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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Understanding predictors of changes in employment status among people living with multiple sclerosis (MS) can assist health care providers to develop appropriate work retention/rehabilitation programs. We aimed to model longitudinal transitions of employment status in MS and estimate the probabilities of retaining employment status or losing or gaining employment over time in individuals with a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system demyelination (FCD). METHODS: This prospective cohort study comprised adults (aged 18-59 years) diagnosed with FCD (n = 237) who were followed for more than 11 years. At each review, participants were assigned to one of three states: unemployed, part-time, or full-time employed. A Markov multistate model was used to examine the rate of state-to-state transitions. RESULTS: At the time of FCD, participants with full-time employment had an 89% chance of being in the same state over a 1-year period, but this decreased to 42% over the 10-year follow-up period. For unemployed participants, there was a 92% likelihood of remaining unemployed after 1 year, but this probability decreased to 53% over 10 years. Females, those who progressed to clinically definite MS, those with a higher relapse count, and those with a greater level of disability were at increased risk of transitioning to a deteriorated employment state. In addition, those who experienced clinically significant fatigue over the follow-up period were less likely to gain employment after being unemployed. CONCLUSIONS: In our FCD cohort, we found a considerable rate of employment transition during the early years post-diagnosis. Over more than a decade of follow-up post-FCD, we found that females and individuals with a greater disability and a higher relapse count are at higher risk of losing employment.

BACKGROUND: There are currently no specific biomarkers for multiple sclerosis (MS). Identifying robust biomarkers for MS is crucial to improve disease diagnosis and management. METHODS: This study first used six Mendelian randomisation methods to assess causal relationship of 174 metabolites with MS, incorporating data from European-ancestry metabolomics (n=8569-86 507) and MS (n=14 802 MS cases, 26 703 controls) genomewide association studies. Genetic scores for identified causal metabolite(s) were then computed to predict MS disability progression in an independent longitudinal cohort (AusLong study) of 203 MS cases with up to 15-year follow-up. RESULTS: We found a novel genetic causal effect of serine on MS onset (OR=1.67, 95% CI 1.51 to 1.84, p=1.73×10-20), such that individuals whose serine level is 1 SD above the population mean will have 1.67 times the risk of developing MS. This is robust across all sensitivity methods (OR ranges from 1.49 to 1.67). In an independent longitudinal MS cohort, we then constructed time-dynamic and time-fixed genetic scores based on serine genetic instrument single-nucleotide polymorphisms, where higher scores for raised serum serine level were associated with increased risk of disability worsening, especially in the time-dynamic model (RR=1.25, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.42, p=7.52×10-4). CONCLUSIONS: These findings support investigating serine as an important candidate biomarker for MS onset and disability progression.

