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Although trends in climate change are expected to continue, there is considerable uncertainty about the precise rate of change and its concrete impact. A key element in decision-making on climate adaptation is how to deal with this uncertainty. This chapter provides the background information on dealing with uncertainties: descriptions of uncertainty typology, methods of assessment, as well as a framework for dealing with uncertainty in climate adaptation decision-making. The chapter highlights that the classical elements used in uncertainty assessment (statistics, scenarios and recognised ignorance) can be expanded toward five principal uncertainty dimensions that are crucial for informing/supporting adaptation decision-making: location, level, nature, qualification of knowledge base, and value-ladenness. In practice, to deal with uncertainties, but also because of time and budget constraints, uncertainty assessments may follow a three step approach: (1) identify and characterise sources of uncertainty; (2) weigh, appraise, and prioritise uncertainties; and (3) select and apply methods for dealing with uncertainties in policy. Based on political and societal preferences, adaptation strategies could either use top-down or bottom-up approaches considering adaptation action based on the best prediction, robustness, or resilience. Adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the system’s and society’s capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) seem most appropriate. For potential climate-related effects for which rough risk estimates are available, ‘robust’ measures are recommended. For potential climate effects with limited societal and/or political relevance, ‘no-regret’ measures are recommended. For highly relevant potential climate-related effects, precautionary measures can be considered. The chapter provides also links to the uncertainty approaches in the case studies described in Chap. 4.

Climate change highlights the challenges for long-term policy making in the face of persistent and irreducible levels of uncertainties. It calls for the development of flexible approaches, innovative governance and other elements that contribute to effective and adaptive decision-making. Exploring these new approaches is also a challenge for those involved in climate research and development of adaptation policy. Targeted specifically at policy developers and advisors, practitioners, climate knowledge brokers, researchers and interested adaptation decision-makers, this book differs from other titles addressing climate change adaptation and uncertainty by using real life cases to address distinct and pertinent uncertainties in actual adaptation situations. The authors introduce the role of uncertainties in informing adaptation decisions, showing why and how this is important, and why decisions do not have to wait until uncertainties are resolved. They explore uncertainty assessments supporting decision-making on climate change adaptation, with sections on variability, uncertainty typology, climate change, and projection of risks. A discussion of national adaptation planning follows with sections on sources and levels of uncertainty, communication of uncertainty, and guidance for adaptation planning under uncertainty. The book provides a dozen real-life examples of adaptation decision making in the form of case studies: · Water supply management in Portugal, England and Wales and Hungary · Flooding, including flood risk in Ireland, coastal flooding and erosion in Southwest France, and flood management in Australia’s Hutt River region · Transport and utilities, including the Austrian Federal railway system, public transit in Dresden, and Québec hydro-electric power · Report examining communication of large numbers of climate scenarios in Dutch climate adaptation workshops The concluding section outlines a new support framework for adaptation decisions under uncertainty, as well as guidance, recommendations and decision support for readers to apply in their own work. In the spirit of the newly adopted EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change, the book aims - as does the CIRCLE-2 project from which it emanates - to assist informed decision-making and to provide added value through increased knowledge sharing.

In this report we present a detailed framework of what could become a generally applicable monitoring and evaluation method to assess the effectiveness and efficiency of implementation of climate adaptation policies.

Engelse vertaling: rapport 500037011

Several times per year the one-hour maximum ozone concentration of 240 mug/m3, which is the Dutch air quality guideline, is exceeded. Epidemiological studies show a relation between photochemical episodes, like ozone, and an increase in respiratory symptoms. It is important to show which effects ozone has on the respiratory tract and at which concentration these effects occur. In experimental studies in which humans are exposed to ozone, the lower airway is investigated by studying biopsies and bronchial lavage fluid (BAL). These techniques can not be applied in epidemiological studies with large healthy human populations, because the techniques are very time consuming and invasive. The nose is the prime port of entry for inspired air, and therefore, the first region of the respiratory tract that comes into contact with airborne pollutants. Nasal lavage (NAL) has helped to analyse the stage of infection, immune response or allergic reaction. A literature search was undertaken to investigate whether or not NAL is useful to determine effects of photochemical air pollution and biomarkers predicting the presence of effects of pollution in the lower respiratory tract. This literature search showed that in experimental studies to ozone and in epidemiological studies at increased concentrations of photochemical air pollution the number of polymorphonuclear cells (PMN's), like neutrophils, and to a lower extent eosinophils is increased in NAL. These were not only shown in NAL, but also in BAL.

