Search

Aim: Invasions of non‐native insects can have substantial impacts on agriculture, forestry, human health and biodiversity with considerable economic and environmental consequences. To understand the causes of these invasions, it is important to quantify the relative influence of principal drivers such as international imports and climatic effects. Location: North America, Chile, Europe, Australia, New Zealand and Japan. Time Period: 1881–2020. Methods: To evaluate the relative contributions of various factors in explaining global variation in numbers of non‐native insect establishments in different world regions, we conducted two multivariate regression analyses to quantify temporal changes in family‐level composition and native ranges of established non‐native species in several world regions. Results: There were temporal changes in the family‐level composition of non‐native species assemblages. Prior to 1900, invasions were dominated by scale insects, subsequently shifting to a more diverse set of species, except in North America, which had relatively small compositional change over time compared to other regions. Spatial and temporal variation in the composition of established species was associated with differences in the origin of imports and climatic factors, each explaining 26.3% and 27.4% of the total variation, respectively. The analysis of native ranges of non‐native species indicated that there was no consistent temporal variation across all regions. Established species in New Zealand were predominantly native to Australasia and species in North America and Chile were mainly from Europe. Non‐native species in Europe mainly originated from the Nearctic region while those in Japan and Australia generally originated from multiple regions. Climatic factors in the destination regions had a primary effect (66.3%) on variation in the native range of established species, although imports also had substantial effects (45.4%). Main Conclusions: Geographical variation in climate and imports act together as drivers of establishment success for non‐native insects in all six regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently trade sanctions are drastically affecting world commerce, economies, industries, companies, and potentially the well-being of individuals around the world. Even global peace is threatened by the growing frictions among major countries. The question we explore is how politically motivated economic sanctions affect commercial interactions within targeted countries. We focus on the case of American economic sanctions of the last half century. To the task we apply findings regarding negotiation processes and outcomes between more than 1200 experienced businesspeople in twenty-one cultural regions and countries around the world. Economic outcomes in intracultural buyer-seller negotiation simulations were found to be lower in the six cultural regions on which the United States has applied broadly comprehensive sanctions. We conclude that this “hidden” damage done can hurt international cooperation well beyond the period of the sanctions. The scope and relevance of the work is very broad, connecting concepts and theories from political science, economics, trade, anthropology, marketing science, negotiation, and, of course, business ethics. Our findings are useful for theorists, policy makers and managers of firms considering market entry to recently sanctioned countries. Specific guidance for amelioration of the negative and largely unintended consequences of sanctions on target countries are provided.

The subject of the study is the conceptual, theoretical, empirical, methodological and applied foundations of the international legal status of the WTO in the context of economic globalisation. Methodology. General scientific and specific legal methods were used in the research process. With the help of the analysis the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of international trade are determined as a prerequisite for the determination of the international legal status of the WTO in the conditions of economic globalisation. The synthesis ensured the formation of characteristic features of the legal status of the WTO as an international organisation. The comparative legal method allowed to identify the common and distinctive features of international organisations in this area, as well as to clarify the defining aspects of the legal personality of the WTO in the modern international legal field. The formal-legal method created the conditions for formulating conclusions on the effectiveness of the implementation of the legal personality of the WTO in the sphere of ensuring the rules of international trade in the conditions of economic globalisation. The purpose of this article is to identify the characteristics of the international legal status of the WTO under the conditions of economic globalisation. The results of the study showed that the international legal status of the WTO in the conditions of economic globalisation is based on the basic principles of legal regulation of international trade and is mediated by the purpose of activity, legal personality, the order of formation and powers of the governing bodies, principles and procedural aspects of the functioning of this organisation. Conclusion. The international legal status of the WTO in the conditions of economic globalisation is considered from the standpoint of a dichotomous approach to this category from the standpoint of economics and law. Economic preconditions for the introduction of international trade rules in the form of GATT, 1947 and WTO research through the analysis of primarily statistical data of the periods 1947-1948 and 2017-2022, reflected in the consolidated information data of the WTO, as well as the study of individual theoretical considerations of scientists. Statistical indicators show clear signs of globalisation of the world economy, which is mediated by international trade operations, as a result of which the creation of transparent mechanisms for the circulation of goods within the framework of trade activities as a kind of existence of the world community through various static and dynamic legal constructions, among which WOT occupies almost the most significant importance along with other international organisations. The above is demonstrated by the example of the impact of COVID-2019 on international trade, the corresponding reaction to which was the revitalisation of trade processes, primarily in the field of pharmaceutical industry products. The above has covered the main principles of international legal regulation of trade relations at the formal and substantive level, which is carried out at the universal international legal, regional international legal and national levels. In connection with the differentiation of the components of the legal personality of the WTO, the definition of international legal capacity is given as the ability of a subject of international activity to acquire appropriate rights for itself by its own actions and to exercise them independently, as well as to create corresponding obligations for itself by its actions, to fulfil them independently and to bear responsibility in case of their non-fulfilment. In terms of the nature of this organisation, its place among other similar international organisations, in particular those operating within the framework of the UN, was invented by the field of activity, where attention is paid to the predominance of the latter in order to maintain international peace and security. The purpose of the activities of the WTO is to create and ensure international, multilateral, open, based on fair competition and other features inherent to trade in modern society, where the quasi-procedural moment, based on the replacement of a number of bilateral and multilateral agreements, is an external manifestation of such activity. It characterises the original and derivative legal instruments of the WTO's operation, defines the socio-economic and legal purpose of its activities, defines the structure and powers of the WTO's governing bodies, and focuses the organisation's legal personality on the procedural aspect of its activities, in particular through the implementation of relevant principles, among which the principle of maximum contribution plays a leading role.

