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43 results on '"van Bork, Riet"'

1. Fair coins tend to land on the same side they started: Evidence from 350,757 flips

Author

Bartoš, František, Sarafoglou, Alexandra, Godmann, Henrik R., Sahrani, Amir, Leunk, David Klein, Gui, Pierre Y., Voss, David, Ullah, Kaleem, Zoubek, Malte J., Nippold, Franziska, Aust, Frederik, Vieira, Felipe F., Islam, Chris-Gabriel, Zoubek, Anton J., Shabani, Sara, Petter, Jonas, Roos, Ingeborg B., Finnemann, Adam, Lob, Aaron B., Hoffstadt, Madlen F., Nak, Jason, de Ron, Jill, Derks, Koen, Huth, Karoline, Terpstra, Sjoerd, Bastelica, Thomas, Matetovici, Magda, Ott, Vincent L., Zetea, Andreea S., Karnbach, Katharina, Donzallaz, Michelle C., John, Arne, Moore, Roy M., Assion, Franziska, van Bork, Riet, Leidinger, Theresa E., Zhao, Xiaochang, Motaghi, Adrian Karami, Pan, Ting, Armstrong, Hannah, Peng, Tianqi, Bialas, Mara, Pang, Joyce Y. -C., Fu, Bohan, Yang, Shujun, Lin, Xiaoyi, Sleiffer, Dana, Bognar, Miklos, Aczel, Balazs, and Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

Subjects
Mathematics - History and Overview, Physics - Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability, Statistics - Other Statistics
Abstract

Many people have flipped coins but few have stopped to ponder the statistical and physical intricacies of the process. In a preregistered study we collected $350{,}757$ coin flips to test the counterintuitive prediction from a physics model of human coin tossing developed by Diaconis, Holmes, and Montgomery (DHM; 2007). The model asserts that when people flip an ordinary coin, it tends to land on the same side it started -- DHM estimated the probability of a same-side outcome to be about 51%. Our data lend strong support to this precise prediction: the coins landed on the same side more often than not, $\text{Pr}(\text{same side}) = 0.508$, 95% credible interval (CI) [$0.506$, $0.509$], $\text{BF}_{\text{same-side bias}} = 2359$. Furthermore, the data revealed considerable between-people variation in the degree of this same-side bias. Our data also confirmed the generic prediction that when people flip an ordinary coin -- with the initial side-up randomly determined -- it is equally likely to land heads or tails: $\text{Pr}(\text{heads}) = 0.500$, 95% CI [$0.498$, $0.502$], $\text{BF}_{\text{heads-tails bias}} = 0.182$. Furthermore, this lack of heads-tails bias does not appear to vary across coins. Additional exploratory analyses revealed that the within-people same-side bias decreased as more coins were flipped, an effect that is consistent with the possibility that practice makes people flip coins in a less wobbly fashion. Our data therefore provide strong evidence that when some (but not all) people flip a fair coin, it tends to land on the same side it started. Our data provide compelling statistical support for the DHM physics model of coin tossing.

Published
2023

6. Unidimensional factor models imply weaker partial correlations than zero-order correlations

Author

van Bork, Riet, Grasman, Raoul P. P. P., and Waldorp, Lourens J.

Subjects
Mathematics - Statistics Theory
Abstract

In a unidimensional factor model it is assumed that the set of indicators that loads on this factor are conditionally independent given the latent factor. Two indicators are, however, never conditionally independent given (a set of) other indicators that load on this factor, as this would require one of the indicators that is conditioned on to correlate one with the latent factor. Although partial correlations between two indicators given the other indicators can thus never equal zero (Holland and Rosenbaum, 1986), we show in this paper that the partial correlations do need to be always weaker than the zero-order correlations. More precisely, we prove that the partial correlation between two observed variables that load on one factor given all other observed variables that load on this factor, is always closer to zero than the zero-order correlation between these two variables.

Published
2016
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9. Network analysis of multivariate data in psychological science

Author

Borsboom, Denny, Deserno, Marie K., Rhemtulla, Mijke, Epskamp, Sacha, Fried, Eiko I., McNally, Richard J., Robinaugh, Donald J., Perugini, Marco, Dalege, Jonas, Costantini, Giulio, Isvoranu, Adela-Maria, Wysocki, Anna C., van Borkulo, Claudia D., van Bork, Riet, and Waldorp, Lourens J.

Published
2021
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10. Encouraging Vaccination Behavior Through Online Social Media

Author

Langley, David J., Wijn, Remco, Epskamp, Sacha, van Bork, Riet, Spagnoletti, Paolo, Series editor, De Marco, Marco, Series editor, Pouloudi, Nancy, Series editor, Te'eni, Dov, Series editor, Vom Brocke, Jan, Series editor, Winter, Robert, Series editor, Baskerville, Richard, Series editor, D'Ascenzo, Fabrizio, editor, Magni, Massimo, editor, Lazazzara, Alessandra, editor, and Za, Stefano, editor

Published
2016
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11. Comparing Network Structures on Three Aspects: A Permutation Test.

Author

van Borkulo, Claudia D., van Bork, Riet, Boschloo, Lynn, Kossakowski, Jolanda J., Pia Tio, Schoevers, Robert A., Borsboom, Denny, and Waldorp, Lourens J.

