the evolution of physical activity (PA) research in Africa, examine income and gender inequalities, and discuss future possibilities. Methods: A secondary analyses of the Global Observatory for Physical Activity data on PA research in Africa (1950–2019). Results: We identified 514 PA articles from 47 African countries in the past 70 years. Majority (83.1%) of the articles were published between 2012 and 2019. Fifteen countries had no publications. Six countries (South Africa [n = 156], Nigeria [n = 85], Ethiopia [n = 44], Ghana [n = 41], Kenya [n = 39], and Cameroon [n = 20]) accounted for about 75% of the publications. Most articles were observational (92.4%), single-country studies (78.4%), with male first (58.4%) and last authors (68%), and were classified as surveillance studies (45.1%). Few studies addressed interventions (5.8%) and policy (3.5%) or used device-based PA measurement (14.0%). The number of articles per country was positively related to human population level (r =.552, P =.000) and gross domestic product % spent on research and development (r =.301, P =.040). The publication rate per 100,000 people was positively related with the human development index (r =.349, P =.016) and negatively with the gender inequality index (r = −.360, P =.019). Conclusions: Our results provide an overview and status of PA research in Africa, highlighting country differences and gender inequalities in authorship. The findings may be used to benchmark the evolution of research in the region and to inform areas for improvement. There is an urgent need for more PA interventions and policy studies in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper aims to assess the macroeconomic impacts of government investment in Research and Development (R&D) and more generic fiscal policies by quantifying the Gross domestic product (GDP) and business R&D investment multipliers. Following the recent literature on fiscal policy, we combine the Local Projection approach with fiscal shocks estimated using Structural Vector Autoregressive modeling by focusing on a panel of 15 Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries for the 1981–2017 period. Our findings support the idea that expansionary fiscal policies can positively and persistently affect the GDP level and crowd in business R&D investment. Additionally, our results show that public investment in R&D generates the largest multiplicative effect both on GDP and business R&D than the one associated with more generic public expenditures, even when fiscal expectations are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

INTRODUCTION: We previously reported global regional differences in smoking cessation outcomes, with smokers of US origin having lower quit rates than smokers from some other countries. This post-hoc analysis examined global regional differences in individual-level and country-level epidemiological, economic and tobacco regulatory factors that may affect cessation outcomes. METHODS: EAGLES (Evaluating Adverse Events in a Global Smoking Cessation Study) was a randomised controlled trial that evaluated first-line cessation medications and placebo in 8144 smokers with and without psychiatric disorders from 16 countries across seven regions. Generalised linear and stepwise logistic regression models that considered pharmacotherapy treatment, psychiatric diagnoses, traditional individual-level predictors (eg, demographic and smoking characteristics) and country-specific smoking prevalence rates, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, relative cigarette cost and WHO-derived MPOWER scores were used to predict 7-day point prevalence abstinence at the end of treatment. RESULTS: In addition to several traditional predictors, three of four country-level variables predicted short-term abstinence: GDP (0.54 (95% CI 0.47, 0.63)), cigarette relative income price (0.62 (95% CI 0.53, 0.72)) and MPOWER score (1.03 (95% CI 1.01, 1.06)). Quit rates varied across regions (22.0% in Australasia to 55.9% in Mexico). With northern North America (USA and Canada) as the referent, the likelihood of achieving short-term abstinence was significantly higher in Western Europe (OR 1.4 (95% CI 1.14, 1.61)), but significantly lower in Eastern Europe (0.39 (95% CI 0.22, 0.69)) and South America (0.17 (95% CI 0.08, 0.35)). CONCLUSIONS: Increased tobacco regulation was associated with enhanced quitting among participants in the EAGLES trial. Paradoxically, lower GDP, and more affordable cigarette pricing relative to a countrys GDP, were also associated with higher odds of quitting. Geographical region was also a significant independent predictor. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT01456936.

Disequilibrating macro shocks affect different firms' prospects differently, increasing idiosyncratic variation in forward-looking stock returns before affecting economic growth. Consistent with most such shocks from 1947 to 2020 enhancing productivity, increased idiosyncratic stock return variation forecasts next-quarter real GDP growth, industrial production growth, and consumption growth both in-sample and out-of-sample. These effects persist after controlling for other leading economic indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystems generate a wide range of benefits for humans, including some market goods as well as other benefits that are not directly reflected in market activity1. Climate change will alter the distribution of ecosystems around the world and change the flow of these benefits2,3. However, the specific implications of ecosystem changes for human welfare remain unclear, as they depend on the nature of these changes, the value of the affected benefits and the extent to which communities rely on natural systems for their well-being4. Here we estimate country-level changes in economic production and the value of non-market ecosystem benefits resulting from climate-change-induced shifts in terrestrial vegetation cover, as projected by dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) driven by general circulation climate models. Our results show that the annual population-weighted mean global flow of non-market ecosystem benefits valued in the wealth accounts of the World Bank will be reduced by 9.2% in 2100 under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP2-6.0 with respect to the baseline no climate change scenario and that the global population-weighted average change in gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 is -1.3% of the baseline GDP. Because lower-income countries are more reliant on natural capital, these GDP effects are regressive. Approximately 90% of these damages are borne by the poorest 50% of countries and regions, whereas the wealthiest 10% experience only 2% of these losses.

The Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) was implemented as a first step towards a Banking Union in November 2014. This paper investigates the impact of the SSM on Eurozone banks' efficiency and position of best-practice frontier. It is based on a balanced panel analysis of 931 European bank-year observations from 2011 to 2017 (133 banks, seven years). The study uses Data Envelopment Analysis and a difference-in-differences approach to explore the evolution of banking performance. We found that the SSM had a negative impact on the efficiency levels of Eurozone banks, particularly in the year after the introduction of the mechanism. Additionally, we observed that the frontier formed by non-Eurozone European Union banks is more productive than the frontier of Eurozone banks in all the years analysed. Both efficiency and frontier position show evidence of a recovery trend in more recent years for both groups. We also found that while Equity-to-Asset Ratio, Return on Average Assets and Gross Domestic Product per capita positively impacted banks' efficiency, domestic credit provided by banks expressed as %GDP had a negative impact on efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We provide decadal estimates of GDP per capita for the Russian Empire from the 1690s to the 1880s, making it possible for the first time to compare the economic performance of one of the world's largest economies with other countries. Significant Russian economic growth before the 1760s resulted in catching-up on northwest Europe, but this was followed by a period of negative growth between the 1760s and 1800s and stagnation from the 1800s to the 1880s, leaving late-nineteenth century Russia further behind the West than at the beginning of the eighteenth century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Defence effort is often discussed in terms of relative military spending – as % of GDP. The aggregate nature of this measure, however, hides important within-budget dynamics. Specifically, states have to make hard choices about distributing their spending among personnel and equipment expenditures. NATO has adopted a recommendation that 20% of the defence budget should go to equipment. Our paper contributes to the emerging literature on determinants of personnel vs. equipment share. We perform panel data regression on NATO countries between 2005 and 2019. Our results indicate that (i) equipment is more elastic to overall military expenditures than personnel, and (which is a novel contribution of our paper) (ii) that larger All-Volunteer Forces (AVF) create demands for increased personnel spending even well after the transitioning period, (iii) How mature is the AVF plays no role, while relative personnel costs is an important predictor. The second result yields especially important implications for the renewed policy debates on the limits of the AVF model in the context of European security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a new fractional-order grey forecasting model with a temporal power term that can handle both annual and quarterly forecasting tasks for GDP is presented. The model's characteristic is that it has a dynamic simulation parameter, which can automatically adjust the structure of the model according to the need of the prediction task to achieve the purpose of accurate prediction. In addition, the fractional order parameter and power term parameter of the model play an important role in enhancing the adaptive performance of the model. In particular, an excellent intelligent optimization algorithm, the Ant lion optimizer, is used to solve the model's programming model to obtain the hyperparameters for modeling quickly. In this study, China's annual GDP and quarterly GDP are used as research objects to verify the validity of the new model. The experimental results show that all evaluation indicators of the proposed method are better than those of its competitors. Therefore, the model has some application value. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of the spatiotemporal evolution of regional development plays a vital role in regional coordination and sustainable development, and analyzing the characteristics of the spatiotemporal evolution of regional development in Jiangxi Province is of great significance for its deep integration into the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and Fujian, and its active undertaking of industries in developed regions. Based on the National Polar-orbiting Partnership–Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (NPP-VIIRS)-like nighttime lighting data from 2003 to 2022, this paper explores and discusses the nighttime lighting data as an effective indicator of regional development from the perspective of Jiangxi Province as a whole, using correlation analysis and multiple linear regression. Meanwhile, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of regional development in Jiangxi Province are explored by using spatial autocorrelation, hotspot analysis, standard deviation ellipse, and other research methods in 100 counties in Jiangxi Province. The results show the following: (1) The nighttime lighting data in Jiangxi Province shows a strong positive correlation with gross domestic product (GDP) and total population data, with correlation coefficients R2 of 0.957 and 0.896, respectively. (2) The GDP and total population of Jiangxi Province significantly impact nighttime lighting, and the regression model R2 reaches 0.983, indicating that the class NPP-VIIRS nighttime lighting data has an excellent explanatory ability for the regional development of Jiangxi Province. (3) The global autocorrelation index of nighttime lighting in each county in Jiangxi Province shows a significant positive correlation level. However, the value of this index still shows a gradually decreasing trend, indicating that the spatial heterogeneity is gradually increasing. As a whole, the hotspots in Jiangxi Province are mainly dominated by the city of Nanchang and supplemented by Ganzhou city, showing the development of two centers in the north and south. (4) The change in the trajectory of the center of gravity migration from 2003 to 2011 is also more apparent, with greater changes in the direction of regional development in Jiangxi Province. In the period 2012–2022, the direction of regional development is more stable, and the change in the migration of the center of gravity tends to be stable, indicating that the direction of regional development is clear at this stage, and there is little change in the overall direction of the economy and centripetal force. The study results provide important clues for an in-depth understanding