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This study discovers that the interannual synchronization of winter temperature anomalies between northern Eurasia and North America is closely related to variation in the second leading mode of the 300 hPa meridional wind anomalies (i.e., V300‐EOF2) over the North Atlantic‐Arctic Ocean. The V300‐EOF2 mode modulates the large‐scale Rossby wave propagating across the mid‐high latitudes of the Eurasian and North American continents at the mid‐high level of troposphere, and it also interferes with the climatological quasi‐stationary wavenumber‐2 to affect the stratosphere circulation, which facilitates the southward intrusion of cold air into Eurasia and North America simultaneously. This study also evaluated whether the CMIP6 high‐top (HT) models could more accurately represent the V300‐EOF2 mode and the associated modulation mechanism on synchronized temperature variation between Eurasia and North America than the low‐top (LT) models. The results demonstrate that although the multi‐model ensemble means (MME) of both the HT and LT models can reproduce the V300‐EOF mode, they all underestimate its modulation mechanism on atmospheric circulation and coherent temperature changes over mid‐latitude Eurasia and North America, with minor differences in simulation skill capability. Most importantly, although containing a full stratosphere, the HT models do not significantly improve their simulation ability to depict the observed linear interference between the anomalous wave‐2 and the climatological stationary wave‐2 compared to the LT models. Therefore, comparing to the LT models, the CMIP6 HT models present no clear advantages in reproducing the V300‐EOF2 mode and its associated low‐frequency climate anomalies. These results also have implications for the evaluation of the predictability of concomitant Eurasian‐North American cooling in the Subseasonal‐to‐Seasonal Prediction Project. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the ERA5 reanalysis since the 1950s, this study investigates the coherent inter‐decadal variations of the winter continental surface air temperature (SAT) between the Eurasian (EUA) and the North American continents in the past 70 years. The SAT variation over the two continents can be characterized with five typical periods successively from a 'both‐warmer' (1950s–1960s), to a 'both‐colder' (1960s–1980s), and then a 'EUA‐warmer' (1980s–1990s) followed by another 'both‐warmer' (1990s–2000s) and a 'EUA‐colder' (2000s–2010s) period. Such periodic variation of the SAT is closely coupled with changes of the low isentropic‐level meridional mass transport (IMMT), as manifested by the coupling relationship between the midlatitude SAT and the net IMMT out of the polar circle, in terms of their zonal patterns and geographical patterns. The SAT variation can be well reconstructed with the first two leading maximum covariance analysis (MCA) modes between the SAT and IMMT. The first leading MCA mode (MCA1) mainly dominates a 'EUA‐warmer/colder' pattern, while the second (MCA2) dominates the 'both‐warmer/colder' pattern. There exists a significant lead–lag correlation between the MCA1 and MCA2, which determines the changing SAT pattern in the five successive periods. Furthermore, the MCA1 and MCA2, especially their lead–lag coupling after the 1975 is significantly associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) which dominates the much‐intensified MCA1 and the related 'EUA‐warmer/colder' SAT pattern since then. The Atlantic multi‐decadal oscillation mainly dominates the third leading MCA mode with it's effects on the SAT over Europe coincidently to amplify the PDO‐related SAT changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study reveals a marked enhancement in the relationship between the variations in location of the winter East Asian Polar Front Jet (EAPJ) and the surface air temperature (SAT) in Eurasia since the mid-1990s. Before the mid-1990s, an evident wave train related to the meridional location of the EAPJ exhibited an anticyclonic anomaly over northern Europe and a cyclonic anomaly in northwestern Asia. With an equatorward shift of the EAPJ after the mid-1990s, the wave train experiences a notable adjustment that is conducive to East Asian cooling, displaying an anticyclonic anomaly around the Kara-Laptev Seas and a cyclonic anomaly near northeastern Asia. Arctic warming anomalies and sea ice loss contributed significantly to these decadal changes. Simulation experiments forced by observed Arctic sea-ice variability further confirm this result. Since the mid-1990s, Arctic sea ice loss (or Arctic warming anomaly) has contributed to a reduction in westerly winds in high latitudes by modulating the meridional temperature gradient. The deaccelerated winds intensify the Arctic cold air propagating to the south, enhancing the atmospheric baroclinicity and the westerly flow in the upper level at the south side of the EAPJ, favoring the southward shift of the EAPJ. With the equatorward shift of the EAPJ, the corresponding SAT anomalies in East Asia are more salient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In East Asia, the climate variability in boreal winter is dominated by the East Asian winter monsoon, one of the most energetic monsoon systems that can lead to disasters. The key variable, the East Asian winter surface air temperature (SAT), has significantly changed over the past century and has substantially impacted agriculture, ecosystems, economics, and public health. However, its projections are limited by considerable uncertainties. Here, we identify the first leading mode that explains almost 29.6% of the inter-model spread in future SAT change. Our research delves into the evolution of present-day biases under future scenarios and their consequential impact on the SAT. Models with stronger western currents’ heat transport in the North Pacific exhibit a warmer North Pacific at mid-latitudes during historical periods. Additionally, these models consistently demonstrate stronger western currents in the future, contributing to the amplified warming of the western North Pacific, thereby warming Eurasia via the weakened trough and subtropical jet through barotropic responses to the warm North Pacific. Incorporating observational sea surface temperature constraints reduces uncertainties by 9.40%, revealing a more reliable SAT change pattern by the end of the 21st century.