BACKGROUND: Health state utilities (HSU) are a health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) input for cost-utility analyses used for resource allocation decisions, including medication reimbursement. New Zealand (NZ) guidelines recommend the EQ-5D instruments; however, the EQ-5D-5L may not sufficiently capture psychosocial health. We evaluated HRQoL among people with multiple sclerosis (MS) in NZ using the EQ-5D-5L and assessed the instrument's discriminatory sensitivity for a NZ MS cohort. METHODS: Participants were recruited from the NZ MS Prevalence Study. Participants self-completed a 45-min online survey that included the EQ-5D-5L/EQ-VAS. Disability severity was classified using the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) to categorise participant disability as mild (EDSS: 0-3.5), moderate (EDSS: 4.0-6.0) and severe (EDSS: 6.5-9.5). Anxiety/depression were also measured using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score (HADS). In the absence of an EQ-5D-5L NZ tariff, HSUs were derived using an Australian tariff. We evaluated associations between HSUs and participant characteristics with linear regression models. RESULTS: 254 participants entered the study. Mean age was 55.2 years, 79.5% were female. Mean (SD) EQ-5D-5L HSU was 0.58 (0.33). Mean (SD) HSUs for disability categories were: mild 0.80 ± 0.17, moderate 0.57 ± 0.21 and severe 0.14 ± 0.32. Twelve percent reported HSU = 1.0 (i.e., no problems in any domain). Participants who had never used a disease-modifying therapy reported a lower mean HSU. Multivariable modelling found that the HADS anxiety score was not associated with EQ-5D-5L. CONCLUSIONS: HRQoL for people with MS in NZ was lower than comparable countries, including Australia. We suggest a comparison with other generic tools that may have improved sensitivity to mental health.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory, neurodegenerative disease of the central nervous system which results in disability over time and reduced quality of life. To increase the sensitivity of the EQ-5D-5L for psychosocial health, four bolt-on items from the AQoL-8D were used to create the nine-item EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial. We aimed to externally validate the EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial in a large cohort of people with MS (pwMS) and explore the discriminatory power of the new instrument with EQ-5D-5L/AQoL-8D. METHODS: A large representative sample from the Australian MS Longitudinal Study completed the AQoL-8D and EQ-5D-5L (including EQ VAS) and both instruments health state utilities (HSUs) were scored using Australian tariffs. Sociodemographic/clinical data were also collected. External validity of EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial scoring algorithm was assessed with mean absolute errors (MAE) and Spearman's correlation coefficient. Discriminatory sensitivity was assessed with an examination of ceiling/floor effects, and disability severity classifications. RESULTS: Among 1683 participants (mean age: 58.6 years; 80% female), over half (55%) had moderate or severe disability. MAE (0.063) and the distribution of the prediction error were similar to the original development study. Mean (± standard deviation) HSUs were EQ-5D-5L: 0.58 ± 0.32, EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial 0.62 ± 0.29, and AQoL-8D: 0.63 ± 0.20. N = 157 (10%) scored perfect health (i.e. HSU = 1.0) on the EQ-5D-5L, but reported a mean HSU of 0.90 on the alternative instruments. The Sleep bolt-on dimension was particularly important for pwMS. CONCLUSIONS: The EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial is more sensitive than the EQ-5D-5L in pwMS whose HSUs approach those reflecting full health. When respondent burden is taken into account, the EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial is preferential to the AQoL-8D. We suggest a larger confirmatory study comparing all prevalent multi-attribute utility instruments for pwMS.

Purpose Physical activity (PA) participation offers many benefits for persons with multiple sclerosis (MS). Persons with MS are significantly less active than the general population; however, there is insufficient evidence regarding the association between geographical remoteness and PA participation in persons with MS. We identify PA levels across levels of rurality in an Australian MS population. Materials and methods The Australian MS Longitudinal Study collects regular survey data from persons with MS in Australia, including demographic, clinical, and health behavioural data. Physical activity engagement was identified with the International Physical Activity Questionnaire-short form and geographical remoteness was identified from participants’ postcode using the Access and Remoteness Index for Australia. Hurdle regression analysis examined the relationship between remoteness and PA participation, and level of PA, after controlling for confounding. Results Data from 1260 respondents showed that 24% of persons with MS did not participate in any PA. Remoteness was not associated with the participation in any PA (OR 1.04; 89% highest density probability interval (HDPI) estimate 0.88, 1.22). Amongst those with any PA (n = 960), those living in more remote areas had, on average, higher levels of PA (RR 1.21; 89% HDPI estimate 1.11, 1.34). Conclusions Physical activity promotion does not need to differ based on geographical location.

INTRODUCTION: Generic multiattribute utility instruments (MAUIs) are efficient tools for determining and enumerating health-related quality of life. MAUIs accomplish this by generating health state utilities (HSUs) via algorithms. Minimal important differences (MIDs) assist with the interpretation of HSUs by estimating minimum changes that are clinically significant. The overall goal of the proposed systematic review and meta-analysis is the development of comprehensive guidelines for MID estimation. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This protocol defines a systematic review and meta-analysis of MIDs for generic MAUIs. The proposed research will involve a comprehensive investigation of 10 databases (EconLit, IDEAs database, INAHTA database, Medline, PsycINFO, Embase, Emcare, JBIEBP and CINAHL) from 1 June 2022 to 7 June 2022, and will be performed and reported in accordance with several validated guidelines, principally the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. The quality of papers, considered for inclusion in the review, will be appraised using the COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments, inter alia.Narrative analysis will involve identifying the characteristics of MIDs including methods of calculation, sources of heterogeneity, and validation. Meta-analysis will also be conducted. The descriptive element of meta-analysis will involve the generation of I2 statistics and Galbraith plots of MID heterogeneity. Together with narrative analysis, this will allow sources of MID heterogeniety to be identified. A multilevel mixed model, estimated via restricted maximum likelihood estimation, will be constructed for the purposes of meta-regression. Meta-regression will attempt to enumerate the effects of sources of heterogeneity on MID estimates. Meta-analysis will be concluded with pooling of MIDs via a linear random-effects model. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval is not required for this review, a