of the regional development law in Jiangxi Province and are of some reference significance for relevant decision-making and planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to determine causal relationships between the level of productive credit, real deposits and money demand - all of them in real terms - and Gross National Product between 2006 and 2020. Design/methodology/approach: The vector autoregressive technique (VAR) was used, where data from real macroeconomic aggregates published by the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE) are correlated, such as productive credit, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, deposits and money demand. Findings: The results indicate that there is no causal relationship, in the Granger sense, between GDP and financial activity, but there is between the growth rate of real money demand per capita and the growth rate of total real deposits per capita. Originality/value: The study shows that bank credit mainly finances the operations of current assets and/or liabilities. In addition, economic agents use the banking system mainly to carry out transactional and precautionary activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper aims to examine the causation linking financial technology to economic growth in the East African Community states from 1997 to 2019. Design/methodology/approach: Autoregressive distributed lag is used. Gross domestic product per capita proxies economic growth, automated teller machines, point of sale, debit card ownership and mobile banking measure financial technology. Findings: The results unveil a significant relationship between financial technology and economic growth. The findings show bidirectional causality between automated teller machine and economic growth, with unidirectional causation from economic growth to point of sales and internet banking, mobile banking and government effectiveness to economic growth. The error correction term is negatively significant, demonstrating a long-term convergence between Fintech measures and economic growth. Research limitations/implications: The governments should effectively enact and implement policies that protect investments in financial technologies to boost economic growth in the East African Community countries. The government should reduce taxes on financial technology equipment and related services. The use of automated teller machine, debit card ownership and internet banking should be encouraged through cashless transactions. Financial institutions should adopt cashless operation policies to encourage the use of financial technologies. Originality/value: Research results on the bond between financial technology and economic growth are not conclusive. These studies demonstrate that technological innovations are double edged-swords, with both positive and negative sides. The results are conflicting; some reveal positive relationships, while others show negative links. Hence, research is required to fill the lacuna. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contact hypothesis and threat hypothesis are among the most influential theories of xenophobia. The former proposes that intergroup contact may reduce prejudice. The latter suggests that a large outgroup may increase xenophobic attitudes. Using data of a 2018 German representative sample (N = 2,016), we employed multilevel analyses. As predictors, we looked at outgroup size, gross domestic product, and unemployment rate on a county level. On the individual level, we included authoritarianism and a wide range of sociodemographic variables. Individual authoritarianism was identified as the strongest predictor of xenophobic attitudes. On the county level, a higher proportion of migrants was associated with lower values of xenophobia. This serves as an indicator for contact hypothesis. Our results suggest that contextualizing social psychological and micro-sociological theories and employing multilevel analyses are valuable tools to detangle the interplay of individual and contextual influences on xenophobic attitudes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, factors influencing the economic complexity (ECI) of Canada in the long term have been examined using the VECM, FMOLS, CCR, and DOLS methods from 1995 to 2022. The independent variables in the empirical model include Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Research and Development (R&D), Trade (TRD), Education (EDU), Political Stability (PS), and Government Effectiveness (GE). An increase in GDP, R&D, EDU and TRD demonstrates a strong positive effect on economic complexity. This emphasizes the crucial significance of production, productivity, efficiency and globalization in shaping the complex network of economic processes. PS and GE play crucial roles, as even slight improvements in these areas can have a positive impact on the ECI. This outcome highlights the beneficial impact of stable governance in promoting economic complexity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fact that the reserves of traditional energy sources will run out over the years and the problem of external dependency have led to the development of a renewable energy alternative. In addition to supply and cost problems, traditional energy sources can cause irreversible damage to nature. The need for energy is increasing day by day and is directly related to the existence of living communities, human beings and civilizations in every region of life and all over the world. The need for energy and energy-related activities is growing in order to realize economic growth, social improvement and to improve social welfare and health. This study consists of 30 annual observations between 1991 and 2020. While GDP is the Gross Domestic Product for the Turkish economy in constant dollars for 2015, RNE represents the percentage of renewable energy consumption in total energy consumption. In the study, whether the series are stationary or not was tested with Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests. It has seen that ADF and PP unit root test findings were obtained for the variables. In this case, it was determined that both variables in the research models were first order stationary variables. There is a statistical cointegration relationship between the variables at the 1% significance level. When the Toda-Yamamoto causality test was applied, it was determined that there was no causality from the renewable energy consumption rate to the Gross Domestic Product; A statistically significant causality was detected from Gross Domestic Product to renewable energy consumption rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) uses interest rates to control inflation. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model can contribute to inflation targeting objective and also determine the effects on banks and the economy. We improved the accuracy of the results from previous work on the banking sector CGE model by estimating the elasticities of the reduced form equations of the model instead of arbitrarily choosing them. Our results conform with the established view that lower policy rates lead to an increase in inflation and a reduction in banks' profits. However, because of the adverse supply shocks arising from the effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic, the increase in the GDP is crowded out. The CGE model is a useful tool for the SARB for monetary policy implications on financial stability, informing and providing analysis on its repo rate decision, and determining the consequent effects on the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The pursuit of happiness has been an essential goal of individuals and countries throughout history. In the past few years, researchers and academicians have developed a huge interest in the notion of a 'happiness economy' that aims to prioritize subjective well-being and life satisfaction over traditional economic indicators such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Over the past few years, many countries have adopted a happiness and well-being-oriented framework to re-design the welfare policies and assess environmental, social, economic, and sustainable progress. Such a policy framework focuses on human and planetary well-being instead of material growth and income. The present study offers a comprehensive summary of the existing studies on the subject, exploring how a happiness economy framework can help achieve sustainable development. For this purpose, a systematic literature review (SLR) summarised 257 research publications from 1995 to 2023. The review yielded five major thematic clusters, namely- (i) Going beyond GDP: Transition towards happiness economy, (ii) Rethinking growth for sustainability and ecological regeneration, (iii) Beyond money and happiness policy, (iv) Health, human capital and wellbeing and (v) Policy push for happiness economy. Furthermore, the study proposes future research directions to help researchers and policymakers build a happiness economy framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study draws on the investor protection literature to examine whether differences in a country's level of investor protections help explain cross-country variation in the extent to which macroeconomic forecasters consider aggregate changes in corporate profit margins when forecasting growth in GDP. We find that economies with stronger levels of investor protection have a higher association between changes in aggregate profit margin and GDP growth. Using a unique sample of analysts' GDP forecasts from 28 countries, we find that economies with stronger levels of investor protection have a lower association between changes in aggregate profit margin and errors in forecasts of GDP growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study investigated the impact of financial development in bringing the economic well-being, using the data of 10 selected developing countries, as a sample for the period from 1991 to 2017. However, the study utilizes the regression of group mean dynamic common correlated estimator (DCCE) by Chudik and Pesaran (2015) to analyse the said circumstance. For estimation, the present study is considering the major tycoons of financial development and their relevant areas that are significantly effecting the economic growth. However, the broad money (GAM1), domestic credit to private sector to GDP (GAM2), domestic credit to private sector by banks (GAM3), government's final consumption expenditures (GAFCE) and foreign direct investment GAFC are major contributors in attaining the GDP per capita (GADA). However, the estimation of the concerned circumstance was also evaluated in terms of shorter and longer run estimations. The results of the short– and long–run estimations also authenticate the results of DCCE estimations. The robustness of the results is verified with the help of Pedroni (2004) test, fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) test by Pedroni (2001) and dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) by Stock and Watson (1993). The robustness tests also verify the factors that are considered as the major players of financial development for uplifting the concerned economies. Selected developing countries have the potential for utilizing their financial development options to manage their growth at the economic level. For practical implications and for policymaking, the ingredients of this particular study can be endorsed to get the desired results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses OECD data to examine whether winning the men's FIFA World Cup boosts GDP growth, as claimed by analysts and media outlets concomitantly with every edition of this football competition. By implementing both an event‐study design and a synthetic difference‐in‐difference strategy, the analysis shows that winning the World Cup increases year‐over‐year GDP growth by at least 0.48 percentage points in the two subsequent quarters. This result seems primarily driven by enhanced export growth, which is consistent with a greater appeal enjoyed by national products and services on the global market after victory in a major sporting event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fluctuations in crude oil prices exert substantial economic influence, necessitating adept responses and strategic policy formulations to mitigate potential adverse consequences. Kilian has emphasized the heterogeneous nature of oil price shocks, wherein price rises can yield varied effects contingent upon underlying determinants. Consequently, it is imperative for investors, economists, and policymakers to disentangle real price shocks and assess their impact on macroeconomic aggregates. This study employs a two-stage approach grounded in a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, inspired by Kilian's framework, to examine and contrast the repercussions of various crude oil price shocks on the actual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) in countries that are either net importers or exporters of oil. Our empirical results reveal that variations in real oil prices are more substantially influenced by shocks due to aggregate demand and precautionary demand, as opposed to shocks originating from the oil supply side. Additionally, aggregate demand shocks lead to significant GDP surges for most oil-importing countries and all oil-exporting countries, while only