Abstract

Network approaches to psychometric constructs, in which constructs are modeled in terms of interactions between their constituent factors, have rapidly gained popularity in psychology. Applications of such network approaches to various psychological constructs have recently moved from a descriptive stance, in which the goal is to estimate the network structure that pertains to a construct, to a more comparative stance, in which the goal is to compare network structures across populations. However, the statistical tools to do so are lacking. In this article, we present the network comparison test (NCT), which uses resampling-based permutation testing to compare network structures from two independent, cross-sectional data sets on invariance of (a) network structure, (b) edge (connection) strength, and (c) global strength. Performance of NCT is evaluated in simulations that show NCT to perform well in various circumstances for all three tests: The Type I error rate is close to the nominal significance level, and power proves sufficiently high if sample size and difference between networks are substantial. We illustrate NCT by comparing depression symptom networks of males and females. Possible extensions of NCT are discussed. The network approach, in which psychological constructs are modeled in terms of interactions between their constituent factors, have rapidly gained popularity in psychology. Applications of such network approaches to various psychological constructs have recently moved from a descriptive stance, in which the goal is to estimate the network structure, to a more comparative stance, in which the goal is to compare network structures across groups. However, the statistical tools to do so are lacking. In this article, we present the network comparison test (NCT). NCT is a statistical test that compares two network structures on three types of characteristics. Performance of NCT is evaluated by means of a simulation study. Simulated data shows that NCT performs well in various circumstances for all three tests: when the groups are simulated to be similar, the error rate (i.e., NCT indicating that they are different, while the simulated networks are similar) is adequately low, and when the groups are simulated to be different, the ability to detect a difference is sufficiently high when the difference between simulated networks and the sample size are substantial. We illustrate NCT by comparing depression symptom networks of males and females. Possible extensions of NCT are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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13. Calling Models with Causal Indicators 'Measurement Models' Implies More than They Can Deliver

Author

Rhemtulla, Mijke, van Bork, Riet, and Borsboom, Denny

Abstract

In this commentary, Mijke Rhemtulla, Riet van Bork, and Denny Borsboom write that they were delighted to see Bainter and Bollen's paper as a focus article in "Measurement." In their view, psychological researchers who use SEM rely too reflexively on reflective measurement, without sufficiently considering whether their indicators are likely to be caused by the latent construct. When causality flows from indicators to the construct, fitting a reflective model will result in model misfit, misspecification, incorrect parameter estimates, and fruitless discussion about the underlying factor structure of a questionnaire. They posit here that this is a topic that requires greater awareness.

Published
2015
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14. How to Measure Nothing

Author

Rhemtulla, Mijke, Borsboom, Denny, and van Bork, Riet

Abstract

In his focus article, "Rethinking Traditional Methods of Survey Validation" in this v15 n2 2017 issue of "Journal Measurement: Interdisciplinary Research and Perspectives," Andrew Maul writes that it is commonly believed that self-report, survey-based instruments can be used to measure a wide range of psychological attributes, such as self-control, growth mindsets, and grit. Increasingly, these instruments are being used not only for basic research but also for supporting decisions regarding educational policy and accountability. He questions the validity of the instruments and raises ideas some old and some new about the validation of self-report surveys. In this article, authors, Mijke Rhemtulla, Denny Borsboomb, and Riet van Borkb comment that while they agree with the arguments made in the second half of Maul's paper, they are not convinced that the results presented in the first half of the paper are really damning evidence against the adequacy of psychometric processes. [For "Rethinking Traditional Methods of Survey Validation," see EJ1156001.]

Published
2017
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16. Psychological Networks Amsterdam Summer School 2017

Author

Isvoranu, Adela-Maria, Epskamp, Sacha, Hoekstra, Ria, Fried, Eiko, Haslbeck, Jonas, Dalege, Jonas, van Bork, Riet, Waldorp, Lourens, and Borsboom, Denny

Abstract

From August 28 to September 1 2017 we held a summer school on network analysis of psychological datasets in Amsterdam (http://psychosystems.org/summerschool2017). Here you will find all slides and exercises (for solutions, please contact us).

Published
2022
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19. Improving Psychological Explanations

Author

van Dongen, Noah N'Djaye Nikolai, primary, van Bork, Riet, additional, Finnemann, Adam, additional, van der Maas, Han, additional, Robinaugh, Donald, additional, Haslbeck, Jonas M B, additional, de Ron, Jill, additional, and Borsboom, Denny, additional

Published
2022
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21. Network analysis of multivariate data in psychological science