Limited studies have been conducted to identify and validate multiple sclerosis (MS) genetic loci associated with disability progression. We aimed to identify MS genetic loci associated with worsening of disability over time, and to develop and validate ensemble genetic learning model(s) to identify people with MS (PwMS) at risk of future worsening. We examined associations of 208 previously established MS genetic loci with the risk of worsening of disability; we learned ensemble genetic decision rules and validated the predictions in an external dataset. We found 7 genetic loci (rs7731626: HR 0.92, P = 2.4 × 10-5; rs12211604: HR 1.16, P = 3.2 × 10-7; rs55858457: HR 0.93, P = 3.7 × 10-7; rs10271373: HR 0.90, P = 1.1 × 10-7; rs11256593: HR 1.13, P = 5.1 × 10-57; rs12588969: HR = 1.10, P = 2.1 × 10-10; rs1465697: HR 1.09, P = 1.7 × 10-128) associated with risk worsening of disability; most of which were located near or tagged to 13 genomic regions enriched in peptide hormones and steroids biosynthesis pathways by positional and eQTL mapping. The derived ensembles produced a set of genetic decision rules that can be translated to provide additional prognostic values to existing clinical predictions, with the additional benefit of incorporating relevant genetic information into clinical decision making for PwMS. The present study extends our knowledge of MS progression genetics and provides the basis of future studies regarding the functional significance of the identified loci.

Low 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentration is a recognised risk factor for multiple sclerosis (MS). Associations with vitamin D metabolites and vitamin D binding globulin (VDBG) have not been widely studied. We assessed the association between vitamin D metabolites (25(OH)D2, 25(OH)D3, c3-epimer 25(OH)D3, 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 (1,25(OH)2D3), and 24,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 (24,25(OH)2D3)) measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry assays, VDBG measured using a polyclonal immunoassay, and calculated free and bioavailable 25(OH)D, free 1,25(OH)2D3, and the 24,25(OH)2D3: total 25(OH)D and total 1,25(OH)2D: total 25(OH)D ratios with risk of a first clinical diagnosis of CNS demyelination (FCD) in an Australian case-control study (n = 196 cases, n = 241 controls, matched on age, sex and study region). Higher 25(OH)D (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 0.94 (95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.85−1.03) per 10 nmol/L increment) and 24,25(OH)2D3 (AOR = 0.81 (95 %CI 0.65−1.00) per 1 nmol/L increment) concentrations were associated with reduced FCD risk. Our results were compatible with no association for the other vitamin D metabolites, ratios, or VDBG with FCD risk. Thus, using standardised assays, and a comprehensive range of vitamin D metabolites, we confirmed the association of higher 25(OH)D and reduced FCD risk, and describe a similar effect for 24,25(OH)2D3; free or bioavailable 25(OH)D were not associated with FCD risk.

BACKGROUND: One of the major objectives of the Multiple Sclerosis Data Alliance (MSDA) is to enable better discovery of multiple sclerosis (MS) real-world data (RWD). METHODS: We implemented the MSDA Catalogue, which is available worldwide. The current version of the MSDA Catalogue collects descriptive information on governance, purpose, inclusion criteria, procedures for data quality control, and how and which data are collected, including the use of e-health technologies and data on collection of COVID-19 variables. The current cataloguing procedure is performed in several manual steps, securing an effective catalogue. RESULTS: Herein we summarize the status of the MSDA Catalogue as of January 6, 2021. To date, 38 data sources across five continents are included in the MSDA Catalogue. These data sources differ in purpose, maturity, and variables collected, but this landscaping effort shows that there is substantial alignment on some domains. The MSDA Catalogue shows that personal data and basic disease data are the most collected categories of variables, whereas data on fatigue measurements and cognition scales are the least collected in MS registries/cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The Web-based MSDA Catalogue provides strategic overview and allows authorized end users to browse metadata profiles of data cohorts and data sources. There are many existing and arising RWD sources in MS. Detailed cataloguing of MS RWD is a first and useful step toward reducing the time needed to discover MS RWD sets and promoting collaboration.

