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As a country with abundant natural resources in the form of mineral and non-mineral products, Indonesia is characterized by its ability to fulfill domestic and foreign needs through export activities categorized into two commodities: oil and gas and non-oil and gas. Export activities are an indicator of the country's economic growth that often fluctuates in value, and these conditions are fundamentally caused by a decrease in production quantity and the instability of the global economic climate. The strategy to overcome these problems is to create a forecasting model. This research aims to develop a forecasting model using time series analysis methods, including vector autoregressive (VAR) and long short-term memory (LSTM) methods based on oil and non-oil and gas value parameters. The results of the Granger causality test stated that the values of oil and gas and non-oil and gas affect each other. The VAR model with the optimum lag produced by the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) test obtained an accuracy value of MAPE oil gas and non-oil and gas of 18.4% and 32.1%, respectively. LSTM generates the best model with a MAPE value of 6,23% for oil gas and 8,18% for non-oil and gas.

Exchange rate fluctuations have far-reaching consequences for national economies, companies and, above all, consumers. It is therefore important to understand the mechanisms by which these fluctuations affect food prices in domestic markets. In this context, we examine the complex relationship between exchange rates and domestic food prices and attempt to calculate the pass-through effect of the exchange rate on domestic prices. To examine the pass-through effect of the exchange rate on food prices, we use monthly USD/TRY exchange rate data from January 2003 to July 2023 as well as the global food price index, the export-import rate for food and the producer price index for food in Türkiye. We employ the vector autoregression (VAR) method to determine the optimal lags of the variables included in the analysis and the artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm to calculate the overall pass-through effect of the USD/TRY exchange rate on domestic food prices. The results show that the pass-through effect of the variable on food prices persists for three months: the current month, the previous month and the two previous months. The total pass-through effect of the exchange rate on food prices reaches up to 27%. Half of this impact comes from the previous month's food prices. In addition, the ratio of food exports to imports accounts for about 12% of the increase in domestic food prices. The results also show that the variable with the highest pass-through effect is the producer price index and that 90% of the increase in food prices is due to domestic dynamics, while the effect of price increases in foreign markets is only about 10%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tax system serves as a crucial tool for achieving fiscal policy objectives efficiently, with minimal impact on the economy's functioning. Its primary role extends beyond merely funding government expenditures to include income redistribution and economic stabilization, fostering an environment conducive to sustained economic growth. The progress of nations on economic, social, political, and cultural fronts hinges significantly on governments' adeptness in revenue collection and maintaining fiscal system stability. This research delves into the intricate interplay between fiscal and social policies and their influence on the economies of emerging and developed nations within the Central and Eastern European Union member states during the period 2005-2020. Employing the autoregressive regression model (VAR), the study aims to unearth the impulse-response functions triggered by fiscal variables on the gross domestic product (GDP). By scrutinizing historical data, the research endeavors to offer forecasts concerning the economy's responses to shocks induced by both direct and indirect taxes, as well as social security contributions. The findings reveal nuanced insights. Indirect taxes exhibit minimal and statistically insignificant impact on the GDP. Conversely, direct taxes and mandatory social contributions demonstrate a substantial and adverse effect on the gross domestic product, signaling a noteworthy impact on the overall economy. This research contributes valuable perspectives on the intricate dynamics between fiscal policies and economic outcomes, shedding light on the need for strategic and calibrated approaches to taxation for sustained economic development and social welfare in the Central and Eastern European Union member states.

The tax system serves as a crucial tool for achieving fiscal policy objectives efficiently, with minimal impact on the economy's functioning. Its primary role extends beyond merely funding government expenditures to include income redistribution and economic stabilization, fostering an environment conducive to sustained economic growth. The progress of nations on economic, social, political, and cultural fronts hinges significantly on governments' adeptness in revenue collection and maintaining fiscal system stability. This research delves into the intricate interplay between fiscal and social policies and their influence on the economies of emerging and developed nations within the Central and Eastern European Union member states during the period 2005-2020. Employing the autoregressive regression model (VAR), the study aims to unearth the impulse-response functions triggered by fiscal variables on the gross domestic product (GDP). By scrutinizing historical data, the research endeavors to offer forecasts concerning the economy's responses to shocks induced by both direct and indirect taxes, as well as social security contributions. The findings reveal nuanced insights. Indirect taxes exhibit minimal and statistically insignificant impact on the GDP. Conversely, direct taxes and mandatory social contributions demonstrate a substantial and adverse effect on the gross domestic product, signaling a noteworthy impact on the overall economy. This research contributes valuable perspectives on the intricate dynamics between fiscal policies and economic outcomes, shedding light on the need for strategic and calibrated approaches to taxation for sustained economic development and social welfare in the Central and Eastern European Union member states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of International Journal of Economic & Social Research is the property of Abant Izzet Baysal University, Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Background: The day-ahead power market is an important part of the spot market. In the day-ahead market, participants make short-term forecasts of the load and output to propose the bidding curve more precisely. As energy aggregators that have regulatory resources, virtual power plants (VPPs) need to consider the uncertainty of distributed renewable energy output when participating in power market transactions.Methods: This paper analyzes the uncertainty and built an optimization model for VPP in day-ahead power market considering the uncertainty from both inner parts and the market environment. To verify the model, a simulation study is ran.Results: And the study results show the following: 1) the forecasting model is more efficient than the traditional algorithm in terms of accuracy, and 2) the confidence levels are not fully positive with the benefit of VPPs.Discussion: Improving the confidence level could reduce the uncertainty brought by renewable energy, but could also cause conservative trading behavior and affect the consumption of renewable energy.