leading to continuous CPI increases in oil-importing countries. Precautionary demand shocks initially boost GDP in oil-exporting countries but lead to GDP reductions in oil-importing countries. Precautionary demand shocks sustain CPI increases in the oil-importing countries, though with variations in significant durations, but have mixed effects in oil-exporting countries, with significant CPI increases observed in Canada and Norway. Concerning the implications for policymakers and investors, the findings underscore the importance of considering variations in response patterns to crude oil price shocks based on their drivers and the country's status as an oil importer or exporter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By using the composite coincident indicator, we document the real-time nowcasting performance of Latvian GDP growth during the COVID-19 period. The Latvian Economic Barometer accurately predicted GDP growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially, in the second and third quarters of 2020, a period that proved challenging for more sophisticated econometric models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bacterial drug resistance is becoming increasingly serious, this study aims to investigate the relationship between the resistance rate of erythromycin-resistant Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP) and reasons for the epidemic under complex geographical and climatic factors in China. Data spanning from 2014 to 2021, including drug resistance rates, isolate rates, meteorological variables, and demographic statistics, were collected from the China Antimicrobial Resistance Monitoring System, the China Statistical Yearbook and China Meteorological Website. Our analysis involved nonparametric tests and the construction of multifaceted regression models for rigorous multivariate analysis. Single-factor analysis revealed significant differences in the resistance rate and isolate rate of erythromycin-resistant SP across different regions characterized by Hu Huanyong lines or different climate types. Multivariate regression analysis indicated positive correlations between the drug resistance rate and temperature, Subtropical climate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Hu Huanyong line, and the highest temperature in the past period (Tm); the isolate rate showed a positive correlation with regional GDP and a negative correlation with monsoon climate. The model developed in this study provides valuable insights into the resistance rate and potential relationships of erythromycin-resistant SP under complex meteorological conditions in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the impact of socio-economic factors on national AI strategies in India, Bangladesh, Germany, UAE, Egypt, and the USA through quantitative content analysis. The analysis explores the correlation between GDP per capita, the share of manufacturing, and the frequency of risk-related terms in AI strategy documents. It is found that wealthier nations emphasize AI risks more, correlating with deeper technological integration into their societal structures. Conversely, the emphasis on AI risks shows a weak correlation with the share of manufacturing, indicating broader AI impacts in service-oriented sectors. Lower-middle-income countries appear more optimistic, focusing on AI's economic benefits. The study underscores the need for balanced AI strategies that promote innovation while ensuring worker well-being, advocating for adaptive governance frameworks that enhance workplace safety and efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As worldwide food prices rise, there is a growing interest in understanding the effect of these increases on households. Building on previous work, while applying recent methodological advances, we focus our attention on México during the COVID-19 pandemic. We document these price escalations for a basket of foods representative of Mexican households' diets. The price increases are substantial across the basket, ranging from 20 percent in meat to 40 percent in tortilla. Using these estimates, we calculate the welfare effect from the recent food price escalation to cost households $17.07 billion annually, close to 1.5 percent of Mexico's Gross Domestic Product in 2020. We estimate households would need to increase their food expenditure budgets by 28.66 percent, the compensating variation, to achieve pre-price increase utility levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Odisha has experienced three distinct growth regimes during 1991-2019, namely, 1991-2002, 2003-10 and 2011-19. Odisha outshone the national economy and the 15 other major states in terms of growth rates in Gross State Domestic Product per capita (GSDPPC) and Human Development Index (HDI) during 2003-10. However, during 2011–2019, Odisha witnessed a significant growth slowdown vis-à-vis the national economy but such downslide in GSDPPC and HDI is not significantly different from the major states. The first Naveen Patnaik decade saw an upsurge which was possibly due to good luck rather than good policy, and the second one marked a downslide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, Okun's law is empirically assessed for the 257 NUTS2 (Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics) European regions over the period 2010–2020, which is characterised by intense economic, societal and political changes as a consequence of the 2009 economic crisis, the austerity measures followed and the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak. Okun's law equation is estimated using instrumental variables regression, employing a two-step methodology: (1) a panel regression estimator to obtain predicted variables of the endogenous variable (Gross Domestic Product (GDP) % change) by including the appropriate instruments in the model, (2) a linear-mixed fixed, random coefficient model and empirical Bayes predictions for the random intercepts and random slopes to obtain Okun's coefficients. Study results confirm the Okun's law for all regions under consideration and suggest that unemployment responses to economic growth differ among regions; either due to business cycle effects or structural labour-market factors. For regions depicting the strongest inverse impact of GDP on unemployment, a cyclical recovery is expected to be accompanied by a reduction in unemployment; while the weakest inverse relationship observed is associated with structural factors (i.e. industry composition, labour-force skills, long-term unemployment). At policymaking level, considering regional labour-market idiosyncrasies is of utmost importance to differentiate labour policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth and national debt are like two faces of the same coin. The national debt is the major source of growth of GDP. GDP is completely paralyzed in the absence of national debt. The national debt in turn is hugely dependent on foreign funding. The GDP is growing faster as a result of these investments. It is believed that the external debt will never be entirely settled. It takes some time for the agreement to mature before external investments become available in response to demand. The primary topic of this study is the delay in foreign investment’s real arrival and how it affects the dynamics of GDP and national debt. We investigate this impact with a delay parameter τ. The stability analysis is done on the system and the nonzero equilibrium is computed. For a crucial delay parameter value, Hopf bifurcation is seen. The research plays a significant role in economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global risk assessments of economic losses by natural disasters while considering various land uses is essential. However, sector-specific, high-resolution pixel-level economic data are not yet available globally to assess exposure to local disasters such as floods. In this study, we employed new land-use data to construct global, spatially distributed map of sector-specific gross domestic product (GDP). We developed three global GDP maps in 2010, 2015, and 2020 for service, industry, and agriculture sector, with 30 arcsec resolution. Firstly, we found that the spatial relationship between the distribution of industrial GDP and urban areas, where the service GDP is highly concentrated, varies across countries. For example, in the United States, industrial GDP is widely dispersed regardless of urban areas, whereas in India, industrial GDP is concentrated in proximity to urban areas. Secondly, we evaluated the GDP map by subnational regional statistics of Thailand, where validation data are accessible. Traditional GDP maps relying solely on population distribution exhibited 63.0 % relative error of the sectoral GDP in each subnational region to regional statistical data, which the new sector-specific GDP map reduced to 26.2 %. Subsequently, we assessed the map in conjunction with sector-level business interruption (BI) losses resulting from river flooding. Our estimation of sector-level losses revealed that the sectoral ratio to the total loss varied significantly depending on the spatial distribution of flood hazards. The estimated total loss became closer to the reported value when the new GDP map was used, while sectoral ratios of losses still had some differences from the reported ratios suggesting the need for further improving the procedures of loss-estimation models. These global sectoral GDP maps (SectGDP30) are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13991673 (Shoji et al., 2024). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecosystem services (ES) such as carbon storage (CS), soil conservation (SC), habitat quality (HQ), and water yield (WY) play a crucial role in maintaining ecological balance and supporting sustainable regional development. With increasing environmental changes, understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of these services and their driving factors has become essential in environmental science. This study focuses on the Nanchang metropolitan area, quantifying CS, SC, HQ, and WY from 2000 to 2020. It explores the impacts of major factors, including climate, topography, and social aspects, on the spatial heterogeneity of ES. The results reveal that between 2000 and 2020, CS and HQ decreased by 0.1385×108 tons/ha and 0.0507, respectively, while SC and WY increased by 2.4754×109 tons/ha and 1.6668×1010 m3, respectively. Notable spatial heterogeneity exists in the correlation between driving factors and changes in ES. The spatial distribution of ESs is higher in mountainous regions compared to central plains. Among human factors, population (POP) and gross domestic product (GDP) predominantly influenced changes in CS and HQ, whereas climate and POP drove changes in SC. Changes in WY were primarily affected by climate and topography. These findings suggest a need to focus on key driving factors to formulate targeted land policies aimed at enhancing the ES value in the Nanchang metropolitan area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building on the evidence from the first paper in this Series highlighting the fundamental importance of healthy and nurturing environments for children's growth and development in the next 1000 days (ages 2–5 years), this paper summarises the benefits and costs of key strategies to support children's development in this age range. The next 1000 days build on the family-based and health-sector based interventions provided in the first 1000 days and require broader multisectoral programming. Interventions that have been shown to be particularly effective in this age range are the provision of early childhood care and education (ECCE), parenting interventions, and cash transfers. We show that a minimum package of 1 year of ECCE for all children would cost on average less than 0·15% of low-income and middle-income countries' current gross domestic product. The societal cost of not implementing this package at a national and global level (ie, the cost of inaction) is large, with an estimated forgone benefit of 8–19 times the cost of investing in ECCE. We discuss implications of the overall evidence presented in this Series for policy and practice, highlighting the potential of ECCE programming in the next 1000 days as an intervention itself, as well as a platform to deliver developmental screening, growth monitoring, and additional locally required interventions. Providing nurturing care during this period is crucial for maintaining and further boosting children's progress in the first 1000 days, and to allow children to reach optimal developmental trajectories from a socioecological life-course perspective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThis article examines and analyses the challenges faced by Southern African Development Community (SADC) member states while implementing the organisation’s Trade Protocol, which it adopted in 1996 to increase intra-regional trade. The focus is on member states who have signed and ratified the Protocol but struggle to honour it. This means that the SADC member states that have not acceded to the Protocol are not the subject of analysis. While several studies have been undertaken to explore regional economic integration in SADC, the challenges emanating from the domestic circumstances faced by members within the context of regional integration have not been properly examined. This article