Author

Borsboom, D, Deserno, M, Rhemtulla, M, Epskamp, S, Fried, E, Mcnally, R, Robinaugh, D, Perugini, M, Dalege, J, Costantini, G, Isvoranu, A, Wysocki, A, van Borkulo, C, van Bork, R, Waldorp, L, Borsboom, Denny, Deserno, Marie K., Rhemtulla, Mijke, Epskamp, Sacha, Fried, Eiko I., McNally, Richard J., Robinaugh, Donald J., Perugini, Marco, Dalege, Jonas, Costantini, Giulio, Isvoranu, Adela-Maria, Wysocki, Anna C., van Borkulo, Claudia D., van Bork, Riet, Waldorp, Lourens J., Borsboom, D, Deserno, M, Rhemtulla, M, Epskamp, S, Fried, E, Mcnally, R, Robinaugh, D, Perugini, M, Dalege, J, Costantini, G, Isvoranu, A, Wysocki, A, van Borkulo, C, van Bork, R, Waldorp, L, Borsboom, Denny, Deserno, Marie K., Rhemtulla, Mijke, Epskamp, Sacha, Fried, Eiko I., McNally, Richard J., Robinaugh, Donald J., Perugini, Marco, Dalege, Jonas, Costantini, Giulio, Isvoranu, Adela-Maria, Wysocki, Anna C., van Borkulo, Claudia D., van Bork, Riet, and Waldorp, Lourens J.

Abstract

In recent years, network analysis has been applied to identify and analyse patterns of statistical association in multivariate psychological data. In these approaches, network nodes represent variables in a data set, and edges represent pairwise conditional associations between variables in the data, while conditioning on the remaining variables. This Primer provides an anatomy of these techniques, describes the current state of the art and discusses open problems. We identify relevant data structures in which network analysis may be applied: cross-sectional data, repeated measures and intensive longitudinal data. We then discuss the estimation of network structures in each of these cases, as well as assessment techniques to evaluate network robustness and replicability. Successful applications of the technique in different research areas are highlighted. Finally, we discuss limitations and challenges for future research.

Published
2021

30. Latent Variable Models and Networks: Statistical Equivalence and Testability.

Author

van Bork, Riet, Rhemtulla, Mijke, Waldorp, Lourens J., Kruis, Joost, Rezvanifar, Shirin, and Borsboom, Denny

Subjects
*LATENT variables, *STATISTICAL models, *MATHEMATICAL equivalence
Abstract

Networks are gaining popularity as an alternative to latent variable models for representing psychological constructs. Whereas latent variable approaches introduce unobserved common causes to explain the relations among observed variables, network approaches posit direct causal relations between observed variables. While these approaches lead to radically different understandings of the psychological constructs of interest, recent articles have established mathematical equivalences that hold between network models and latent variable models. We argue that the fact that for any model from one class there is an equivalent model from the other class does not mean that both models are equally plausible accounts of the data-generating mechanism. In many cases the constraints that are meaningful in one framework translate to constraints in the equivalent model that lack a clear interpretation in the other framework. Finally, we discuss three diverging predictions for the relation between zero-order correlations and partial correlations implied by sparse network models and unidimensional factor models. We propose a test procedure that compares the likelihoods of these models in light of these diverging implications. We use an empirical example to illustrate our argument. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2021
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36. Unique and predictive relationships between components of cognitive vulnerability and symptoms of depression.

Author

Bernstein, Emily E., Kleiman, Evan M., Bork, Riet, Moriarity, Daniel P., Mac Giollabhui, Naoise, McNally, Richard J., Abramson, Lyn Y., Alloy, Lauren B., and van Bork, Riet

Subjects
COGNITIVE styles, STRUCTURAL dynamics, COGNITIVE bias, TIME-varying networks
Abstract

Background: Cognitive vulnerability theories of depression outline multiple, distinct inferential biases constitutive of cognitive vulnerability to depression. These include attributing negative events to internal, stable, and global factors, assuming that negative events will lead to further negative consequences, and inferring that negative events reflect negative characteristics about the self. Extant research has insufficiently examined these biases as distinct, limiting our understanding of how the individual cognitive vulnerability components interrelate and confer risk for depression symptoms. Thus, we conducted exploratory network analyses to examine the relationships among the five components of negative cognitive style and explore how components may differentially relate to depressive symptoms in adolescents.Methods: Participants completed measures of negative cognitive style twice over a two-year period. We estimated Graphical Gaussian Models using contemporaneous data and computed a cross-lagged panel network using temporal data from baseline and 2-year follow-up.Results: Results reveal interesting structural dynamics among facets of negative cognitive style and depressive symptoms. For example, results point to biases towards stable and future-oriented inferences as highly influential among negative cognitive style components. The temporal model revealed the internal attributions component to be heavily influenced by depressive symptoms among adolescents, whereas stable and global attributions most influenced future symptoms.Conclusions: This study presents novel approaches for investigating cognitive style and depression. From this perspective, perhaps more precise predictions can be made about how cognitive risk factors will lead to the development or worsening of psychopathology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2019
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37. Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science

