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Bonaire is as a small and low-lying island state vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In the future decades, sea level rise and tropical cyclones are expected to increase coastal flood risk on the island. Yet, it is still unknown to what extent coastal flooding will increase and which areas on Bonaire are expected to flood. Therefore, this study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation on Bonaire. First, a static bathtub model is used to estimate the future coastlines of the island under multiple sea level rise projections. Second, the SFINCS model is applied to incorporate the dynamic storm components of storm tide and waves in addition to sea level rise. The results of the inundation models indicate that coastal inundation becomes critical for large parts of Kralendijk in 2150 under scenarios SSP5-8.5 and SSP5-8.5 LC. Under the more optimistic scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 coastal inundation remains limited to the nature reserves of Klein Bonaire, Lac Bay and the saliñas. Therefore, the results of this study indicate the importance for Bonaire of globally limiting climate change to a lower-end future climate scenario.

Small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their fragile ecosystems, small economies, and often extensive, low-lying coastal areas. Therefore, small islands, such as present in the Caribbean Netherlands, are expected to suffer excessively from rising temperatures, changes in precipitation, sea-level rise, coral bleaching, cyclones, droughts and floods. Despite this widespread conviction, scientific evidence of these effects in the Caribbean Netherlands is scarce, and as a result, limited adaptation strategies are developed or implemented by local and Dutch governments.In this study, an analysis is conducted assessing the impacts of climate change for the island of Bonaire. Given the uncertainty regarding the actual level of climate change in the future, four universally recognised scenarios are simulated, ranging from an optimistic scenario “SSP1-1.9” (corresponding to a mean temperature rise of 1.4°C at the end of the 21st century relative to pre-industrial levels), which assumes climate change will modestly increase relative to current levels, to a pessimistic scenario “SSP5-8.5” (corresponding to a mean temperature rise of 4.4°C at the end of the 21st century relative to pre-industrial levels), which suggests very high levels of climate change. Impacts are measured and reported at different moments in time, mainly looking at the years 2050 and 2150, representing short-term and long-term effects of climate change, respectively. A mix of methods from various scientific disciplines are used to estimate the impacts of climate change, including climate and flood models, ecological-economic models, as well as social-science methods such as social media analysis, participatory mapping and key-informant interviews. Although the sub-components of the study are systematically aligned and integrated, four topics can be distinguished: the estimation of the biophysical impacts, the modelling of economic effects, the identification of socio-cultural effects, and the exploration for potential adaptation options.

Bonaire is as a small and low-lying island state vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In the future decades, sea level rise and tropical cyclones are expected to increase coastal flood risk on the island. Yet, it is still unknown to what extent coastal flooding will increase and which areas on Bonaire are expected to flood. Therefore, this study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation on Bonaire. First, a static bathtub model is used to estimate the future coastlines of the island under multiple sea level rise projections. Second, the SFINCS model is applied to incorporate the dynamic storm components of storm tide and waves in addition to sea level rise. The results of the inundation models indicate that coastal inundation becomes critical for large parts of Kralendijk in 2150 under scenarios SSP5-8.5 and SSP5-8.5 LC. Under the more optimistic scenarios SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 coastal inundation remains limited to the nature reserves of Klein Bonaire, Lac Bay and the saliñas. Therefore, the results of this study indicate the importance for Bonaire of globally limiting climate change to a lower-end future climate scenario.