argues that the failure of some member states, including Malawi, Zimbabwe, and Angola, to honour their commitments to the Trade Protocol is not unjustifiable; however, there must be a willingness to make certain concessions for the region’s intra-trade agenda to be a success. This article adopted a qualitative approach as it poses an exploratory question. The sources used include SADC documents, World Bank reports (on gross domestic product and World Development Indicators), and publications, including policies, protocols, communiques, statements, books, and journal and newspaper articles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing nexus between economic growth and the resultant environmental and health challenges are of particular concern for developing countries. However, there is less evidence on the net effect of economic growth (EG) on air pollution, health spending, or vice‐versa in the Asia‐Pacific region. Therefore, this study explores important research questions: (a) Whether there exists any simultaneous relationship between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (a proxy for EG), carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita, and health expenditure (HE) per capita?; and (b) Does there exist any unobserved distributional heterogeneity across the Asia‐Pacific region that influence the elasticity? To address these questions, we examine the interface between GDP per capita, CO2 emissions per capita, and HE per capita in 52 countries from the Asia‐Pacific region for the period 2000–2014 using bootstrapping fixed‐effects (FEs) quantile regression model. Our results show that there is a variation in distributional effects between HE, EG, and CO2 emissions. By and large, there is a positive relationship between HE, EG, and CO2 emission across quantiles, though the coefficient values differ, and elasticity could be greater or lesser than one. It is also observed that growth raises health spending and increases pollution in lower‐income countries. On the contrary, income growth also promotes the adoption of green technology, reduces pollution, improves population health, and reduces healthcare spending in higher income countries. The study brings out some important suggestions from public policy perspectives to streamline the healthcare and sanitation sectors, and environmental quality across countries as integral aspects of sustainable growth strategies and the achievement of the United Nations SDG Agenda 2030. The findings and suggestions assume added significance in the post‐pandemic COVID‐19 scenario, as it calls for revamping the healthcare management systems across countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To estimate the performance of China in terms of energy use efficiency during the first two decades of the twenty-first century while also taking into consideration pollutant emission, this study uses a panel data set covering 30 provincial administrative regions in mainland China for the period 2000–2016. To overcome problems with the DEA-based method, this study proposes an SFA-based model that can estimate environmental energy efficiency while maintaining the regularity constraints imposed on undesirable output, by using Bayesian technique. Our empirical results show that the average value of environmental energy efficiency during the whole sample period changed from 0.7858 in 2000 to 0.7726 in 2016, with an average value of 0.7812 over the whole period. This result is in sharp contrast with findings based on the often-used GDP/energy and GDP/undesirable output indexes, both of which show an improving trend over same sample period. This study suggests that more sophisticated indexes should be used to evaluate meaningful energy efficiency and environmental protection-related performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A common conundrum discussed in economic research revolves around the fact that nations endowed with plentiful natural resources often exhibit a lower gross domestic product (GDP). This conundrum is commonly called the "resource curse", where most empirical studies about the effects primarily focused on developed economies. At the same time, limited data is available regarding a burgeoning oil-exporting nation like the Republic of Yemen. This research endeavor aims to investigate the relationship between oil price Changes and Yemen's economic growth. Utilizing annual data spanning from 1990 to 2019, the study employs the auto-regressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to establish the long-term connection between oil price volatility and economic growth over both short and long timeframes. This study's outcomes indicate that oil price Changes have a significant positive relationship with Yemen's economic growth in both the long and short run. Oil rents show a significant negative relationship with economic growth in both the long and short run. The results of GLM, RLS, and GMM robustness checks are consistent with our model results. Based on these findings, we suggest that Yemen should diversify its economy by investing in agriculture and tourism, and focus on human capital, education, and research and development. These steps could reduce the economy's dependence on oil and enhance sustainable economic growth. These empirical insights and suggestions are particularly useful for policymakers as they help build sound external and economic policies to sustain long-term economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background/Objectives: The importance of the social determinants of health (SODHs) in diabetic and nondiabetic neuropathy has recently gained more attention. This retrospective study examined the correlation of incident diabetic neuropathy and neuropathy of other etiologies with SODH in Romania. Methods: All cases with the primary or secondary discharge diagnosis codes of neuropathy reported across Romania in 2019 were analyzed. The crude incidence rate was calculated per 100,000 persons for the whole population resident in Romania on the 1 July 2019. As SODHs sex, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, unemployment rate, and the number of physicians/1000 persons were evaluated. Results: In total, 207,026 hospitalizations with a discharge diagnosis of neuropathy were recorded. Of these, 80,480 had a discharge diagnosis of diabetic neuropathy, with an incidence rate of 414.97 cases/100,000 persons. The incidence rate of diabetic neuropathy by county was correlated with the corresponding GDP (p = 0.013) and unemployment rate (p = 0.001). By sex, the correlation with GDP remained significant only for women (p = 0.010), while the correlation with unemployment rate remained significant in both sexes. No correlation