The proposed article aims to present a comprehensive overview of the problems and prospects of world trade, aimed at understanding the challenges it faces and substantiating the possibilities for its further development in the modern world. It is determined that the EU, China and the USA are the world’s largest exporters of goods. The dynamics of exports and imports of goods and services, the trade balance between the United States and the European Union, foreign trade by sectors of the economy are studied. The milestones of trade policy between the USA and the EU are outlined. The factors of recovery of the world economy after the COVID-19 pandemic are considered. It is substantiated that the full-scale war in Ukraine, the rupture of trade relations between the United States and China and the consequences of Brexit played a significant role in the formation of the main trends in bilateral trade on a global scale. A forecast of the development of world trade is carried out, emphasis is placed on the factors that will have both a positive and a negative impact on its dynamics. In particular, among the factors that will have a positive impact on the development of world trade, the following are allocated: growth in demand for certain types of services; trade and industrial policy reflecting the so-called «green transition» to an environmentally sustainable global economy. This will help increase trade flows of goods and services related to the production of energy-efficient goods and renewable energy sources. On the other hand, against the backdrop of the negative impact of geopolitical factors, including geopolitical tensions in the world and the war in Ukraine, industrial production is expected to slow down, with many economies maintaining relatively high interest rates as a result of ongoing inflationary pressures. The growing level of debt burden of the world’s economies, combined with high interest rates, will continue to have a negative impact on the macroeconomic conditions of many countries, which will lead to an increase in the cost of borrowing, and the policy of internal orientation in large economies may lead to increased restrictive measures in international trade, which will restrain the growth of its volumes.

The relevance of the work is connected with the status of barite as a critical mineral raw material, as accepted in most industrialized countries. Purpose: to study the dynamics of commodity flows (production, import, export, consumption) of barite throughout the countries, its world prices, sources of barite raw materials and the prospects for its production and consumption. Methods: statistical, graphic, logical. Results. The production of barite raw materials from 0,3 Mt/year in 1920s grew intensively and reached 8.0–9.6 Mt/year in the 2010. Initially, both the mining and processing of barite raw materials industries were located directly in the USA, Germany, Britain, Italy, and France. These countries accounted for over 90% of world production and 80–95% of world consumption. In the 1950s, a sharp increase in the consumption of barite as a weighting agent for drilling fluids began. This led to an increase in its production in large oil and gas producing countries (the USA, the USSR, Mexico, Canada), export flows (from Morocco and other countries), and cessation of exports from Germany, Britain and France. The share of international trade in barite also increased from 0,3–0,5 Mt/year in the 1950s to 4.2–6.0 Mt/year (55–70% of his income) in the 2010s. The cumulative world production of barite between 1920–2020 is expected to be 550 Mt. World barite resources in deposits prepared for exploitation are estimated at 740 Mt. The group of critical countries importing barite raw materials (imports over 50%) represents 38.8% of the GDP of the world economy (USA, European Union, Germany, Italy, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Kuwait, Norway, Oman, Algeria, Malaysia, Indonesia, UAE, Azerbaijan, Argentina). The group of countries exporting barite raw materials includes 31.0% of the GDP of the world economy (India, Morocco, China, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Iran, Laos, Mexico, Pakistan, Bulgaria. A decrease in the criticality of barite raw material supply is possible as a result in reducing consumption (Japan, France, Italy and the Czech Republic), increasing world barite production with the commissioning of new deposits, given the significant prepared resources of this raw material in Iran, Kazakhstan and Pakistan, as well as the search for new barite deposits, including chemogenic marine bottom sediments.