INTRODUCTION: The prevalence of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) reported in different countries varies significantly and seems to have a latitudinal gradient with the highest prevalence reported in higher latitudes, as has been observed with other autoimmune diseases. This study aimed to determine whether there is a latitudinal gradient of PBC prevalence in Australia using 2 methods of case ascertainment. METHODS: We investigated the latitudinal variation of PBC prevalence across the states and territories of Australia (latitudinal range 18.0°-42.7°S) using pathology-based (private pathology antimitochondrial antibody results and PBC-specific prescription databases (prescriptions for ursodeoxycholic acid, the only publicly subsidized treatment for this disease). RESULTS: PBC prevalence was significantly positively associated with latitude, and the postcodes in the highest quintile of latitude (encompassing the south coastal areas of the Australian mainland and Tasmania; latitude range -37.75° to -42.72°) had a prevalence estimate that was 1.78 times higher using the pathology-based prevalence estimation than those in the lowest quintile (encompassing tropical and southern Queensland; latitude range -18.02° to -27.59°). Comparing prevalence estimates between states/territories, the result was 2.53 and 2.21 times higher in Tasmania compared with Queensland when using the pathology-based and prescription-based methods, respectively. DISCUSSION: Using 2 different case-ascertainment methods, we have demonstrated that prevalence estimates of PBC vary significantly with latitude in Australia. Further studies are needed to determine whether factors such as variations in ultraviolet radiation exposure and/or vitamin D levels are responsible for this observation and to investigate the latitudinal prevalence of PBC in other populations.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study was undertaken to identify clinically meaningful comorbidity patterns and their associations with the demographic/clinical characteristics of people with multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We conducted latent class analysis to identify clinically distinct comorbidity patterns in MS using the 15 most common comorbidities among 1518 Australian Multiple Sclerosis Longitudinal Study participants. The associations between demographic/clinical characteristics and comorbidity patterns were examined using log-binomial and multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: Five distinct comorbidity patterns were identified: "minimally diseased class" (30.8%), consisting of participants with no or one comorbidity; "metabolic class" (22.7%); "mental health-allergy class" (21.7%); "nonmetabolic class" (7.6%); and "severely diseased class" (7.0%), consisting of participants with higher prevalence of these comorbidities. The relative probabilities of being assigned to comorbidity classes compared to the minimally diseased class were significantly increased for participants who were older (metabolic: relative risk ratio [RRR] = 1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.06-1.11; nonmetabolic: RRR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.04-1.11; severely diseased: RRR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.01-1.08), female (nonmetabolic: RRR = 5.35, 95% CI = 1.98-14.42; severely diseased: RRR = 2.21, 95% CI = 1.02-4.77), and obese (metabolic: RRR = 4.06, 95% CI = 2.45-6.72; mental health-allergy: RRR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.00-2.46; severely diseased: RRR = 4.53, 95% CI = 2.21-9.29) and who had moderate disability (mental health-allergy: RRR = 2.32, 95% CI = 1.47-3.64; severely diseased: RRR = 2.65, 95% CI = 1.16-6.04). CONCLUSIONS: Comorbidity patterns exist in MS. Women, people who were older, people who were obese, and people who had higher disability levels were more likely to be in classes with higher levels of comorbidity. These findings may offer opportunities for designing more personalised approac

BACKGROUND: Dietary patterns and their association with subsequent clinical course have not been well studied in early multiple sclerosis (MS). OBJECTIVES: To describe dietary patterns in people in 5 years following first clinical demyelination and assess associations with MS conversion and relapse. METHODS: This study included baseline food frequency questionnaire dietary intake (entry to the Ausimmune Study) and 5-year follow-up; iterated principal factor analysis was applied. MS conversion and relapse risks were assessed by Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, sex, study site, education, body mass index (BMI), smoking and omega-3 supplement use. RESULTS: In cases with a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system (CNS) demyelination, we identified three major dietary patterns, 'Prudent', 'High-Vegetable' and 'Mixed', explaining 43%, 37% and 24% of diet variance in dietary intake, respectively. Fruits, vegetables, fish, wholegrains and nuts loaded highly on the Prudent pattern, starchy vegetables and legumes on the High-Vegetable pattern, and meats and alcohol on the Mixed pattern. Diet factor scores were not associated with MS conversion risk. Those with baseline Prudent scores above the median had significantly lower relapse risk (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.37, 0.81) with some evidence of a plateau effect. CONCLUSION: Prudent diet factor score above the median was prospectively associated with lower relapse risk in the 5 years following the first clinical demyelinating event.