In Nederland wordt jaarlijks regelmatig de grenswaarde voor ozon (1 uur maximale ozonconcentratie van 240 mug/m3) overschreden. Door de Gezondheidsraad is een indeling gemaakt van de mogelijke responsen bij blootstelling aan fotochemische luchtverontreiniging tijdens zomersmogepisoden, waarbij ozon de belangrijkste component is. Uit recent epidemiologisch onderzoek in Nederland blijkt dat een reductie in longfunctie te meten is, terwijl de grenswaarde voor Nederland, zijnde 240 mug/m3, niet werd overschreden. Het is onbekend of herhaalde ozonblootstelling uiteindelijk resulteert in chronische ziekten van de long. Om de epidemiologische studies voort te zetten, zal in een soortgelijk protocol de aanwezigheid van ontstekingsreacties worden bestudeerd in neuslavagevloeistof. Hierbij wordt ervan uitgegaan dat ontstekingsreacties in de neus, veroorzaakt door ozon, relevante informatie geven over effecten in de long. Dit rapport bevat de resultaten van een vooronderzoek waarin bij 12 volwassen vrijwilligers van het RIVM gedurende de maanden oktober tot december 1993 neuslavages zijn uitgevoerd. In deze voorstudie werd het aantal leukocyten, de concentratie immunomediatoren en biomerkers voor exsudatie in neuslavagevloeistof bepaald. Deze voorproef met 12 vrijwilligers heeft duidelijk aangetoond dat het mogelijk is voor ontstekingsreacties relevante biomerkers in de NAL te meten en dat deze studie de weg opent voor epidemiologisch onderzoek in kinderen, waarbij zowel longfunctie als ontstekingsreactie kunnen worden bestudeerd.

Onderzoeksresultaten worden representeerd van de cumulatieve blootstelling aan geluid (subchronisch) en ozon (acuut) bij ratten. Geluid-blootstelling vond plaats gedurende 1 tot 3 weken bij een intensiteit van 85 tot 105 dB witte ruis middels een gerandomiseerd blootstellingsregime van 180 tot 540 minuten per dag. Blootstelling aan geluid induceerde verhogingen van de basale spiegels van corticosteron, prolactine en noradrenaline waarbij factoren als geluidsintensiteit en blootstellingsregime een belangrijke invloed hadden. Daarnaast resulteerde geluid-blootstelling in een significant veranderde reactie op een nieuwe acute stressor hetgeen aangeeft dat de fysiologische status van het dier duidelijk is veranderd. In vergelijking met blootstelling aan alleen ozon, leidde de cumulatieve blootstelling aan geluid en ozon tot significante veranderingen in de toxiciteit van ozon. Zowel met betrekking tot biochemische als immunologische variabelen, werden aanwijzingen gevonden voor een interactie tussen geluid en ozon. Echter, deze effecten waren in kwantitatief opzicht bescheiden van omvang en leidden niet tot een algemene versterking van de toxische effecten na acute ozon blootstelling. Verder onderzoek zal moeten uitwijzen wat de consequenties van de gevonden interacties zijn voor langdurig of herhaalde ozon blootstelling. In het algemeen kan worden gesteld, dat de huidige studies geen aanwijzingen hebben opgeleverd die erop duiden dat cumulatieve blootstelling aan heterogene contaminanten kan leiden tot een versterking of verandering van gezondheidseffecten.

Background: Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods: We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. Results: The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough ‘order-of-magnitude’ estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation. Conclusions: For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system’s and society’s capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are most appropriate. For climate related health effects for which rough risk estimates are available, ‘robust decision-making’ is recommended. For health effects with limited societal and policy relevance, we recommend focusing on no-regret measures. For highly relevant health effects, precautionary measures can be considered. This study indicated that analysing and characterising uncertainty by means of a typology can be a very useful approach for selection and prioritization of preferred adaptation policies to reduce future climate related health risks

This paper discusses critical issues underlying the interface between air quality science, stakeholder participation, and policy development within the context of the European AIRNET Network multistakeholder project. The paper argues that it is not only the content of air pollution and health issues that stakeholders consider important, but also the process and mechanisms by which the interface operates. A visual representation of the interaction between science, society, and stakeholders in the development, dissemination, and evaluation of effective air quality policy strategies is provided. The paper discusses the role of AIRNET in supporting the Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) program and assesses the AIRNET experience in establishing a network to bridge the gap between air quality policy, stakeholders, the public, and scientific communities.

Ammonium nitrate is the most prominent component of secondary PM10 in the Netherlands. In our study, healthy and asthmatic mice were exposed to fine (CMD = 0.3 mum; 4 x 10 exp. 3 particles per cm3) and ultrafine (CMD = 0.03 mum; 2 x 10. exp. 5 particles per cm3) ammonium nitrate. The mean mass concentrations were 140 and 250 mug/m3, respectively. At exposure levels comparable to previous studies with ammonium bisulfate and ammonium ferrosulfate, pulmonary effects were observed in both healthy and asthmatic mice. The effects were mainly found after exposure to fine rather than to ultrafine nitrate. In view of the mass concentration of fine aerosols being even lower than that of the ultrafine aerosols, we conclude that not only are mass concentrations important for the development of adverse effects but also the specific size of the particles. Dosimetry models will be useful in confirming this conclusion. There were no signs of asthmatic mice being more sensitive to secondary aerosols than healthy mice