Abstract In recent years, the global trade landscape has undergone significant changes, particularly in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis and more recently as a consequence of Covid-19 pandemic. To understand the structure of international trade and the impact of these changes, this study applies a combination of network analysis and causal inference techniques to the most extensive coverage of available data in terms of time span and spatial extension. The study is conducted in two phases. The first one explores the structure of international trade by providing a comprehensive analysis of the World Trade Network (WTN) from various perspectives, including the identification of key players and clusters of strongly interacting countries. The second phase investigates the impact of the rising role of China on the global structure of the WTN. Overall, the results highlight a structural change in the WTN, evidenced by a variety of network metrics, around China’s rapid growth years. Additionally, the reshaping of the WTN is not only accompanied by a significant increase in trade flows between China and its partners, but also by a corresponding decline in trade among non-China-partner countries. These results suggest that China played a pivotal role in the restructuring of the WTN in the first decades of this century. The findings of this study shed light on the interpretation of the rapidly changing landscape of global trade.

Economic complexity and machine learning have recently become popular approaches for analysing international trade. However, for effective use of machine learning in relation to economic complexity and policymaking, it is important to understand what are the key features for predictions. In this framework, this article addresses the issue of the interpretability of results obtained with a machine learning technique—namely, matrix completion—when applied to economic complexity, specifically in predicting revealed comparative advantages (RCAs) of countries in different product categories. Shapley values are used to measure the role each country plays in predicting the RCAs of other countries. Countries relevant for prediction may differ from countries whose RCA values are similar to those of the country of interest when a standard similarity measure such as cosine similarity is used. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach to identifying comparable countries by focussing our analysis on export diversification into complex goods of selected European countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of External Economic Bulletin / Külgazdaság is the property of KOPINT Konjunktura Kutatasi Alapitvany and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The energy problem in the conditions of modern economic development has acquired a particularly large scale: this is due to the elevated level of environmental pollution from conventional energy sources and their limited amount in the Earth’s interior. This has forced countries to develop new, renewable energy sources. However, it is relevant to consider the prospects for the development of energy exporting countries, namely oil supplier states. Thus, the purpose of this study is to forecast the development trends of these countries, considering the current pace of introduction of renewable energy sources in the world. Main methods for authoring the paper were modelling and forecasting, considering the model of the future development of the oil market designed in this paper. The authors conclude that the demand for oil, at least in the short and medium term, will increase. This is due to a considerable projected increase in global energy demand, which cannot be met only through the development of renewable energy sources. In this case, most oil-exporting countries may experience an increase in cash receipts over the future. However, authors believes that it is better for these countries, especially the OPEC member states and Azerbaijan, to start pursuing a policy of export diversification to become less dependent in their economic well-being on trends in the energy market and have more sources of income in case of problems in this market. The paper allows taking a fresh look at current changes in the oil market and the role of renewable energy sources in its development