Background People with multiple sclerosis (MS) are a vulnerable group for severe COVID-19, particularly those taking immunosuppressive disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). We examined the characteristics of COVID-19 severity in an international sample of people with MS. Methods Data from 12 data-sources in 28 countries were aggregated (sources could include patients from 1-12 countries). Demographic (age, sex), clinical (MS phenotype, disability), and DMT (untreated, alemtuzumab, cladribine, dimethyl-fumarate, glatiramer-acetate, interferon, natalizumab, ocrelizumab, rituximab, siponimod, other) covariates were queried, alongside COVID-19 hospitalisation, admission to ICU, requiring artificial ventilation, and death. Characteristics of outcomes were assessed in patients with suspected/confirmed COVID-19 using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression, adjusted for age, sex, MS phenotype, and EDSS. Results 657 (28.1%) with suspected and 1,683 (61.9%) with confirmed COVID-19 were analysed. Among suspected+confirmed/confirmed-only COVID-19, 20.9%/26.9% were hospitalised, 5.4%/7.2% were admitted to ICU, 4.1%/5.4% required artificial ventilation, and 3.2%/3.9% died. Older age, progressive MS-phenotype, and higher disability were associated with worse COVID-19 outcomes. Compared to dimethyl-fumarate, ocrelizumab and rituximab were associated with hospitalisation (aOR=1.56,95%CI=1.01-2.41; aOR=2.43,95%CI=1.48-4.02) and ICU admission (aOR=2.30,95%CI=0.98-5.39; aOR=3.93,95%CI=1.56-9.89), though only rituximab was associated with higher risk of artificial ventilation (aOR=4.00,95%CI=1.54-10.39). Importantly, associations persisted on restriction to confirmed COVID-19 cases. No associations were observed between DMTs and death. Conclusions Despite the cross-sectional design of this study, the internal and external consistency of these results with prior studies suggests their use may be a risk factor for more severe COVID-19. Key messages Anti-CD20 DMTs may be assoc

BACKGROUND: No studies have assessed changes in employment survival in multiple sclerosis (MS) populations over recent decades, including the introduction of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). OBJECTIVES: To evaluate factors associated with leaving employment due to MS; to assess whether the risk of leaving employment has changed over recent decades in Australia, stratified by MS phenotype. METHODS: We included 1240 participants who were working before MS diagnosis. Information on employment status, reasons for leaving employment and year of leaving were collected. Data were analysed using competing risk survival analysis. RESULTS: Males, progressive MS, lower education level and older age at diagnosis were associated with a higher sub-distribution hazard of leaving employment. Compared to the period before 2010, the sub-distribution hazard during 2010-2016 for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) was reduced by 43% (sub-distribution hazard ratio (sHR) 0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.50 to 0.90), while no significant reduction was seen for primary-progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) (sHR 1.25, 95% CI: 0.72 to 2.16) or secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) (sHR 1.37, 95% CI: 0.84 to 2.25). CONCLUSION: Males, people with progressive MS and those of lower education level were at higher risk of leaving employment. The differential changed risk of leaving employment between people with different MS phenotype after 2010 coincides with the increased usage of high-efficacy DMTs for RRMS.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: People with multiple sclerosis (MS) are a vulnerable group for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), particularly those taking immunosuppressive disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). We examined the characteristics of COVID-19 severity in an international sample of people with MS. METHODS: Data from 12 data sources in 28 countries were aggregated (sources could include patients from 1-12 countries). Demographic (age, sex), clinical (MS phenotype, disability), and DMT (untreated, alemtuzumab, cladribine, dimethyl fumarate, glatiramer acetate, interferon, natalizumab, ocrelizumab, rituximab, siponimod, other DMTs) covariates were queried, along with COVID-19 severity outcomes, hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, need for artificial ventilation, and death. Characteristics of outcomes were assessed in patients with suspected/confirmed COVID-19 using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression adjusted for age, sex, MS phenotype, and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score. RESULTS: Six hundred fifty-seven (28.1%) with suspected and 1,683 (61.9%) with confirmed COVID-19 were analyzed. Among suspected plus confirmed and confirmed-only COVID-19, 20.9% and 26.9% were hospitalized, 5.4% and 7.2% were admitted to ICU, 4.1% and 5.4% required artificial ventilation, and 3.2% and 3.9% died. Older age, progressive MS phenotype, and higher disability were associated with worse COVID-19 outcomes. Compared to dimethyl fumarate, ocrelizumab and rituximab were associated with hospitalization (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.56, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-2.41; aOR 2.43, 95% CI 1.48-4.02) and ICU admission (aOR 2.30, 95% CI 0.98-5.39; aOR 3.93, 95% CI 1.56-9.89), although only rituximab was associated with higher risk of artificial ventilation (aOR 4.00, 95% CI 1.54-10.39). Compared to pooled other DMTs, ocrelizumab and rituximab were associated with hospitalization (aOR 1.75, 95% CI 1.29-2.38; aOR 2.76, 95% CI 1.87-4.07) and I