Author

Anderson, Joanna E., Aarts, Alexander A., Anderson, Christopher J., Attridge, Peter R., Attwood, Angela, Axt, Jordan, Babel, Molly, Bahník, Štěpán, Baranski, Erica, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bartmess, Elizabeth, Beer, Jennifer, Bell, Raoul, Bentley, Heather, Beyan, Leah, Binion, Grace, Borsboom, Denny, Bosch, Annick, Bosco, Frank A., Bowman, Sara D., Brandt, Mark J., Braswell, Erin, Brohmer, Hilmar, Brown, Benjamin T., Brown, Kristina, Brüning, Jovita, Calhoun-Sauls, Ann, Callahan, Shannon P., Chagnon, Elizabeth, Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R., Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D., Cillessen, Linda, Clay, Russ, Cleary, Hayley, Cloud, Mark D., Conn, Michael, Cohoon, Johanna, Columbus, Simon, Cordes, Andreas, Costantini, Giulio, Alvarez, Leslie D Cramblet, Cremata, Ed, Crusius, Jan, DeCoster, Jamie, DeGaetano, Michelle A., Penna, Nicolás Delia, Den Bezemer, Bobby, Deserno, Marie K., Devitt, Olivia, Dewitte, Laura, Dobolyi, David G., Dodson, Geneva T., Donnellan, M. Brent, Donohue, Ryan, Dore, Rebecca A., Dorrough, Angela, Dreber, Anna, Dugas, Michelle, Dunn, Elizabeth W., Easey, Kayleigh, Eboigbe, Sylvia, Eggleston, Casey, Embley, Jo, Epskamp, Sacha, Errington, Timothy M., Estel, Vivien, Farach, Frank J., Feather, Jenelle, Fedor, Anna, Fernández-Castilla, Belén, Fiedler, Susann, Field, James G., Fitneva, Stanka A., Flagan, Taru, Forest, Amanda L., Forsell, Eskil, Foster, Joshua D., Frank, Michael C., Frazier, Rebecca S., Fuchs, Heather, Gable, Philip, Galak, Jeff, Galliani, Elisa Maria, Gampa, Anup, Garcia, Sara, Gazarian, Douglas, Gilbert, Elizabeth, Giner-Sorolla, Roger, Glöckner, Andreas, Goellner, Lars, Goh, Jin X., Goldberg, Rebecca, Goodbourn, Patrick T., Gordon-McKeon, Shauna, Gorges, Bryan, Gorges, Jessie, Goss, Justin, Graham, Jesse, Grange, James A., Gray, Jeremy, Hartgerink, Chris, Hartshorne, Joshua, Hasselman, Fred, Hayes, Timothy, Heikensten, Emma, Henninger, Felix, Hodsoll, John, Holubar, Taylor, Hoogendoorn, Gea, Humphries, Denise J., Hung, Cathy O Y, Immelman, Nathali, Irsik, Vanessa C., Jahn, Georg, Jäkel, Frank, Jekel, Marc, Johannesson, Magnus, Johnson, Larissa G., Johnson, David J., Johnson, Kate M., Johnston, William J., Jonas, Kai, Joy-Gaba, Jennifer A., Kappes, Heather Barry, Kelso, Kim, Kidwell, Mallory C., Kim, Seung Kyung, Kirkhart, Matthew, Kleinberg, Bennett, Knežević, Goran, Kolorz, Franziska Maria, Kossakowski, Jolanda J., Krause, Robert Wilhelm, Krijnen, Job, Kuhlmann, Tim, Kunkels, Yoram K., Kyc, Megan M., Lai, Calvin K., Laique, Aamir, Lakens, Daniël, Lane, Kristin A., Lassetter, Bethany, Lazarević, Ljiljana B., Le Bel, Etienne P., Lee, Key Jung, Lee, Minha, Lemm, Kristi, Levitan, Carmel A., Lewis, Melissa, Lin, Lin, Lin, Stephanie, Lippold, Matthias, Loureiro, Darren, Luteijn, Ilse, MacKinnon, Sean, Mainard, Heather N., Marigold, Denise C., Martin, Daniel P., Martinez, Tylar, Masicampo, E. J., Matacotta, Josh, Mathur, Maya, May, Michael, Mechin, Nicole, Mehta, Pranjal, Meixner, Johannes, Melinger, Alissa, Miller, Jeremy K., Miller, Mallorie, Moore, Katherine, Möschl, Marcus, Motyl, Matt, Müller, Stephanie M., Munafo, Marcus, Neijenhuijs, Koen I., Nervi, Taylor, Nicolas, Gandalf, Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A., Nuijten, Michèle