Historical explanations of the rise and expansion of the first Saudi state have given Wahhabism pride of place. Principally, they have dwelt on religion and ideology, emphasising the role of the eighteenth-century theologian Muḥammad ibn ʿAbd al-Wahhāb and arguing that his charisma, puritanical zeal, exclusivist approach to monotheistic worship, or neo-orthodox reform programme inspired a series of consequential political and military actions, beginning with the foundation of a theocratic emirate in Dirʿiyya and culminating in the conquest of much of Arabia. However much Wahhabi doctrines might have motivated warfare and state expansion, this article contends that the rise of the Saudi state depended on the spread of a new weapon—the matchlock gun. It considers the significance of firearms in regional warfare and, after making the case that they were likely to have been imported, builds up the revisionist argument that Najd had significant connections to world trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is devoted to the causes, manifestations, circumstances, results and global consequences of US-China trade war in 2018–2021. Based on the analysis of management decisions, expert assessments, statistics and opinion polls, the author makes judgments and assumptions about the continuity of US policy, provoking and aggravating conflict relations between the two countries, as well as contributing to their penetration into all spheres of politics, economy, culture and even sports. At the same time, consistent and adequate measures on the part of the People’s Republic of China, which have a predominantly defensive orientation, are taken into account. At the same time, the anti-Chinese trade, investment, and technology policy, which was already carried out under Donald Trump in the name of ensuring the national security of the United States, and under Joe Biden actually turned into a hybrid cold war, is interpreted in the context of causal relationships characterizing the crisis of the neoliberal model of capitalism and the intentions of the world elite to restart the Bretton Woods system by switching to “green” energy. The most important resource of the transformation that has begun is the ideology of justifying any sanctions and other strong-willed decisions of the “democratic” Western states led by the United States against the “authoritarian” losers of the energy transition. Consequently, the “trade war” of the USA and China, objectively acting as an instrument of disorganization of the global world and a powerful limiter of globalization based on “market fundamentalism”, becomes the demiurge of the new globalization projected on the platform of “ideological fundamentalism”. In the situation of a multipolar world and the intensified rivalry of nuclear powers, restarting the world economy through a global war seems impossible. On the contrary, the mechanism of collecting a “green” contribution in favor of potential beneficiaries of the new globalization has not yet been tested. Within this perspective, the US-China trade war becomes not only an existential concern of the US and its allies, but also a problem of China’s survival. Obviously, this circumstance explains the emerging rapprochement between the PRC and the Russian Federation in the direction of pooling resources and forming a military-political alliance.

Continuation of the article. Devoted to the causes, manifestations, circumstances, results and global consequences of US-China trade war in 2018–2021. Based on the analysis of management decisions, expert assessments, statistics and opinion polls, the author makes judgments and assumptions about the continuity of US policy, provoking and aggravating conflict relations between the two countries, as well as contributing to their penetration into all spheres of politics, economy, culture and even sports. At the same time, consistent and adequate measures on the part of the People’s Republic of China, which have a predominantly defensive orientation, are taken into account. At the same time, the anti-Chinese trade, investment, and technology policy, which was already carried out under Donald Trump in the name of ensuring the national security of the United States, and under Joe Biden actually turned into a hybrid cold war, is interpreted in the context of causal relationships characterizing the crisis of the neoliberal model of capitalism and the intentions of the world elite to restart the Bretton Woods system by switching to “green” energy. The most important resource of the transformation that has begun is the ideology of justifying any sanctions and other strong-willed decisions of the “democratic” Western states led by the United States against the “authoritarian” losers of the energy transition. Consequently, the “trade war” of the USA and China, objectively acting as an instrument of disorganization of the global world and a powerful limiter of globalization based on “market fundamentalism”, becomes the demiurge of the new globalization projected on the platform of “ideological fundamentalism”. In the situation of a multipolar world and the intensified rivalry of nuclear powers, restarting the world economy through a global war seems impossible. On the contrary, the mechanism of collecting a “green” contribution in favor of potential beneficiaries of the new globalization has not yet been tested. Within this perspective, the US-China trade war becomes not only an existential concern of the US and its allies, but also a problem of China’s survival. Obviously, this circumstance explains the emerging rapprochement between the PRC and the Russian Federation in the direction of pooling resources and forming a military-political alliance.