Higher intakes of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n3PUFAs) have been associated with lower MS risk. We aimed to test associations between the Omega-3 Index, blood levels of n3PUFAs, fish oil supplement use, and fish consumption with a first clinical diagnosis of CNS demyelination (FCD). Cases (n = 250) had a higher Omega-3 Index compared with a matched group of controls (n = 471) (average treatment effect (ATE)=0.31, p = 0.047, based on augmented inverse probability weighting). A higher percentage of cases than controls used fish oil supplements (cases=17% vs. controls=10%). We found that Omega-3 Index increased as time between FCD and study interview increased (e.g., at or below median (112 days), based on ATE, mean=5.30, 95% CI 5.08, 5.53; above median, mean=5.90, 95% CI 5.51, 6.30). Fish oil supplement use increased in a similar manner (at or below median (112 days), based on ATE, proportion=0.12, 95% CI 0.06, 0.18; above the median, proportion=0.21, 95% CI 0.14, 0.28). Our results suggest a behaviour change post FCD with increased use of fish oil supplements.

Background: Dietary patterns and their association with subsequent clinical course have not been well studied in early multiple sclerosis (MS). Objectives: To describe dietary patterns in people in 5 years following first clinical demyelination and assess associations with MS conversion and relapse. Methods: This study included baseline food frequency questionnaire dietary intake (entry to the Ausimmune Study) and 5-year follow-up; iterated principal factor analysis was applied. MS conversion and relapse risks were assessed by Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, sex, study site, education, body mass index (BMI), smoking and omega-3 supplement use. Results: In cases with a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system (CNS) demyelination, we identified three major dietary patterns, ‘Prudent’, ‘High-Vegetable’ and ‘Mixed’, explaining 43%, 37% and 24% of diet variance in dietary intake, respectively. Fruits, vegetables, fish, wholegrains and nuts loaded highly on the Prudent pattern, starchy vegetables and legumes on the High-Vegetable pattern, and meats and alcohol on the Mixed pattern. Diet factor scores were not associated with MS conversion risk. Those with baseline Prudent scores above the median had significantly lower relapse risk (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.54, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.37, 0.81) with some evidence of a plateau effect. Conclusion: Prudent diet factor score above the median was prospectively associated with lower relapse risk in the 5 years following the first clinical demyelinating event.

Background and Aim: The prevalence of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) reported in different countries varies significantly and in some parts of the world appears to be increasing. The aim of this study was to determine the 2013 prevalence of PBC in Victoria, Australia, and to determine the time trend by comparing it with previous studies undertaken in 1991 and 2002. Method(s): Four case-finding methods were used to identify cases of PBC in Victoria: (1) physicians' survey; (2) tertiary hospital search; (3) liver transplant database search; and (4) private pathology antimitochondrial antibody search. Result(s): The prevalence of PBC in Victoria, Australia, is 189.0 per million using all four methods. The average annual increase in prevalence from 1991 to 2013 was 7.7 per million per year. Using the same case-finding methods as the 1991 Victorian prevalence study (methods 1 and 2), the prevalence of PBC increased from 19.1 per million in 1991 to 49.4 per million in 2002 (P < 0.001) and to 80.7 per million in 2013 (P < 0.001). Conclusion(s): The current prevalence of PBC in Victoria is significantly higher than previously reported. The use of private pathology-based case-finding methods is important in identifying the maximum number of PBC cases.Copyright © 2019 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd

Purpose Multiple sclerosis (MS) often leads to reduced physical activity and exercise participation. Sedentary behaviour is associated with poor health, whereas exercise is effective in managing MS symptoms. This study assessed physical activity, exercise and sedentary sitting time, and identified associations with symptoms. Material and methods Participants of the Australian MS Longitudinal Study completed surveys in 2016. We measured physical activity and sitting time via the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (short-form), and assessed participation in exercise (type and duration). Multivariable regression models assessed associations between physical activity, sitting time and exercise; and demographic characteristics and MS-related symptoms. Results Of the 1216 participants, 53.0% reported moderate-high physical activity levels (71.5% among those with no/mild disability). Median sitting time was 7 h/day. Most (78.4%) participated in aerobic exercise, while only 16.4% participated in strength training. Having a progressive MS onset, more severe symptoms (i.e., cognitive impairment, depression, fatigue, mobility impairment) and being male was indicative of lower physical activity levels and higher sitting time. Conclusions Health promotion efforts should encourage physical activity and exercise, in particular strength training, among people with MS. People with more severe symptoms and progressive disease may require focused exercise promotion from healthcare professionals.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The prevalence of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) reported in different countries varies significantly and in some parts of the world appears to be increasing. The aim of this study was to determine the 2013 prevalence of PBC in Victoria, Australia, and to determine the time trend by comparing it with previous studies undertaken in 1991 and 2002. METHODS: Four case-finding methods were used to identify cases of PBC in Victoria: (1) physicians' survey; (2) tertiary hospital search; (3) liver transplant database search; and (4) private pathology antimitochondrial antibody search. RESULTS: The prevalence of PBC in Victoria, Australia, is 189.0 per million using all four methods. The average annual increase in prevalence from 1991 to 2013 was 7.7 per million per year. Using the same case-finding methods as the 1991 Victorian prevalence study (methods 1 and 2), the prevalence of PBC increased from 19.1 per million in 1991 to 49.4 per million in 2002 (P < 0.001) and to 80.7 per million in 2013 (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The current prevalence of PBC in Victoria is significantly higher than previously reported. The use of private pathology-based case-finding methods is important in identifying the maximum number of PBC cases.

BACKGROUND: The association between childhood vaccinations and infections and risk of multiple sclerosis is unclear; few studies have considered age at vaccination/infection. OBJECTIVE: To explore age-related associations between childhood vaccinations, infection and tonsillectomy and risk of a first clinical diagnosis of CNS demyelination. METHODS: Data on case (n = 275, 76.6% female; mean age 38.6 years) and age- and sex-matched control (n = 529) participants in an incident population-based case-control study included self-reported age at time of childhood vaccinations, infections, and tonsillectomy. Conditional logistic regression models were used to calculate adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Poliomyelitis vaccination prior to school-age was associated with increased risk of a first clinical diagnosis of CNS demyelination (AOR = 2.60, 95%CI 1.02-6.68), based on a very small unvaccinated reference group. Late (11-15 years) rubella vaccination (compared to none) was associated with lower odds of being a case (AOR = 0.47, 95%CI 0.27-0.83). Past infectious mononucleosis at 11-15 years (AOR = 2.84, 95%CI 1.0-7.57) and 16-20 years (AOR = 1.92, 95%CI 1.12-3.27) or tonsillectomy in adolescence (11-15 years: AOR = 2.45, 95%CI 1.12-5.35), including after adjustment for IM, were associated with increased risk of a first clinical diagnosis of CNS demyelination. CONCLUSIONS: Age at vaccination, infection or tonsillectomy may alter the risk of subsequent CNS demyelination. Failing to account for age effects may explain inconsistencies in past findings.

BACKGROUND: We need high-quality data to assess the determinants for COVID-19 severity in people with MS (PwMS). Several studies have recently emerged but there is great benefit in aligning data collection efforts at a global scale. OBJECTIVES: Our mission is to scale-up COVID-19 data collection efforts and provide the MS community with data-driven insights as soon as possible. METHODS: Numerous stakeholders were brought together. Small dedicated interdisciplinary task forces were created to speed-up the formulation of the study design and work plan. First step was to agree upon a COVID-19 MS core data set. Second, we worked on providing a user-friendly and rapid pipeline to share COVID-19 data at a global scale. RESULTS: The COVID-19 MS core data set was agreed within 48 hours. To date, 23 data collection partners are involved and the first data imports have been performed successfully. Data processing and analysis is an on-going process. CONCLUSIONS: We reached a consensus on a core data set and established data sharing processes with multiple partners to address an urgent need for information to guide clinical practice. First results show that partners are motivated to share data to attain the ultimate joint goal: better understand the effect of COVID-19 in PwMS.