was observed with the number of physicians/1000 persons/county. The incidence rate of neuropathy of other etiology was 652.49 cases/100,000 persons. No correlation between the incidence rate of neuropathy of other etiology by county and the corresponding GDP, unemployment rate or number of physicians/1000 persons was observed neither in the total sample nor by sex. Conclusions: Lower socioeconomic status was correlated with a higher incidence rate of hospitalized diabetic neuropathy and not with neuropathies of other etiologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The economic development of N-11 countries has been significantly influenced by the contributions of natural resources (NAT) and economic globalization (EG). These countries have been facing drastic environmental problems for several years. Hence, it is imperative to ascertain the environmental ramifications of natural resource extraction activities in the N-11 nations. In doing so, this study examines the impact of gross domestic product (GDP), EG, and NAT on ecological footprints (EF) within the time frame of 1971 to 2022 in the group of N-11 countries. After verifying the cross-sectional dependence, this work found the integration of all variables at first difference. To provide short and long run econometric results; this study utilizes cross sectional autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL). The findings indicate that the presence of NAT rent has a detrimental impact (0.03%) on the ecological quality within the N-11 nations. Moreover, it can be argued that both EG and GDP exhibit environmentally sustainable characteristics over an extended period by (0.03% and − 3.12%) respectively. This study does not provide evidence for the presence of an N-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) in the N-11 nations. Based on the findings, a policy recommendation is proposed for the nations in question. These countries must immediately implement and enforce robust environmental laws while fostering a heightened sense of environmental consciousness. It is imperative for emerging economies to increase their investments to explore and adopt efficient technologies in various economic sectors, including mining. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The properties of multi‐horizon forecasts are investigated by specifying and estimating a model nesting rational forecasts, as well as deviations from rationality resulting from horizon‐specific biases and idiosyncratic errors. Identification of the model's parameters is achieved by combining information on forecasts for a given point in time with different information sets, and forecasts at different points in time based on the same information set. Both sets of forecasts are used to estimate the model's parameters by generalised method of moments. A test of rationality is proposed with the twin advantages of circumventing parameter identification and boundary issues. The finite sample properties of the GMM estimator and the rationality test are also investigated. Applying the approach to US GDP growth forecasts of the Survey of Professional Forecasters, the empirical results show that forecasts deviate from rationality over all forecast horizons, with the strength of the deviations from rationality increasing with the forecast horizon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global statistical irrigation modeling relies on geospatial data and traditionally adopts a discrete global grid based on longitude–latitude reference. However, this system introduces area distortion, which may lead to biased results. We propose using the ISEA3H geodesic grid based on hexagonal cells, enabling efficient and distortion-free representation of spherical data. To understand the impact of discrete global grid choice, we employ a non-parametric statistical framework, utilizing random forest methods, to identify the main drivers of historical global irrigation expansion using, among other data, outputs from the global dynamic vegetation model Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land (LPJml). Irrigation is critical for food security amidst growing populations, changing consumption patterns, and climate change. It significantly boosts crop yields but also alters the water cycle and global water resources. Understanding past irrigation expansion and its drivers is vital for global change research, resource assessment, and the prediction of future trends. We compare predictive accuracy, simulated irrigation patterns, and identification of irrigation drivers between the two grid systems. Using the ISEA3H geodesic grid system increases the predictive accuracy by up to 28 % compared to the longitude–latitude grid. The model identifies population density, potential productivity increase, evaporation, precipitation, and water discharge as key drivers of historical global irrigation expansion. Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita also shows some influence. We conclude that the geodesic discrete global grid system significantly affects predicted irrigation patterns and identification of drivers and thus has the potential to enhance statistical modeling, which warrants further exploration in future research across related fields. This analysis lays the foundation for comprehending historical global irrigation expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decision to restrict tourist arrivals must be carefully tailored to the unique circumstances and objectives of each destination. This paper aims to assess the economic impacts of limiting tourist arrivals in an overcrowded destination like the Balearic Islands. It also aims to analyze the necessary increase in tourism expenditure to counterbalance the decline in GDP. Using the input-output methodology, we will simulate different scenarios to evaluate the effects of implementing limits on tourist arrivals. In the least restrictive scenario, setting a limit of 2.5 million tourist arrivals per month in 2017 would have affected only July and August, resulting in a 2.56% decline in arrivals. This reduction in tourism consumption would have led to a 0.72% decrease in production and a 0.66% decrease in value added, both directly and indirectly. Considering direct, indirect, and induced effects, overall production would have decreased by 1.09%, and value added by 1.07%. However, by simulating a 1% increase in average tourist spending in real terms, we could offset the decrease in tourist numbers and avoid the undesired impact on the GDP. These findings shed light on the economic impacts of tourism degrowth and explore demarketing strategies to foster more sustainable tourism destinations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]