Copyright of Zeszyty Studenckie Wydzialu Ekonomicznego Uniwersytetu Gdanskiego "Nasze Studia" is the property of Fundacja Rozwoju Uniwersytetu Gdanskiego and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this research, the effects of import and export in foreign trade on the economic growth of Afghanistan during the years 2003 to 2021 have been studied. The import and export data were used from official reports of the Ministry of Trade and Industry Afghanistan, and the information related to economic growth was obtained from the World Bank website. The methodology is a multivariate regression model, which is used to estimate the parameters of the model by Ordinary Least Squares methods which were impossible; the problem of their unit root was solved by difference. Results show that there is no significant relationship between Afghanistan's economic growth and foreign trade, and the reason for the lack of correlation between the variables of foreign trade and economic growth may be the low volume of imports and exports of the Afghanistan economy, and on the other hand, economic growth of Afghanistan have the high dependence of foreign aids in the last 18 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between transnational companies and world trade as well as investment, in terms of their advantages and disadvantages. Using the description method, transnational companies and their impact on world trade and investment are described in detail. Indispensable and integral part of world trade are transnational or multinational companies. Many economists have a common view when it comes to equating the terms "transnational" and "multinational." Namely, they equate these two terms and in the literature there is mostly the term "multinational". The influence of transnational companies on world trade continues to expand and does not stop, and is becoming more important. Without world trade, national domestic markets would be limited to domestic products and services. Multinational companies are generators of foreign direct investment and in most cases each foreign direct investment has its advantages and disadvantages, which primarily depends on the conditions in which the recipient country finds itself. When it comes to transnational companies and their impact on world trade and investment, by using the deductive method, it can be seen from the generally accepted facts and attitudes as well as other things, that everyday life is related to transnational companies and that they are deeply incorporated into world trade directly through investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Indonesian Agribusiness / Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia is the property of IPB University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This article presents a study of exports of 131 countries for the years 1928-1936. There are two important results. One, while world exports in current USD began to rebound from the collapse of trade during the Great Depression in 1933, world exports in constant US gold dollars decreased annually from 1930 through 1934, and only began to increase in 1935. Two, the study shows that for different time periods within the Great Depression some countries or areas had an increase in exports even when the value of exports was measured in constant US gold dollars. These increases can be attributed to trade preferences and/or an ability for the country or area to increase output to such an extent that the value of their exports increased in spite of the worldwide deflation, fall in income, and increases in trade costs and trade barriers.

Abstract We use the United Nations COMTRADE database for analysis of the multiproduct world trade network. With this data, considered for years 2012–2018, we determined the world trade impact of the Kernel of EU 9 countries (KEU9), being Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, considered as one united country. We apply the advanced Google matrix analysis for investigation of the influence of KEU9 and show that KEU9 takes the top trade network rank positions thus becoming the main player of the world trade being ahead of USA and China. Our network analysis provides additional mathematical grounds in favor of the recent proposal (Saint-Etienne in: Osons l’Europe des Nations. Editions de l’Observatoire/Humensis, Paris, 2018) of KEU9 super-union which is based only on historical, political and economy basis.

This article presents a study of exports of 131 countries for the years 1928-1936. There are two important results. One, while world exports in current USD began to rebound from the collapse of trade during the Great Depression in 1933, world exports in constant US gold dollars decreased annually from 1930 through 1934, and only began to increase in 1935. Two, the study shows that for different time periods within the Great Depression some countries or areas had an increase in exports even when the value of exports was measured in constant US gold dollars. These increases can be attributed to trade preferences and/or an ability for the country or area to increase output to such an extent that the value of their exports increased in spite of the worldwide deflation, fall in income, and increases in trade costs and trade barriers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Kafkas University, Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences Faculty / Kafkas Üniversitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi is the property of University of Kafkas, Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Abstract We present a model of worldwide crisis contagion based on the Google matrix analysis of the world trade network obtained from the UN Comtrade database. The fraction of bankrupted countries exhibits an on-off phase transition governed by a bankruptcy threshold κ related to the trade balance of the countries. For κ>κ c , the contagion is circumscribed to less than 10% of the countries, whereas, for κ

The People’s Republic of China is, without doubt, the country with the most interesting evolution in the history of mankind. Its rise and expansion, on all levels, worldwide, no longer surprises anyone. China, with a large continental and oceanic territory (third after Russia and Canada), with significant natural resources and a population exceeding 1.4 billion (almost 19% of the Earth’s population), through its economic development, ending up owning 16.5% of the world economy1 has become the second economic power of the world and the third military power of nowadays, which allows it to defend its interests in its area of influence. Moreover, if it continues at the current pace, the sustained economic development of the People’s Republic of China will make it reach the first place in the world economy in the medium term.

