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Background: Most epidemiological studies show a decrease of internalizing disorders at older ages, but it is unclear how the prevalence exactly changes with age, and whether there are different patterns for internalizing symptoms and traits, and for men and women. This study investigates the impact of age and sex on the point prevalence across different mood and anxiety disorders, internalizing symptoms, and neuroticism. Methods: We used cross-sectional data on 146 315 subjects, aged 18–80 years, from the Lifelines Cohort Study, a Dutch general population sample. Between 2012 and 2016, five current internalizing disorders – major depression, dysthymia, generalized anxiety disorder, social phobia, and panic disorder – were assessed according to DSM-IV criteria. Depressive symptoms, anxiety symptoms, neuroticism, and negative affect (NA) were also measured. Generalized additive models were used to identify nonlinear patterns across age, and to investigate sex differences. Results: The point prevalence of internalizing disorders generally increased between the ages of 18 and 30 years, stabilized between 30 and 50, and decreased after age 50. The patterns of internalizing symptoms and traits were different. NA and neuroticism gradually decreased after age 18. Women reported more internalizing disorders than men, but the relative difference remained stable across age (relative risk ~1.7). Conclusions: The point prevalence of internalizing disorders was typically highest between age 30 and 50, but there were differences between the disorders, which could indicate differences in etiology. The relative gap between the sexes remained similar across age, suggesting that changes in sex hormones around the menopause do not significantly influence women's risk of internalizing disorders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cluster analyses have become popular tools for data-driven classification in biological psychiatric research. However, these analyses are known to be sensitive to the chosen methods and/or modelling options, which may hamper generalizability and replicability of findings. To gain more insight into this problem, we used Specification-Curve Analysis (SCA) to investigate the influence of methodological variation on biomarker-based cluster-analysis results. Methods: Proteomics data (31 biomarkers) were used from patients (n = 688) and healthy controls (n = 426) in the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety. In SCAs, consistency of results was evaluated across 1200 k-means and hierarchical clustering analyses, each with a unique combination of the clustering algorithm, fit-index, and distance metric. Next, SCAs were run in simulated datasets with varying cluster numbers and noise/outlier levels to evaluate the effect of data properties on SCA outcomes. Results: The real data SCA showed no robust patterns of biological clustering in either the MDD or a combined MDD/healthy dataset. The simulation results showed that the correct number of clusters could be identified quite consistently across the 1200 model specifications, but that correct cluster identification became harder when the number of clusters and noise levels increased. Conclusion: SCA can provide useful insights into the presence of clusters in biomarker data. However, SCA is likely to show inconsistent results in real-world biomarker datasets that are complex and contain considerable levels of noise. Here, the number and nature of the observed clusters may depend strongly on the chosen model-specification, precluding conclusions about the existence of biological clusters among psychiatric patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background According to current classification systems, patients with major depressive disorder (MDD) may have very different combinations of symptoms. This symptomatic diversity hinders the progress of research into the causal mechanisms and treatment allocation. Theoretically founded subtypes of depression such as atypical, psychotic, and melancholic depression have limited clinical applicability. Data-driven analyses of symptom dimensions or subtypes of depression are scarce. In this systematic review, we examine the evidence for the existence of data-driven symptomatic subtypes of depression. Methods We undertook a systematic literature search of MEDLINE, PsycINFO and Embase in May 2012. We included studies analyzing the depression criteria of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition (DSM-IV) of adults with MDD in latent variable analyses. Results In total, 1176 articles were retrieved, of which 20 satisfied the inclusion criteria. These reports described a total of 34 latent variable analyses: 6 confirmatory factor analyses, 6 exploratory factor analyses, 12 principal component analyses, and 10 latent class analyses. The latent class techniques distinguished 2 to 5 classes, which mainly reflected subgroups with different overall severity: 62 of 71 significant differences on symptom level were congruent with a latent class solution reflecting severity. The latent class techniques did not consistently identify specific symptom clusters. Latent factor techniques mostly found a factor explaining the variance in the symptoms depressed mood and interest loss (11 of 13 analyses), often complemented by psychomotor retardation or fatigue (8 of 11 analyses). However, differences in found factors and classes were substantial. Conclusions The studies performed to date do not provide conclusive evidence for the existence of depressive symptom dimensions or symptomatic subtypes. The wide diversity of identified factors and classes might result either from the absence of patterns to be found, or from the theoretical and modeling choices preceding analysis.