BACKGROUND: Due to the considerable burden of multiple sclerosis (MS)-related symptoms and the need to identify effective interventions to prevent disease progression, various nutraceutical interventions have been trialed as adjunctive treatments. The aim of this review was to investigate the efficacy and safety of nutraceutical interventions for clinical and biological outcomes in people with MS. METHODS: In accordance with PRISMA reporting guidelines, a systematic literature search was conducted using three electronic literature databases. Risk of bias was assessed using the Jadad scale. RESULTS: Thirty-seven randomized controlled trials, investigating fourteen nutraceuticals, were included in the review. Trials that investigated alpha lipoic acid (n = 4/6), ginkgo biloba (n = 3/5), vitamin A (n = 2/2), biotin (n = 1/2), carnitine (n = 1/2), green tea (n = 1/2), coenzyme Q10 (n = 1/1), probiotics (n = 1/1), curcumin (n = 1/1), Andrographis paniculata (n = 1/1), ginseng (n = 1/1), and lemon verbena (n = 1/1) were reported to improve biological (e.g. MRI brain volume change, antioxidant capacity) and/or clinical (e.g. fatigue, depression, Expanded Disability Status Scale) outcomes in multiple sclerosis compared to control. However, most trials were relatively small (average study sample size across included studies, n = 55) and there were few replicate studies per nutraceutical to validate the reported results. Furthermore, some nutraceuticals (e.g. green tea and inosine) should be used with caution due to reported adverse events. Risk of bias across most studies was low, with 31 studies receiving a score between 4 and 5 (out of 5) on the Jadad Scale. CONCLUSION: The existing literature provides preliminary support for the use of a number of nutraceutical interventions in MS. However, sufficiently powered long-term trials are required to expand the currently limited literature and to investigate unexplored nutraceuticals that may target relevant pathways involved in

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: The evidence for diet as a risk factor for multiple sclerosis (MS) is inconclusive. We examined the associations between fish consumption and risk of a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system demyelination (FCD), a common precursor to MS. METHODS: The 2003-2006 Ausimmune Study was a case-control study examining environmental risk factors for FCD, with participants recruited from four regions of Australia and matched on age, sex, and study region. Dietary intake data were collected using a food frequency questionnaire. We used conditional logistic regression models to test associations between fish consumption (total, tinned, grilled, and fried) and risk of FCD (249 cases and 438 controls), adjusting for history of infectious mononucleosis, smoking, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations, socio-economic status, omega-3 supplement use, dietary under-reporting, and total energy intake. RESULTS: Higher total fish consumption (per 30 g/day, equivalent to two serves/week) was associated with an 18% reduced risk of FCD (AOR 0.82; 95% CI 0.70, 0.97). While we found no statistically significant associations between grilled and fried fish consumption and risk of FCD, higher tinned fish consumption (per 30 g/day) was associated with a 41% reduced risk of FCD (AOR 0.59; 95% CI 0.39, 0.89). CONCLUSIONS: Tinned fish is predominantly oily, whereas grilled and fried fish are likely to be a combination of oily and white types. Oily fish is high in vitamin D and very long chain polyunsaturated omega-3 fatty acids, both of which may be beneficial in relation to MS.

Background/Objectives: The evidence for diet as a risk factor for multiple sclerosis (MS) is inconclusive. We examined the associations between fish consumption and risk of a first clinical diagnosis of central nervous system demyelination (FCD), a common precursor to MS. Methods: The 2003–2006 Ausimmune Study was a case-control study examining environmental risk factors for FCD, with participants recruited from four regions of Australia and matched on age, sex, and study region. Dietary intake data were collected using a food frequency questionnaire. We used conditional logistic regression models to test associations between fish consumption (total, tinned, grilled, and fried) and risk of FCD (249 cases and 438 controls), adjusting for history of infectious mononucleosis, smoking, serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations, socio-economic status, omega-3 supplement use, dietary under-reporting, and total energy intake. Results: Higher total fish consumption (per 30 g/day, equivalent to two serves/week) was associated with an 18% reduced risk of FCD (AOR 0.82; 95% CI 0.70, 0.97). While we found no statistically significant associations between grilled and fried fish consumption and risk of FCD, higher tinned fish consumption (per 30 g/day) was associated with a 41% reduced risk of FCD (AOR 0.59; 95% CI 0.39, 0.89). Conclusions: Tinned fish is predominantly oily, whereas grilled and fried fish are likely to be a combination of oily and white types. Oily fish is high in vitamin D and very long chain polyunsaturated omega-3 fatty acids, both of which may be beneficial in relation to MS.