The rapid growth of trade between Asia and Europe facilitated the revival of the Great Silk Road that used to be one of the main trade routes. The new Silk Road can pass through the territory of several states, contributing to their economic growth. The exact route of the new Silk Road is yet to be defined, as there are several alternative options. We developed a mathematical model based on the thermal conductivity equation, which is widely used in physics. Our model assesses how Trans-Eurasian transport flows will change in case of implementing a particular route variant of the Chinese project “One belt, One road” (taking into account the modernisation of the Russian railway network). Based on the spatial distribution of the goods’ supply and demand, this spatial model simulates and predicts the flow of goods in a particular geographical area. The model uses correlations linking the characteristics of commodity flows and the spatial distribution of prices in the considered territory. We have presented results of calculations for several scenarios of modernisation, including the inertial scenario, which maintains the current scheme of transportation of goods. Moreover, we have examined a scenario, involving the construction of the high- speed Northern corridor of the Trans-Asian railway, including the high-speed line Moscow-Kazan-Ekaterinburg-Kazakhstan-Urumqi, as well as a scenario in which the Silk Road passes through Kazakhstan. The simulations have shown that creation of a high-speed highway from Vladivostok to the Russian Western border is the most favourable scenario for implementing Russia’s transit opportunities and accelerating its economic growth. The simulations’ results can be used for assessing the effectiveness of infrastructure projects aimed at modernisation of the Russian transport network.

Introduction. Development of countries, regions and individual ecosystems occurs in the paradigm of innovative and technological change, the crucial element being the production knowledge and competencies. Their ranging in terms of transforming the complexity of the products that the country exports has been embodied and developed in the approach of economic complexity. However, insufficient attention is paid to the study of economic complexity in the context of transboundary processes that impact the development of territories. The objective of this study is to measure the impact of the intensity of transboundary relations on the change in economic complexity through the case study of European countries using the indicators of transboundary specialization of foreign trade turnover. Materials and Methods. The study employed the methods of econometric analysis. Information from the UN Comtrade database, as well as from the special resources for analyzing the economic complexity of countries, the Atlas of Economic Complexity and the Observatory of Economic Complexity, was used as the source data for calculations and measurements. Results. European countries have been classified into 3 subpanels based on Gaussian mixture distributions. The intensity of the impact of the transboundary activities on the complexity of the economy has been identified employing the panel cointegration method based on the constructed models (the combined model and models with fixed and random effects), which were supplemented by data analysis using the fully modified least squares method and the dynamic least squares method. Long-term interdependence between economic complexity and the intensity of transboundary activities has been identified. Discussion and Conclusion. It has been established that the influence of the transboundary interaction factor weakens as the economic complexity increases and under certain conditions it has a negative impact. The revealed dependence is due to the increasing role of global processes rather than the transboundary ones as the economy becomes more complex and more oriented towards the global market. The research findings contribute to further development of the Theory of Economic Complexity; they significantly expand the practical scope of its application, play an important role in understanding and further research on the opportunities and limitations for the development of territories differing in the transboundary cooperation intensity.

This article studies the causes and effects of the decision taken by the European Commission and Ministry of Finance of Russia to prepare measures for promoting the use of ruble and euro as international settlement and payment currencies between commercial entities – residents of Russia and the EU. This decision is caused by the possibility of US’s further expansion of anti-Russia sanctions by blocking settlements between Russian and European companies which can impede the sale of Russian energy resources in Europe. The US dollar position in global monetary turnover is analyzed confirming its role of the main international currency, means of settlements and key component of international monetary reserves. The author displays the advantages the US gain from dollar’s domination in the world economy: internal consumption, exceeding internal production; privileged status of American banking system on the global banking market; wide range of possibilities to influence global economic and political life to their own benefit. Along with that, the author dwells on the apparent trend of weakening of US dollar’s domination in recent years. Wider use of euro and ruble in settlements between Russia and the EU may promote this trend further. The author gives his forecast on the possible reaction of the US government to such a development.