Background: Improvement in depression within the first 2 weeks of antidepressant treatment predicts good outcomes, but non-improvers can still respond or remit, whereas improvers often do not.AimsWe aimed to investigate whether early improvement of individual depressive symptoms better predicts response or remission.Method: We obtained individual patient data of 30 trials comprising 2184 placebo-treated and 6058 antidepressant-treated participants. Primary outcome was week 6 response; secondary outcomes were week 6 remission and week 12 response and remission. We compared models that only included improvement in total score by week 2 (total improvement model) with models that also included improvement in individual symptoms.Results: For week 6 response, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and negative and positive predictive values of the total improvement model were 0.73, 0.67 and 0.74 compared with 0.77, 0.70 and 0.71 for the item improvement model. Model performance decreased for week 12 outcomes. Of predicted non-responders, 29% actually did respond by week 6 and 43% by week 12, which was decreased from the baseline (overall) probabilities of 51% by week 6 and 69% by week 12. In post hoc analyses with continuous rather than dichotomous early improvement, including individual items did not enhance model performance.Conclusions: Examining individual symptoms adds little to the predictive ability of early improvement. Additionally, early non-improvement does not rule out response or remission, particularly after 12 rather than 6 weeks. Therefore, our findings suggest that routinely adapting pharmacological treatment because of limited early improvement would often be premature.Declaration of interestNone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Major depression (MD) occurs about twice as often in women as in men, but it is unclear whether sex differences subsist after disease onset. This study aims to elucidate potential sex differences in rates and risk factors for MD recurrence, in order to improve prediction of course of illness and understanding of its underlying mechanisms. Methods: We used prospective data from a general population sample (n = 653) that experienced a recent episode of MD. A diverse set of potential risk factors for recurrence of MD was analyzed using Cox models subject to elastic net regularization for males and females separately. Accuracy of the prediction models was tested in same-sex and opposite-sex test data. Additionally, interactions between sex and each of the risk factors were investigated to identify potential sex differences. Results: Recurrence rates and the impact of most risk factors were similar for men and women. For both sexes, prediction models were highly multifactorial including risk factors such as comorbid anxiety, early traumas, and family history. Some subtle sex differences were detected: for men, prediction models included more risk factors concerning characteristics of the depressive episode and family history of MD and generalized anxiety, whereas for women, models included more risk factors concerning early and recent adverse life events and socioeconomic problems. Conclusions: No prominent sex differences in risk factors for recurrence of MD were found, potentially indicating similar disease maintaining mechanisms for both sexes. Course of MD is a multifactorial phenomenon for both males and females. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heterogeneity of major depressive disorder (MDD) illness course complicates clinical decision-making. While efforts to use symptom profiles or biomarkers to develop clinically useful prognostic subtypes have had limited success, a recent report showed that machine learning (ML) models developed from self-reports about incident episode characteristics and comorbidities among respondents with lifetime MDD in the World Health Organization World Mental Health (WMH) Surveys predicted MDD persistence, chronicity, and severity with good accuracy. We report results of model validation in an independent prospective national household sample of 1,056 respondents with lifetime MDD at baseline. The WMH ML models were applied to these baseline data to generate predicted outcome scores that were compared to observed scores assessed 10–12 years after baseline. ML model prediction accuracy was also compared to that of conventional logistic regression models. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) based on ML (.63 for high chronicity and .71–.76 for the other prospective outcomes) was consistently higher than for the logistic models (.62–.70) despite the latter models including more predictors. 34.6–38.1% of respondents with subsequent high persistence-chronicity and 40.8–55.8% with the severity indicators were in the top 20% of the baseline ML predicted risk distribution, while only 0.9% of respondents with subsequent hospitalizations and 1.5% with suicide attempts were in the lowest 20% of the ML predicted risk distribution. These results confirm that clinically useful MDD risk stratification models can be generated from baseline patient self-reports and that ML methods improve on conventional methods in developing such models.