The intraseasonal reversal of wintertime surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies over East Asia (15°-55°N, 80°-130°E) is becoming a matter of concern. Thus, the predominant features of the reversal mode of SAT anomalies and its relevant dynamical mechanism associated with transient eddies (TEs) are studied by using the Multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (MV-EOF) analysis method and the geopotential tendency equation. Results show that the third MV-EOF mode well depicts a colder (warmer) DJ with a warmer (colder) February and is closely linked to an out-of-phase variation in both East Asian Polar Front Jet (EAPJ) and East Asian Subtropical Jet (EASJ). It is found that synoptic-scale (2.5-8d) and low-frequency (10-90d) TE activities over Eurasia play important roles in the intraseasonal reversal in SAT anomalies by adjusting time-mean flows. A cold DJ in East Asia dynamically corresponds to a strengthened EASJ and weakened EAPJ, while the TE forcing dominated by low-frequency TE vorticity forcing and synoptic-scale TE heating forcing tends to weaken the EASJ and reinforce the EAPJ, unfavorable to the maintenance of cold anomalies over East Asia. However, the characteristics of both synoptic-scale and low-frequency TE activities in February are significantly different from that in DJ. By comparison, the TE forcing is dominated by synoptic-scale TE vorticity forcing and low-frequency TE heating forcing, which makes great contribution to the weakening of EASJ and the enhancement and maintenance of EAPJ, conducive to a weaker East Asian winter monsoon and eventually to a warmer East Asia. • An intraseasonal reversal of winter air temperature anomalies occasionally occurs in December–January and February. • The reversal mode is linked to an out-of-phase variation in East Asian Polar Front Jet and East Asian Subtropical Jet. • Transient eddy activities contribute to the intraseasonal reversal by adjusting the time-mean flow (e.g. zonal wind). • Synoptic-scale and low-frequency transient eddy activities play different roles in DJ and February. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past Results indicate that there is a significant negative correlation between the Siberian High (SH) and winter surface air temperature (SAT) over Eurasian continent and East Asia. However, correlation does not mean causation, especially in nonlinear dynamic systems. Here, we apply a recently developed method, Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM), to detect the causal connection between SH and winter SAT over Northeast Asia. It suggests the winter SAT variability in Northeast Asia and SH shows two-way causation, SH ↔ winter SAT. Meanwhile, the influence of SH characteristic variables on wintertime SAT is in order of area, longitude of east edge, intensity and latitude of south edge of SH, respectively. What's more, the impact of wintertime SAT on SH characteristic variables is in order of area, intensity, longitude of east edge, and latitude of south edge of SH. Besides, we apply the CCM to analyze the causality between the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM) and the intensity of SH. It indicates that the NAM forces the intensity of SH, but not vise versa. Hence, we suggest that the NAM can influence winter SAT through the SH. The mechanism of the causality is presented preliminarily. These causal relationships and feedback effects in dynamic systems have opened up the possibility to improve the seasonal prediction of winter SAT over Northeast Asia by using the external factors of the SH. • The Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) has been applied to the causal influence; • Bidirectional causality exists between SH and SAT over Northeast Asia; • Causal between NAM, SH and SAT can deepen the understanding of the atmospheric circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]