Copyright of Economy & Forecasting / Ekonomìka ì Prognozuvannâ is the property of Ukrainian National Academy of Sciences, Institute for Economic Forecasting and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Global trends and prospects of economic development have been studied on the grounds of an analysis of statistical data of Georgia, developed and developing countries against the background of a crisis caused by COVID-19 pandemic. It is an analysis of perturbations caused by COVID-19, along with their impact on the economic growth, foreign trade, balance of payments, public debt, current account deficit, parameters of the State Budget, inflation, employment, performance of the financial sector, sustainability, etc. Article also presents a discussion on wide-scale fiscal and monetary anti-crisis measures implemented in various countries, along with a possible outcome of such measures in a short- to medium-term horizon, their impact on macroeconomic and monetary stability of individual countries, regions and world, economic growth and welfare of people. Article presents a comparative analysis of the economic impact caused by the pandemic based on the rich statistical data of a great number of countries and Georgia. Also, it highlights the significance of anti-pandemic measures and role of the effective public administration in managing the financial-economic challenges and in resolving problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper employs a multimethod approach to investigate shifts from globalization to deglobalization, presenting a novel economic theory grounded in recent data. It identifies two mechanisms driving structural deglobalization: escalating costs and diminishing benefits at the national level, hindering redistribution efforts and the challenge to sustain global public goods due to waning economic hegemony. The analysis integrates perspectives from international economics, history, hegemonic stability theory and world system theory through narrative review, descriptive statistics and econometric analyses. The multimethod examination emphasizes the complexities of deglobalization, involving international relations, history and economics. Democracy and trade composition emerge as significant factors influencing deglobalization, with varying impacts across historical contexts. Despite this, the resilience of world trade to deglobalization appears to have increased over time. The study underscores the necessity of blending methodologies from different disciplines for a comprehensive understanding of deglobalization and proposes avenues for further research in this complex, multidimensional phenomenon. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article aims at evaluating the One Belt One Road project implemented by China that will define long-term trajectories of the world trade and finance development as well as prospects of Russia’s participation in this project. It seems that the project under consideration is not a full alternative to the existing nowadays world system of railroad and sea shipping both from the viewpoint of the shipping cost and the scope of investment required. A possibility of full-scale refocusing of Russia’s transport systems (the Trans-Siberian Railway, the Northern Sea Route) on the One Belt One Road project is not currently obvious, thus, one cannot state with certainty Russia’s role in this project. Besides, implementing this project results in building in Eurasia a China-centric economy system that does not coincide with the structures built by Russia, i.e. the Eurasian Economic Union, the Customs Union and other ones. At the same time, the One Belt One Road project seems to have no alternatives. None of the other countries has proposed a project that can be compared with the One Belt One Road one in terms of being large-scale, having a global impact as well as long-term effects. It is believed, that after the implementation of the project is complete, the technological and social differences between Europe’s and China’s potentials, which were the reason for shipping goods from Southeast Asia to Europe over the past centuries, will be reduced to a significant extent. In terms of this the China-centric world will have to provide different noneconomic reasons for its existence, i.e. provide the world with new values and meanings of the postindustrial world. In this context Russia’s participating in the One Belt One Road project may appear to be necessary: Russia can act as a project’s security operator, a mediator between China and the countries who are participants of the Silk Road Economic Belt in cases where their interests collide. Russia can also generate values and meanings of economic processes. The safe transportation routes Russia has, i.e. the Trans-Siberian Railway, the Northern Sea Route as well as long-term friendly relations with the countries-participants of the Silk Road Economic Belt and Russia’s being experienced in harmonizing different interests can become the key aspects contributing to success of this project.

The main advantage of Russia is its huge territory, and as a сonsequence its transit potential. All the shortest trade routes, connecting Asia and Europe, pass through the Russian territory. For sustainable economic development and strengthening of Russia’s influence, it is important to realize the transport potential of the region, in which Russia will occupy a key place as a transit country. To be a full-fledged participant in world trade, Russia needs a modern transport system. The problems of the current state of the transport system of Eurasia have been considered in the article, the ways to increase the quality and competitiveness of Russian transport have been adduced.

This article sets out to illustrate the configuration of the global export network; that is, countries' respective importance in the trade network of export production. This network has become denser due to the international fragmentation of production. This article illustrates the configuration of total and manufacturing exports, according to their technological level and those that process natural resources. The most notable changes in the composition of the core network during the study period are the rise of China to a position of prominence; the growing importance of Korea; and the loss of importance of Japan, France, Great Britain, and Italy. On the other hand, the United States and Germany continue to maintain their presence as central players. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the evolution of GDP across 17 advanced economies and 15 developing countries during the Great Depression and the 2008 crisis. The 2008 crisis provoked less severe consequences for the real economy and highlighted an unprecedented resilience in developing and emerging economies. Two explanations are proposed. First, a massive increase of manufacturers' exports from China and other Asian countries radically changed their disadvantaged role in world trade as suppliers of raw materials. Second, the 1997 East Asian crisis pushed many emerging economies to raise their foreign exchange reserves. From passive recipients of capital inflows, developing economies became active participants in global capital markets. The Age of Credit replaced the Age of Money, favouring the "excess elasticity" of a global financial system which can generate and spread the means of finance means worldwide, regardless of the real underlying resources backing them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]