Bu çalışmanın amacı seçili gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde emtia piyasasında bir yatırım aracı olarak işlem gören petrol fiyatlarının borsa endeksleri ile ilişkisini ve etkileşimini ortaya çıkarmaktır. Çalışmada 01/2008-06/2020 yılları arasında aylık veriler kullanılarak petrol fiyatları ile hisse senedi piyasaları arasındaki karşılıklı ilişki zaman serisi yöntemlerinden VAR yöntemi kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmada analize dahil edilen her bir ülkenin öncelikle aynı seviyede durağanlığı sağlanan değişkenleri VAR modeline dayalı Granger nedensellik testi kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Etki-tepki fonksiyonu ile ham petrol fiyatlarında meydana gelecek bir birimlik şok karşısında değişkenlerin 10 dönem boyunca verdikleri tepkiler incelenmiştir. Ayrıca değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiler varyans ayrıştırma fonksiyonu ile değerlendirilmiştir. Çalışmadan elde edilen nedensellik analizi sonuçlarına göre DAXSanayi, BEL20, CAC Sanayi, BIST100, Bovespa, Hindistan Petrol Gaz, FTSE Endonezya ve sanayi endekslerinden petrol değişkenine doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi saptanmıştır. BSE Sensex 30 endeksi ile ham petrol değişkeni arasında ise çift yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Etki-tepki analizi sonuçlarına göre petrol fiyatlarında meydana gelebilecek bir şok karşısında endekslerin tepkisinin zayıf formda pozitif ve/veya negatif olduğu saptanmıştır. Ancak endekslerden birinde meydana gelebilecek bir şok karşısında petrol değişkenin anlamlı tepkiler verdiği tespit edilmiştir.

Çalışmanın amacı Türkiye için enflasyonun 2008 sonrası belirleyicilerini araştırmaktır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkiyi saptamak için 2008:1-2019:12 dönemini kapsayan aylık veriler zaman serisi analizi ile test edilmektedir. Johansen eşbütünleşme analizine göre, serilerin uzun dönemde eşbütünleşik olduğu görülmektedir. Granger nedensellik test sonuçları incelendiğine, TÜFE ile hampetrol ve doğalgaz fiyatları, reel efektif döviz kuru ve yurtiçi kredi hacmi arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmektedir. Bununla birlikte, TÜFE’den para arzı ve politika faiz oranına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisi mevcutken, ÜFE ile bankalarca mevduatlara verilen faiz oranından TÜFE’ye doğru tek yönlü nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı ortaya çıkmaktadır. Ayrıca VAR analizi temelinde gerçekleştirilen etki-tepki fonksiyonları ve varyans ayrıştırması sonuçları değerlendirilmektedir.

Copyright of Kırıkkale University Journal of Social Sciences is the property of Kirikkale University Journal of Social Science (KUJSS) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In this study, the impacts of Bitcoin on Japan, China, Turkey and USA stock indexes were investigated. Nikkei225, SSE380, BIST100 and S&P500 were selected as the stock market indexes. The weekly data including dates between January 03, 2016 and December 16, 2018 were analyzed using EViews program and firstly the time-dependent, non-stationary data set was stabilized. Then, the stabilized data was analyzed with VAR(3) model according to Akaike information criteria. According to the Johansen cointegration test, 2nd model was selected as the most appropriate model for the study. The variables were rearranged with error correction model and then Granger causality analysis was performed. As a result of these analysis, it was determined that Bitcoin only affected BIST100 and that there were two-way causality relation between them. In addition, a one-way causality from Nikkei225 to SSE380, from SSE380 to Bitcoin, from S&P500 to Nikkei225 and from Nikkei225 to Bitcoin were observed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose. The development of agriculture and the security of food supply primarily on the domestic market represent the base of the economic development, and of economic and social stability of a country. Methodology. By using the VaR method, which is the best available risk-measuring technique, the crude oil price fluctuations will be followed in a designated period, in order to understand its influence on the creation of the business policy of agricultural producers. Results. A significant support for the development of agriculture is provided by the leading companies in the crude oil and oil derivatives industry. Conclusions. The aim of the current study is to comprehend the level of influence of crude oil prices as a global economic factor on the behavior of agricultural producers.

Purpose. The development of agriculture and the security of food supply primarily on the domestic market represent the base of the economic development, and of economic and social stability of a country. Methodology. By using the VaR method, which is the best available risk-measuring technique, the crude oil price fluctuations will be followed in a designated period, in order to understand its influence on the creation of the business policy of agricultural producers. Results. A significant support for the development of agriculture is provided by the leading companies in the crude oil and oil derivatives industry. Conclusions. The aim of the current study is to comprehend the level of influence of crude oil prices as a global economic factor on the behavior of agricultural producers.

Copyright of Transformations in Business & Economics is the property of Vilnius University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Abstract: This paper, based on GARCH model, investigates the impact towards foreign exchange market of 13 kinds of macroeconomic information, and finds the released information of Sino-American monetary and retail trade has the biggest influence on foreign exchange market. As Chinese monetary policy, investment and consumer information, as well as American monetary policy and real estate information have been released, the market appears abnormal return rate; after Chinese currency and consumer information as well as American trade and consumer information have been released, the foreign exchange market volatility aggravates and continues. This paper attempts to use the GARCH model with macro information based on the VaR method to measure foreign exchange risk renewedly. Finally we find adding macro information into the model could increase the information of estimation which would improve the VaR measurement results. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Copyright of Gazi University Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences is the property of Gazi University Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)