B., Olsson, Catherine, Osborne, Colleen, Ostkamp, Lutz, Pavel, Misha, Penton-Voak, Ian S., Perna, Olivia, Pernet, Cyril, Perugini, Marco, Pipitone, R. Nathan, Pitts, Michael, Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M., Rahal, Rima Maria, Ratliff, Kate A., Reinhard, David, Renkewitz, Frank, Ricker, Ashley A., Rigney, Anastasia, Rivers, Andrew M., Roebke, Mark, Rutchick, Abraham M., Ryan, Robert S., Sahin, Onur, Saide, Anondah, Sandstrom, Gillian M., Santos, David, Saxe, Rebecca, Schlegelmilch, René, Schmidt, Kathleen, Scholz, Sabine, Seibel, Larissa, Selterman, Dylan Faulkner, Shaki, Samuel, Simpson, William B., Sinclair, H. Colleen, Skorinko, Jeanine L M, Slowik, Agnieszka, Snyder, Joel S., Soderberg, Courtney, Sonnleitner, Carina, Spencer, Nick, Spies, Jeffrey R., Steegen, Sara, Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B., Talhelm, Thomas, Tapia, Megan, Te Dorsthorst, Anniek, Thomae, Manuela, Thomas, Sarah L., Tio, Pia, Traets, Frits, Tsang, Steve, Tuerlinckx, Francis, Turchan, Paul, Valášek, Milan, Van't Veer, Anna E., Van Aert, Robbie, Van Assen, Marcel, Van Bork, Riet, Van De Ven, Mathijs, Van Den Bergh, Don, Van Der Hulst, Marije, Van Dooren, Roel, Van Doorn, Johnny, Van Renswoude, Daan R., Van Rijn, Hedderik, Vanpaemel, Wolf, Echeverría, Alejandro Vásquez, Vazquez, Melissa, Velez, Natalia, Vermue, Marieke, Verschoor, Mark, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, Vuu, Gina, Wagenmakers, Eric Jan, Weerdmeester, Joanneke, Welsh, Ashlee, Westgate, Erin C., Wissink, Joeri, Wood, Michael, Woods, Andy, Wright, Emily, Wu, Sining, Zeelenberg, Marcel, Zuni, Kellylynn, Anderson, Joanna E., Aarts, Alexander A., Anderson, Christopher J., Attridge, Peter R., Attwood, Angela, Axt, Jordan, Babel, Molly, Bahník, Štěpán, Baranski, Erica, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bartmess, Elizabeth, Beer, Jennifer, Bell, Raoul, Bentley, Heather, Beyan, Leah, Binion, Grace, Borsboom, Denny, Bosch, Annick, Bosco, Frank A., Bowman, Sara D., Brandt, Mark J., Braswell, Erin, Brohmer, Hilmar, Brown, Benjamin T., Brown, Kristina, Brüning, Jovita, Calhoun-Sauls, Ann, Callahan, Shannon P., Chagnon, Elizabeth, Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R., Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D., Cillessen, Linda, Clay, Russ, Cleary, Hayley, Cloud, Mark D., Conn, Michael, Cohoon, Johanna, Columbus, Simon, Cordes, Andreas, Costantini, Giulio, Alvarez, Leslie D Cramblet, Cremata, Ed, Crusius, Jan, DeCoster, Jamie, DeGaetano, Michelle A., Penna, Nicolás Delia, Den Bezemer, Bobby, Deserno, Marie K., Devitt, Olivia, Dewitte, Laura, Dobolyi, David G., Dodson, Geneva T., Donnellan, M. Brent, Donohue, Ryan, Dore, Rebecca A., Dorrough, Angela, Dreber, Anna, Dugas, Michelle, Dunn, Elizabeth W., Easey, Kayleigh, Eboigbe, Sylvia, Eggleston, Casey, Embley, Jo, Epskamp, Sacha, Errington, Timothy M., Estel, Vivien, Farach, Frank J., Feather, Jenelle, Fedor, Anna, Fernández-Castilla, Belén, Fiedler, Susann, Field, James G., Fitneva, Stanka A., Flagan, Taru, Forest, Amanda L., Forsell, Eskil, Foster, Joshua D., Frank, Michael C., Frazier, Rebecca S., Fuchs, Heather, Gable, Philip, Galak, Jeff, Galliani, Elisa Maria, Gampa, Anup, Garcia, Sara, Gazarian, Douglas, Gilbert, Elizabeth, Giner-Sorolla, Roger, Glöckner, Andreas, Goellner, Lars, Goh, Jin X., Goldberg, Rebecca, Goodbourn, Patrick T., Gordon-McKeon, Shauna, Gorges, Bryan, Gorges, Jessie, Goss, Justin, Graham, Jesse, Grange, James A., Gray, Jeremy, Hartgerink, Chris, Hartshorne, Joshua, Hasselman, Fred, Hayes, Timothy, Heikensten, Emma, Henninger, Felix, Hodsoll, John, Holubar, Taylor, Hoogendoorn, Gea, Humphries, Denise J., Hung, Cathy O Y, Immelman, Nathali, Irsik, Vanessa C., Jahn, Georg, Jäkel, Frank, Jekel, Marc, Johannesson, Magnus, Johnson, Larissa G., Johnson, David J., Johnson, Kate M., Johnston, William J., Jonas, Kai, Joy-Gaba, Jennifer A., Kappes, Heather Barry, Kelso, Kim, Kidwell, Mallory C., Kim, Seung Kyung, Kirkhart, Matthew, Kleinberg, Bennett, Knežević, Goran, Kolorz, Franziska Maria, Kossakowski, Jolanda J., Krause, Robert Wilhelm, Krijnen, Job, Kuhlmann, Tim, Kunkels, Yoram K., Kyc, Megan M., Lai, Calvin K., Laique, Aamir, Lakens, Daniël, Lane, Kristin A., Lassetter, Bethany, Lazarević, Ljiljana B., Le Bel, Etienne P., Lee, Key Jung, Lee, Minha, Lemm, Kristi, Levitan, Carmel A., Lewis, Melissa, Lin, Lin, Lin, Stephanie, Lippold, Matthias, Loureiro, Darren, Luteijn, Ilse, MacKinnon, Sean, Mainard, Heather N., Marigold, Denise C., Martin, Daniel P., Martinez, Tylar, Masicampo, E. J., Matacotta, Josh, Mathur, Maya, May, Michael, Mechin, Nicole, Mehta, Pranjal, Meixner, Johannes, Melinger, Alissa, Miller, Jeremy K., Miller, Mallorie, Moore, Katherine, Möschl, Marcus, Motyl, Matt, Müller, Stephanie M., Munafo, Marcus, Neijenhuijs, Koen I., Nervi, Taylor, Nicolas, Gandalf, Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A., Nuijten, Michèle B., Olsson, Catherine, Osborne, Colleen, Ostkamp, Lutz, Pavel, Misha, Penton-Voak, Ian S., Perna, Olivia, Pernet, Cyril, Perugini, Marco, Pipitone, R. Nathan, Pitts, Michael, Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M., Rahal, Rima Maria, Ratliff, Kate A., Reinhard, David, Renkewitz, Frank, Ricker, Ashley A., Rigney, Anastasia, Rivers, Andrew M., Roebke, Mark, Rutchick, Abraham M., Ryan, Robert S., Sahin, Onur, Saide, Anondah, Sandstrom, Gillian M., Santos, David, Saxe, Rebecca, Schlegelmilch, René, Schmidt, Kathleen, Scholz, Sabine, Seibel, Larissa, Selterman, Dylan Faulkner, Shaki, Samuel, Simpson, William B., Sinclair, H. Colleen, Skorinko, Jeanine L M, Slowik, Agnieszka, Snyder, Joel S., Soderberg, Courtney, Sonnleitner, Carina, Spencer, Nick, Spies, Jeffrey R., Steegen, Sara, Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B., Talhelm, Thomas, Tapia, Megan, Te Dorsthorst, Anniek, Thomae, Manuela, Thomas, Sarah L., Tio, Pia, Traets, Frits, Tsang, Steve, Tuerlinckx, Francis, Turchan, Paul, Valášek, Milan, Van't Veer, Anna E., Van Aert, Robbie, Van Assen, Marcel, Van Bork, Riet, Van De Ven, Mathijs, Van Den Bergh, Don, Van Der Hulst, Marije, Van Dooren, Roel, Van Doorn, Johnny, Van Renswoude, Daan R., Van Rijn, Hedderik, Vanpaemel, Wolf, Echeverría, Alejandro Vásquez, Vazquez, Melissa, Velez, Natalia, Vermue, Marieke, Verschoor, Mark, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, Vuu, Gina, Wagenmakers, Eric Jan, Weerdmeester, Joanneke, Welsh, Ashlee, Westgate, Erin C., Wissink, Joeri, Wood, Michael, Woods, Andy, Wright, Emily, Wu, Sining, Zeelenberg, Marcel, and Zuni, Kellylynn

Abstract

Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.

Published
2015

38. Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science

Author

Aarts, Alexander A., Anderson, Joanna E., Anderson, Christopher J., Attridge, Peter R., Attwood, Angela, Axt, Jordan, Babel, Molly, Bahnik, Stepan, Baranski, Erica, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bartmess, Elizabeth, Beer, Jennifer, Bell, Raoul, Bentley, Heather, Beyan, Leah, Binion, Grace, Borsboom, Denny, Bosch, Annick, Bosco, Frank A., Bowman, Sara D., Brandt, Mark J., Braswell, Erin, Brohmer, Hilmar, Brown, Benjamin T., Brown, Kristina, Bruening, Jovita, Calhoun-Sauls, Ann, Callahan, Shannon P., Chagnon, Elizabeth, Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R., Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D., Cillessen, Linda, Clay, Russ, Cleary, Hayley, Cloud, Mark D., Cohn, Michael, Cohoon, Johanna, Columbus, Simon, Cordes, Andreas, Costantini, Giulio, Alvarez, Leslie D. Cramblet, Cremata, Ed, Crusius, Jan, DeCoster, Jamie, DeGaetano, Michelle A., Della Penna, Nicolas, den Bezemer, Bobby, Deserno, Marie K., Devitt, Olivia, Dewitte, Laura, Dobolyi, David G., Dodson, Geneva T., Donnellan, M. Brent, Donohue, Ryan, Dore, Rebecca A., Dorrough, Angela, Dreber, Anna, Dugas, Michelle, Dunn, Elizabeth W., Easey, Kayleigh, Eboigbe, Sylvia, Eggleston, Casey, Embley, Jo, Epskamp, Sacha, Errington, Timothy M., Estel, Vivien, Farach, Frank J., Feather, Jenelle, Fedor, Anna, Fernandez-Castilla, Belen, Fiedler, Susann, Field, James G., Fitneva, Stanka A., Flagan, Taru, Forest, Amanda L., Forsell, Eskil, Foster, Joshua D., Frank, Michael C., Frazier, Rebecca S., Fuchs, Heather, Gable, Philip, Galak, Jeff, Galliani, Elisa Maria, Gampa, Anup, Garcia, Sara, Gazarian, Douglas, Gilbert, Elizabeth, Giner-Sorolla, Roger, Gloeckner, Andreas, Goellner, Lars, Goh, Jin X., Goldberg, Rebecca, Goodbourn, Patrick T., Gordon-McKeon, Shauna, Gorges, Bryan, Gorges, Jessie, Goss, Justin, Graham, Jesse, Grange, James A., Gray, Jeremy, Hartgerink, Chris, Hartshorne, Joshua, Hasselman, Fred, Hayes, Timothy, Heikensten, Emma, Henninger, Felix, Hodsoll, John, Holubar, Taylor, Hoogendoorn, Gea, Humphries, Denise J., Hung, Cathy O. -Y., Immelman, Nathali, Irsik, Vanessa C., Jahn, Georg, Jaekel, Frank, Jekel, Marc, Johannesson, Magnus, Johnson, Larissa G., Johnson, David J., Johnson, Kate M., Johnston, William J., Jonas, Kai, Joy-Gaba, Jennifer, Kappes, Heather Barry, Kelso, Kim, Kidwell, Mallory C., Kim, Seung Kyung, Kirkhart, Matthew, Kleinberg, Bennett, Knežević, Goran, Kolorz, Franziska Maria, Kossakowski, Jolanda J., Krause, Robert Wilhelm, Krijnen, Job, Kuhlmann, Tim, Kunkels, Yoram K., Kyc, Megan M., Lai, Calvin K., Laique, Aamir, Lakens, Daniel, Lane, Kristin A., Lassetter, Bethany, Lazarević, Ljiljana, LeBel, Etienne P., Lee, Key Jung, Lee, Minha, Lemm, Kristi, Levitan, Carmel A., Lewis, Melissa, Lin, Lin, Lin, Stephanie, Lippold, Matthias, Loureiro, Darren, Luteijn, Ilse, Mackinnon, Sean, Mainard, Heather N., Marigold, Denise C., Martin, Daniel P., Martinez, Tylar, Masicampo, E. J., Matacotta, Josh, Mathur, Maya, May, Michael, Mechin, Nicole, Mehta, Pranjal, Meixner, Johannes, Melinger, Alissa, Miller, Jeremy K., Miller, Mallorie, Moore, Katherine, Moeschl, Marcus, Motyl, Matt, Mueller, Stephanie M., Munafo, Marcus, Neijenhuijs, Koen I., Nervi, Taylor, Gandalf, Nicolas, Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A., Nuijten, Michele B., Olsson, Catherine, Osborne, Colleen, Ostkamp, Lutz, Pavel, Misha, Penton-Voak, Ian S., Perna, Olivia, Pernet, Cyril, Perugini, Marco, Pipitone, R. Nathan, Pitts, Michael, Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M., Rahal, Rima-Maria, Ratliff, Kate A., Reinhard, David, Renkewitz, Frank, Ricker, Ashley A., Rigney, Anastasia, Rivers, Andrew M., Roebke, Mark, Rutchick, Abraham M., Ryan, Robert S., Sahin, Onur, Saide, Anondah, Sandstrom, Gillian M., Santos, David, Saxe, Rebecca, Schlegelmilch, Rene, Schmidt, Kathleen, Scholz, Sabine, Seibel, Larissa, Selterman, Dylan Faulkner, Shaki, Samuel, Simpson, William B., Sinclair, H. Colleen, Skorinko, Jeanine L. M., Slowik, Agnieszka, Snyder, Joel S., Soderberg, Courtney, Sonnleitner, Carina, Spencer, Nick, Spies, Jeffrey R., Steegen, Sara, Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B., Talhelm, Thomas, Tapia, Megan, te Dorsthorst, Anniek, Thomae, Manuela, Thomas, Sarah L., Tio, Pia, Traets, Frits, Tsang, Steve, Tuerlinckx, Francis, Turchan, Paul, Valasek, Milan, van 't Veer, Anna E., Van Aert, Robbie, van Assen, Marcel, van Bork, Riet, van de Ven, Mathijs, van den Bergh, Don, van der Hulst, Marije, van Dooren, Roel, van Doorn, Johnny, van Renswoude, Daan R., van Rijn, Hedderik, Vanpaemel, Wolf, Echeverria, Alejandro Vasquez, Vazquez, Melissa, Velez, Natalia, Vermue, Marieke, Verschoor, Mark, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, Vuu, Gina, Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan, Weerdmeester, Joanneke, Welsh, Ashlee, Westgate, Erin C., Wissink, Joeri, Wood, Michael, Woods, Andy, Wright, Emily, Wu, Sining, Zeelenberg, Marcel, Zuni, Kellylynn, Aarts, Alexander A., Anderson, Joanna E., Anderson, Christopher J., Attridge, Peter R., Attwood, Angela, Axt, Jordan, Babel, Molly, Bahnik, Stepan, Baranski, Erica, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bartmess, Elizabeth, Beer, Jennifer, Bell, Raoul, Bentley, Heather, Beyan, Leah, Binion, Grace, Borsboom, Denny, Bosch, Annick, Bosco, Frank A., Bowman, Sara D., Brandt, Mark J., Braswell, Erin, Brohmer, Hilmar, Brown, Benjamin T., Brown, Kristina, Bruening, Jovita, Calhoun-Sauls, Ann, Callahan, Shannon P., Chagnon, Elizabeth, Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R., Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D., Cillessen, Linda, Clay, Russ, Cleary, Hayley, Cloud, Mark D., Cohn, Michael, Cohoon, Johanna, Columbus, Simon, Cordes, Andreas, Costantini, Giulio, Alvarez, Leslie D. Cramblet, Cremata, Ed, Crusius, Jan, DeCoster, Jamie, DeGaetano, Michelle A., Della Penna, Nicolas, den Bezemer, Bobby, Deserno, Marie K., Devitt, Olivia, Dewitte, Laura, Dobolyi, David G., Dodson, Geneva T., Donnellan, M. Brent, Donohue, Ryan, Dore, Rebecca A., Dorrough, Angela, Dreber, Anna, Dugas, Michelle, Dunn, Elizabeth W., Easey, Kayleigh, Eboigbe, Sylvia, Eggleston, Casey, Embley, Jo, Epskamp, Sacha, Errington, Timothy M., Estel, Vivien, Farach, Frank J., Feather, Jenelle, Fedor, Anna, Fernandez-Castilla, Belen, Fiedler, Susann, Field, James G., Fitneva, Stanka A., Flagan, Taru, Forest, Amanda L., Forsell, Eskil, Foster, Joshua D., Frank, Michael C., Frazier, Rebecca S., Fuchs, Heather, Gable, Philip, Galak, Jeff, Galliani, Elisa Maria, Gampa, Anup, Garcia, Sara, Gazarian, Douglas, Gilbert, Elizabeth, Giner-Sorolla, Roger, Gloeckner, Andreas, Goellner, Lars, Goh, Jin X., Goldberg, Rebecca, Goodbourn, Patrick T., Gordon-McKeon, Shauna, Gorges, Bryan, Gorges, Jessie, Goss, Justin, Graham, Jesse, Grange, James A., Gray, Jeremy, Hartgerink, Chris, Hartshorne, Joshua, Hasselman, Fred, Hayes, Timothy, Heikensten, Emma, Henninger, Felix, Hodsoll, John, Holubar, Taylor, Hoogendoorn, Gea, Humphries, Denise J., Hung, Cathy O. -Y., Immelman, Nathali, Irsik, Vanessa C., Jahn, Georg, Jaekel, Frank, Jekel, Marc, Johannesson, Magnus, Johnson, Larissa G., Johnson, David J., Johnson, Kate M., Johnston, William J., Jonas, Kai, Joy-Gaba, Jennifer, Kappes, Heather Barry, Kelso, Kim, Kidwell, Mallory C., Kim, Seung Kyung, Kirkhart, Matthew, Kleinberg, Bennett, Knežević, Goran, Kolorz, Franziska Maria, Kossakowski, Jolanda J., Krause, Robert Wilhelm, Krijnen, Job, Kuhlmann, Tim, Kunkels, Yoram K., Kyc, Megan M., Lai, Calvin K., Laique, Aamir, Lakens, Daniel, Lane, Kristin A., Lassetter, Bethany, Lazarević, Ljiljana, LeBel, Etienne P., Lee, Key Jung, Lee, Minha, Lemm, Kristi, Levitan, Carmel A., Lewis, Melissa, Lin, Lin, Lin, Stephanie, Lippold, Matthias, Loureiro, Darren, Luteijn, Ilse, Mackinnon, Sean, Mainard, Heather N., Marigold, Denise C., Martin, Daniel P., Martinez, Tylar, Masicampo, E. J., Matacotta, Josh, Mathur, Maya, May, Michael, Mechin, Nicole, Mehta, Pranjal, Meixner, Johannes, Melinger, Alissa, Miller, Jeremy K., Miller, Mallorie, Moore, Katherine, Moeschl, Marcus, Motyl, Matt, Mueller, Stephanie M., Munafo, Marcus, Neijenhuijs, Koen I., Nervi, Taylor, Gandalf, Nicolas, Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A., Nuijten, Michele B., Olsson, Catherine, Osborne, Colleen, Ostkamp, Lutz, Pavel, Misha, Penton-Voak, Ian S., Perna, Olivia, Pernet, Cyril, Perugini, Marco, Pipitone, R. Nathan, Pitts, Michael, Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M., Rahal, Rima-Maria, Ratliff, Kate A., Reinhard, David, Renkewitz, Frank, Ricker, Ashley A., Rigney, Anastasia, Rivers, Andrew M., Roebke, Mark, Rutchick, Abraham M., Ryan, Robert S., Sahin, Onur, Saide, Anondah, Sandstrom, Gillian M., Santos, David, Saxe, Rebecca, Schlegelmilch, Rene, Schmidt, Kathleen, Scholz, Sabine, Seibel, Larissa, Selterman, Dylan Faulkner, Shaki, Samuel, Simpson, William B., Sinclair, H. Colleen, Skorinko, Jeanine L. M., Slowik, Agnieszka, Snyder, Joel S., Soderberg, Courtney, Sonnleitner, Carina, Spencer, Nick, Spies, Jeffrey R., Steegen, Sara, Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B., Talhelm, Thomas, Tapia, Megan, te Dorsthorst, Anniek, Thomae, Manuela, Thomas, Sarah L., Tio, Pia, Traets, Frits, Tsang, Steve, Tuerlinckx, Francis, Turchan, Paul, Valasek, Milan, van 't Veer, Anna E., Van Aert, Robbie, van Assen, Marcel, van Bork, Riet, van de Ven, Mathijs, van den Bergh, Don, van der Hulst, Marije, van Dooren, Roel, van Doorn, Johnny, van Renswoude, Daan R., van Rijn, Hedderik, