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The climate is changing in Europe: average temperatures are increasing, and so is the frequency of extreme weather events. Climate change has a severe impact on areas suitable for growing certain crops and on food safety, for example, affecting the occurrence of the aflatoxin contamination of maize. The aim of this study was to obtain insights into the impact of climate change on possible changes in land use in Europe, particularly in areas suitable for maize cultivation, and on the probability of the mycotoxin contamination of maize in order to give directions for long-term adaptation to climate change. By combining a land use model and a mycotoxin prediction model, the suitability of land for maize cultivation and the probability of aflatoxin contamination were estimated for suitable areas in Europe, comparing the current climate with the 2050 scenario. In 2050, the occurrence of aflatoxin contamination in Europe is predicted to severely increase, especially in Central and Southern Europe. More northern regions, presently unsuitable for maize cultivation, will become suitable for maize cultivation in 2050. In the baseline scenario, most regions suitable for maize cultivation have a low probability of aflatoxin contamination, whereas in 2050, about half of the regions suitable for maize cultivation have a medium to high probability of aflatoxin contamination. Regions for safely growing maize for human consumption will shift from the southern to the northern half of Europe.

Land use GIS files of Bonaire at a resolution of 10x10 meters. This publication contains two geo-tif files and an accompanying QGIS style. The '2020' GIS file represents the current land use. The '2050' file represents the normative 'Nature Inclusive' possible future. The latter was produced based on stakeholders consultation in combination with participatory GIS. . For more information, see Verweij et al (2022) - https://doi.org/10.18174/571039 or https://edepot.wur.nl/571039, Land use GIS files of Bonaire at a resolution of 10x10 meters. This publication contains two geo-tif files and an accompanying QGIS style. The '2020' GIS file represents the current land use. The '2050' file represents the normative 'Nature Inclusive' possible future. The latter was produced based on stakeholders consultation in combination with participatory GIS. . For more information, see Verweij et al (2022) - https://doi.org/10.18174/571039 or https://edepot.wur.nl/571039

Land use GIS files of the Bono East region in Ghana at a resolution of 30x30 meters. This publication contains two geo-tif files and an accompanying QGIS style. The '2020' GIS file represents the current land use. The '2050' file represents a possible future as created through the application of the iCLUE land use projection model. For more information, see Duku et al (2023) - https://doi.org/10.18174/584095 or https://edepot.wur.nl/584095, Land use GIS files of the Bono East region in Ghana at a resolution of 30x30 meters. This publication contains two geo-tif files and an accompanying QGIS style. The '2020' GIS file represents the current land use. The '2050' file represents a possible future as created through the application of the iCLUE land use projection model. For more information, see Duku et al (2023) - https://doi.org/10.18174/584095 or https://edepot.wur.nl/584095

This report provides a description of the guidelines and assessment of the conservation status of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) in the Netherlands. The conservation status is, following guidelines set by the European Committee (EC), assessed by evaluating four individual criteria, being range, population, habitat and future prospects. For this assessment Favourable Reference Values (FRV’s) have been determined. Assessment of the four criteria leads to an overall assessment. In accordance with these guidelines, the red fox is currently in a favourable conservation status., Dit rapport beschrijft de methodiek en bepaling van de staat van instandhouding van de vos (Vulpes vulpes) in Nederland. De staat van instandhouding is – conform richtlijnen vanuit de Europese Commissie (EC) – uitgewerkt in vier parameters, te weten verspreidingsgebied, populatie, leefgebied en toekomstperspectief. Hiervoor zijn gunstige referentiewaarden (Favourable Reference Values; FRV’s) bepaald. Beoordeling van de vier parameters leidt tot een eindbeoordeling. Conform deze methodiek verkeert de vos momenteel in een gunstige staat van instandhouding.

As part of the expertise development within the WOT, and in collaboration with a number of other knowledge institutes, we worked in recent years on the Natural Capital Model. This model consists of a set of ecosystem service models and is designed to determining the biophysical state of the natural capital in the Netherlands (mapping), as well as estimating the effects of existing and new policy and future developments on this natural capital (modelling). The model determines the potential societal demand for goods and services and to what extent ecosystems in the Netherlands meet this demand. The aim of this report is to present the technical underpinning of the latest version of the Natural Capital Model, including model assumptions, data requirements and data outputs. With the right input, the model can generate figures and spatial maps for the thirteen ecosystem services provided by urban, rural and natural areas: drinking water production, wood production, biomass for energy production, pollination, soil fertility, water retention, urban cooling, water purification, pest control, carbon sequestration, air quality regulation, outdoor recreation and natural heritage. This report is written following the Status A quality criteria of the WUR. Status A quality is about model quality, describing the model, assumptions, and assessing validation, calibration and uncertainty analysis. Actually obtaining Status A, applying the model and improving the individual ecosystem service models will be a priority for the coming years., Als onderdeel van de Kennisontwikkeling binnen de WOT is er in samenwerking met een aantal andere kennisinstituten de afgelopen jaren gewerkt aan het Natural Capital Model. Dit model bestaat uit een set van ecosysteemdienstmodellen en is ontworpen om zowel de biofysische toestand (mapping) van het natuurlijk kapitaal in Nederland te kunnen bepalen, als het effect in te kunnen schatten van bestaand en nieuw beleid en van toekomstige ontwikkelingen van dit natuurlijk kapitaal (modellering). Het model bepaalt de potentiële maatschappelijke vraag aan goederen en diensten en de mate waarin ecosystemen in Nederland aan deze vraag kunnen voldoen. Het doel van dit rapport is om de technische onderbouwing van de meest recente versie van het Natural Capital Model te presenteren, inclusief model-aannamen, benodigde gegevens en resultaten. Met de juiste input kan het model cijfers en ruimtelijke kaarten voor dertien ecosysteemdiensten genereren voor stedelijke, landelijke en natuurlijke gebieden: drinkwaterproductie, houtproductie, biomassa voor energieproductie, bestuiving, bodemvruchtbaarheid, waterberging, verkoeling in de stad, waterzuivering, plaagonderdrukking, koolstofvastlegging, luchtzuivering, groene recreatie en natuurlijk erfgoed. Dit rapport is geschreven conform het Status A-kwaliteitssysteem van de WUR. Status A-kwaliteit gaat over modelkwaliteit en beschrijft de modellen, aannames, validatie, kalibratie en onzekerheden. Het daadwerkelijk verkrijgen van deze A-status, het toepassen van het model en het verbeteren van de afzonderlijke ecosysteemdienstmodellen heeft prioriteit voor de komende jaren.

The circular bioeconomy is the intersection of bioeconomy and circular economy. It strives towards a more sustainable and resource efficient world with a low carbon footprint. The circular bioeconomy increases the resource efficiency of processes and the use of recycled materials. In addition, fossil carbon is substituted through renewable carbon from biomass produced with agriculture, forestry and the marine environment. As the above definition illustrates, several interlinked sectors, represented by different scientific disciplines, are involved in studying the bioeconomy. These disciplines use different vocabularies, principles and concepts, which must be aligned to enable a coherent and consistent assessment of future scenarios and potential policies. To this end, around fifteen individuals representing the disciplines engaged in a process of collaborative modelling during workshops and bilateral meetings. This report describes i) the co-production of the conceptual model of the circular bioeconomy and ii) the transfer of the conceptual model into a modelling framework of existing models, and; iii) the application of one of the computer models within the context of the circular bio-economy, i.e. iClue, in relation to the linked models of the modelling framework

If the Netherlands were to adopt a nature-inclusive planning regime this could make a significant contribution towards resolving the current challenges facing Dutch society. This is the outcome of the analysis of the Nature- Inclusive scenario, one of the three scenarios in the National Nature Outlook 2050. In this scenario there is an increase in the provision of multiple ecosystem services that make important contributions to meeting the major challenges facing society in the areas of climate, biodiversity, water quality and the quality of the human environment. It is the first time that the effects of a nature-inclusive future have been quantified in this way for the Netherlands. But even a far-reaching nature-inclusive spatial development of the Netherlands would still leave issues to be resolved and additional measures would be needed to fully overcome these societal challenges. Moreover, nature-inclusive spatial development would involve major changes not only in spatial planning and design, but also in people’s behaviour., Met een natuurinclusieve inrichting van Nederland kan een belangrijke bijdrage worden geleverd aan het realiseren van actuele maatschappelijke opgaven. Dat blijkt uit de analyse van het scenario Natuurinclusief, één van de drie scenario’s uit de Natuurverkenning 2050. In dit scenario is er sprake van toename van het aanbod van meerdere ecosysteemdiensten. Deze diensten zijn van belang voor het realiseren van actuele maatschappelijke opgaven op het gebied van onder andere klimaat, biodiversiteit, waterkwaliteit, en de kwaliteit van de leefomgeving. Het is de eerste keer in Nederland dat de effecten van een natuurinclusief toekomstbeeld op deze manier zijn gekwantificeerd. Ook bij een verregaand natuurinclusieve inrichting van Nederland blijft er nog wel sprake van restopgaven. Naast natuurinclusieve maatregelen zijn ook aanvullende maatregelen nodig om de maatschappelijke opgaven volledig het hoofd te bieden. Ook vraagt een natuurinclusieve inrichting van Nederland om grote veranderingen, zowel ruimtelijk, als qua verdienmodellen en gedragsverandering.

This report provides a description of the guidelines and assessment of the conservation status of the European hare (Lepus europaeus) and the European rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in the Netherlands. The conservation status is, following guidelines set by the European Committee (EC), assessed by evaluating four individual criteria, being range, population, habitat and future prospects. For both species, Favourable Reference Values (FRV’s) have been determined. Assessment of the four criteria leads to an overall assessment. In accordance with these guidelines, both European hare and European rabbit are currently in an unfavorable (bad) conservation status., Dit rapport beschrijft de methodiek en bepaling van de staat van instandhouding van haas (Lepus europaeus) en konijn (Oryctolagus cuniculus) in Nederland. De staat van instandhouding is - conform richtlijnen vanuit de Europese Commissie (EC) – uitgewerkt in vier parameters, te weten verspreidingsgebied, populatie, leefgebied en toekomstperspectief. Voor beide soorten zijn hiervoor gunstige referentiewaarden (Favourable Reference Values; FRV’s) bepaald. Beoordeling van de vier parameters leidt tot een eindbeoordeling. Zowel haas als konijn verkeert momenteel conform deze methodiek in een zeer ongunstige staat van instandhouding.

Agriculture on Bonaire does not support the demand for food on the island, and therefore the people are dependent on expensive food importation. Recently, any Bonairean people abandon their kunukus to take jobs in the urban area in tourism or off-island in the oil industry. Traditionally, a kunuku was used as an agricultural plot for food production for the household. A kunuku would usually have a cactus fence used to contain grazing goats or chickens, or to produce household amounts of sorghum maize, and keep animals out. In order to help restore nature to Bonaire and include it in the daily lives of people, restoration and use of cactus fences on kunukus are being considered as nature inclusive measure. In order to get a better understanding of the current use of kunukus and presence of cactus fences on the island, satellite information and field observations were collected about the state of kunukus and the use of cactus fences. Results show that kunukus are rapidly being abandoned. The predictive accuracy from satellite imagery of active kunukus was high (92.5%). Furthermore, only 4% of the active kunukus have a well-maintained cactus fence. Implications of these findings are discussed with focus on nature inclusiveness and the use of the kunuku as a means to restore a cultural pride, self-sufficiency, local economic diversification and a healthier food culture on Bonaire.

Bonaire is facing major challenges including (mass) tourism, population growth, urban expansion, climate change, biodiversity loss and the unilateral dependency on tourism. In thirty years, Bonaire will inevitably look different. Here, two different possible futures are presented, to form a basis for dialogue amongst stakeholders and to stimulate a positive change and sustainability on Bonaire. One of these scenarios follows current trends (business-as-usual), and the other bends those trends into a nature-inclusive future after a vision developed by a trans-disciplinary team of researchers, local experts and stakeholders. For both scenarios drivers and impacts are visualized and documented on climate, tourist numbers, population,infrastructure, resources, land use, erosion and nature. Visualizing scenarios is one important piece in creating awareness about the future as it allows to shed light of the difficult to grasp long-term effects, and explicitly showcases current trends. It gives opportunities to imagine a future that looks different from the prognosis, and to inspire to work towards a sustainable and desirable future.

In the context of increased pressures on land for food and non-food production, it is relevant to understand better, which land resources have become unused and abandoned and where these lands are. Data on where these lands are and what their extend is are not collected in regular statistics. In this paper, we present an approach to detect signs of abandonment in cropping land using radar coherence data. The methodology was tested in the Spanish regions of Albacete and Soria where agricultural land abandonment is a common process. The results show that land abandonment detection using radar coherence data works well for the region of Albacete in arable lands. The radar-based analysis is a relatively simple method to detect land abandonment in an early to longer term state and can therefore be applied once developed and tested further in other regions to larger areas of the EU where land abandonment is serious and needs monitoring and policy response. The applicability of the method to Soria and Emilia Romagna (Italy) regions shows that there are still challenges to overcome to make the method more widely applicable for detecting land abandonment in other environmental zones of Europe. Lack of reliable training and validation data, like Land Parcel Identification Systems data, in regions is one of the challenges in this respect.

Current spatial planning methods are often technocratic, slow, fail to use the right kind of evidence or do not involve (all) the actors needed to create support and consensus. We present a method that facilitates the use of evidence (data) in participatory spatial planning processes, resulting in a joint understanding of the most important causalities, as a means to build capacity across actors. QUICKScan is a participatory modeling method that links stakeholder- and decision maker knowledge and preferences to available spatial and spatio-statistical data, and is designed for group use in a multi-stakeholder workshop setting. We describe four urban QUICKScan applications, that vary in objective, scale and institutional setting. The most critical in organizing a QUICKScan session is to: (i) include crucial participants in a single plenary workshop (decision maker, local data expert, and local thematic experts), (ii) create an open atmosphere in which each and everyone's opinion is treated equally, (iii) dialogue is more important than an abundance of detailed spatial data, and (iv) start with simple modeling rules and iterate often while expanding the set of rules and trying out alternatives.

Carbon neutrality in the transport sector is a key challenge for the growing bioeconomy as the share of biofuels has stagnated over the past decade. This can be attributed to basic economics and a lack of a robust market for these technologies. Consequently, more sustainable biomass supply concepts are required that reduce negative impacts on the environment and at the same time promote environmental services for sustainable agricultural cropping systems including erosion prevention, soil fertility improvement, greenhouse gas mitigation, and carbon sequestration. One promising concept is the cultivation of perennial biomass crops such as Miscanthus (Miscanthus Andersson) as biofuel feedstock. In this study, the multiple environmental services provided by Miscanthus are first explored and subsequently monetized. Then the integration of Miscanthus cultivation for biomass production into European agricultural systems is assessed. One hectare of Miscanthus provides society with environmental services to a value of 1,200 to 4,183 € a−1. These services are even more pronounced when cultivation takes place on marginal agricultural land. The integration of Miscanthus into existing agricultural practices aids both conservation and further optimization of socio-economic welfare and landscape diversification. As these environmental services are more beneficial to the public than the Miscanthus farmers, subsidies are required to close the gap between biofuels and biodiversity that are calculated based on the provision of environmental services. Similar approaches to that developed in this study may be suitable for the implementation of other biomass cropping systems and therefore help foster the transition to a bioeconomy.

Monitoring data of visitors of the New Forest, UK. Each track has been collected with an eTrex or eTrex Venture GPS device. Explanation of the headers can be found in Table A.3. The dataset contains 1563 tracks of which 1553 could be used for further analyses in our research., Monitoring data of visitors of the New Forest, UK. Each track has been collected with an eTrex or eTrex Venture GPS device. Explanation of the headers can be found in Table A.3. The dataset contains 1563 tracks of which 1553 could be used for further analyses in our research.

This study deals with approaches for a social-ecological friendly European bioeconomy based on biomass from industrial crops cultivated on marginal agricultural land. The selected crops to be investigated are: Biomass sorghum, camelina, cardoon, castor, crambe, Ethiopian mustard, giant reed, hemp, lupin, miscanthus, pennycress, poplar, reed canary grass, safflower, Siberian elm, switchgrass, tall wheatgrass, wild sugarcane, and willow. The research question focused on the overall crop growth suitability under low-input management. The study assessed: (i) How the growth suitability of industrial crops can be defined under the given natural constraints of European marginal agricultural lands; and (ii) which agricultural practices are required for marginal agricultural land low-input systems (MALLIS). For the growth-suitability analysis, available thresholds and growth requirements of the selected industrial crops were defined. The marginal agricultural land was categorized according to the agro-ecological zone (AEZ) concept in combination with the marginality constraints, so-called 'marginal agro-ecological zones' (M-AEZ). It was found that both large marginal agricultural areas and numerous agricultural practices are available for industrial crop cultivation on European marginal agricultural lands. These results help to further describe the suitability of industrial crops for the development of social-ecologically friendly MALLIS in Europe.

The dairy clusters North Shewa, Adama - Arsi – Robé, and South & West Shewa-Shambu have highest scores for potential development of their dairy sectors to increase its milk produc-tion. These clusters score high on the key eval-uation criteria feed and fodder production and availability, current production situation and ex-pansion in milk volume. This means there is a strong potential to achieve growth in milk pro-duction from these clusters. A second group of four followers consists of Hawassa & Sahimene, Bahir Dar – Debre Markos, Gurage - Hosaena & Wolayita, and Gondar - Debre Tabor. These clusters also meet conditions that show poten-tial to produce extra milk. The lowest scores for future milk expansion are for the clusters East & West Hararghe, Weldiya – Dese – Kemise, and Maychew. Despite their relatively lower scores, these clusters do have unexploited op-portunities for dairy development; though it will take more efforts to develop a formal dairy sec-tor within these clusters.