1. Dairy cattle replacement under changing agri-environmental policies
- Author
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Kulkarni, Pranav Shrikant
- Subjects
culling ,dairy cattle ,herd management ,optimization ,agri-environmental policies ,longevity - Abstract
The Netherlands is one of the world’s leaders in commercial dairy production. Dutch dairy farmers are increasingly challenged by evolving agri-environmental legislations to adapt their farming strategies and become more sustainable. Policy changes, like the abolition of milk quotas and the introduction of the phosphate rights system have had a major impact on the structure and operations of Dutch dairy farms. One of the management measures farmers use to adjust their farming strategies and farm structure within the legally established production framework is culling and replacing dairy cows. Replacement of dairy cows can be defined as the removal of producing dairy cow (culling) and replacing it by a suitable heifer that is expected to perform better than the culled cow. Most dairy farmers in the Netherlands have a closed system wherein, they breed and rear their own replacement stock. Therefore, heifer rearing, and dairy cow replacement strategies are strongly interlinked. In the past, complex models have been developed to study and support not only replacement decisions but also heifer rearing strategies. However, given the considerable time lag between the decision to keep and rear a female calf to replacement heifer and the decision to replace a dairy cow by this reared heifer, it has been difficult to define optimal strategies at herd level for the replacement problem. Moreover, regardless of the models developed, dairy farmers tend to make replacement decisions based on their intuition while relying on rules of thumb. Given that future farm goals must include further reductions in environmental burden while maintaining economic viability, a revisit of optimal dairy cow replacement strategies by owned reared heifers is sorely needed. Hence, the aim of this thesis was to (1) gain insights in the factors and reasons for culling and replacement of Dutch dairy cows under changing agri-environmental policies and, (2) to use these insights to explore the consequences of policy constraints on replacement strategies. To achieve these aims, five sub-objectives were formulated as follows:1. To analyze the relevancy of cow-level risk factors for lifetime survival of Dutch dairy cows representing production, reproduction, and health performances under perturbations due to national policy changes related to the milk quota abolishment of 2015 and the phosphate regulations since 2017. 2. To gain insights into the cross-sectional associations between annual performance indicators of Dutch dairy farms and their corresponding magnitudes of (i) overall culling and (ii) primiparous cow culling after the introduction of the herd size restricting phosphate regulation in the Netherlands.3. To (i) determine the reasons behind the culling of cattle on Dutch dairy farms, (ii) to determine whether Dutch dairy farmers follow specific culling strategies (plan) and (iii) if so, to evaluate whether they intend to change their strategies in the near future.4. To study on herd level the economic impact of suboptimal replacement decisions due to a constrained replacement heifer supply while accounting for the interdependency among dairy cows within the herd.5. To gain insights in the economic consequences of different heifer rearing strategies under the current Dutch phosphate rights policy.In Chapter 2, a survival analysis of Dutch dairy cows was conducted on national level using longitudinal data to analyze cow-level risk factors under perturbations due to national policy changes. The associated cow-level risk factors for culling such as lactation value (relative production level), parity number, rolling average of inseminations over all parities, very high fat-protein ratio (highFPR) and very low fat-protein ratio (lowFPR) in early lactation, test-day somatic cell count, were fitted in the model. Along with these, a factor representing three target policy periods, namely Milk Quota period (MQ), Post-Milk Quota period (PMQ) and Phosphate regulation period (PH) were fitted. The mean survival age for all producing cows was 441 weeks overall. The predicted median survival time for the policy periods MQ, PMQ and PH were 273 weeks, 271 weeks, and 256 weeks, respectively. Risk factors such as lactation value, parity and highFPR, rolling average of inseminations over all parities were positively associated with survival time in all three policy periods. Risk factors such as test-day somatic cell count and lowFPR were negatively associated with survival time in all three policy periods.In Chapter 3, associations between the performance of dairy farms and their corresponding culling rates under the herd size constraint as imposed in 2018 by the new phosphate regulation in the Netherlands were investigated. Using rank correlation and logistic regression, associations between 10 farm performance indicators (from 4 areas of longevity, production, reproduction, and udder health) and 4 culling proportions (for overall and primiparous cow culling). Results showed very low-rank conformity (
- Published
- 2024