Fijnstof is een verzamelbegrip voor zeer kleine deeltjes die zweven in de lucht en die met het blote oog niet zichtbaar zijn. Het gaat om alle deeltjes kleiner dan 10 um, ook wel aangeduid als PM10. De chemische samenstelling van PM10 is heel complex en verschilt van dag tot dag. Deze deeltjes ontstaan deels door verkeer, industrie, energie opwekking, landbouw maar zijn ook van natuurlijke oorsprong zoals zeezout en opwaaiend stof. Expositie aan PM10 wordt geassocieerd met toename aan cardiopulmonaire aandoeningen en (vervroegde) sterfte. Er is echter nog onvoldoende bewijs dat PM10 echt deze effecten veroorzaakt en welke chemische of biologische stoffen daarvan dan verantwoordelijk zijn. Het is belangrijk om aan te kunnen geven welke de bronnen zijn die deze schadelijke stoffen in de lucht brengen. De overheid kan met deze informatie gericht beleid voeren om de uitstoot van bepaalde stoffen te verminderen. Omdat verder terugdringen van de niveaus van luchtverontreiniging grote maatschappelijke kosten met zich mee brengt is het van essentieel belang vast te stellen wat de causale factor(en) is (zijn), welke de in bevolkingsonderzoek waargenomen gezondheidseffecten kunnen verklaren. Alleen dan kan de bron-tot-effect keten voldoende en adequaat worden beschreven om een gericht kosten-effectief bestrijdingsbeleid te formuleren. Onderdeel van deze keten is het schatten van de ge6nhaleerde dosis van fijnstof op basis van de uitwendige concentratie en fysische karakteristieken van het fijnstof. In dit rapport wordt een beschrijving gegeven van een recent door het Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology (CIIT) en het RIVM ontwikkelt computerprogramma MPPDep (Multiple Pathway Particle Deposition model). Het model kan gebruikt worden voor het onderzoeken van verschillen in doses en depositie tussen mensen en proefdieren (rat) voor extrapolatie doeleinden en risk assessment. Ook het effect van ademhalingsgedrag op de depositie van aerosolen (rust versus activiteit, oud versus jong, ziek versus gezond) of de invloed van de grootte van een fijnstof deeltje op de gedeponeerde massa kan hiermee in kaart worden gebracht. In de nabije toekomst zal dit model verder moeten worden uitgebreid met modules voor klaring en retententie van de deeltjes in de luchtwegen.

In this second report on acute inhalation studies with model compounds for secondary particulate matter, results are presented of a study with fine ammonium ferrosulfate aerosol in asthmatic animals. We hypothesised that an aerosol with a transitional metal could produce enhanced symptoms of asthma. We exposed healthy and 'asthmatic' mice to fine (MMD = 459 nm; 4.1 x 10 exp 3 particles per cm3) ammonium ferrosulfate. The mean actual mass concentration was 250 mug/m3. The pulmonary response in mice was determined using bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) analysis, airway reactivity measurements and histopathology. The results suggest that ammonium ferrosulfate as a model compound for the secondary fraction of ambient PM 10 at concentrations near ambient levels and using short-term exposures exert no pulmonary effects in healthy mice and in a asthma mouse model. In comparison with a previous experiment in which animals were exposed to ammonium bisulfate, no additional effect of the transitional metal, iron, could be established.

The summary in booklet form 'Fijn stof nader bekeken' (Particulate Matter: a closer look) , published in Dutch by the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (MNP) and the Environment and Safety Division of the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), has been designed to present the facts on particulate matter in a coherent framework. Current knowledge on particulate matter is conveyed here under the headings: What is known? What is unknown? What are the uncertainties? The background to this publication is the current social and political debate on the consequences of the Netherlands air quality legislation, which, in turn, is based on European legislation. The fact that new spatial developments and infrastructural projects are at risk of not being realized due to the large-scale exceedances of limit values for particulate matter occurring in the Netherlands is leading to serious social effects. Moreover, airborne particulate matter poses serious risks to human health. The particulate matter subject is complicated and accompanied by administrative dilemmas, legally binding limit values, concerns of citizens, scientific uncertainties and spatial-economic consequences. Many questions and current discussions have provided reasons enough to compose this scientific summary on particulate matter. Although this booklet does not present new information, it has succeeded in bringing together all the published information on particulate matter referring to the situation in the Netherlands.

Het klimaat verandert: de zeespiegel stijgt, de afvoeren van de rivieren nemen toe. De natuur reageert al op de opgetreden temperatuurveranderingen. De waarneembare effecten in Nederland zijn beperkt van omvang. De komende tientallen jaren zullen de ontwikkelingen naar verwachting sneller gaan. Extreem warme en droge zomers zullen vaker vóórkomen. Daarnaasy is de snelheid waarmee de temperatuur stijgt, waarschijnlijk te hoog voor veel organismen om zich te kunnen aanpassen of te kunnen verhuizen. Ook de landbouw en de toeristensector staan voor veranderingen, die economisch gezien zowel positief als negatief kunnen uitpakken; dat is onder andere afhankelijk van ontwikkelingen elders in Europa. De verwachte gezondheidswinst door algehele temperatuurstijging wordt waarschijnlijk grotendeels teniet gedaan door het verhoogde sterfterisico¿s bij extreem warm weer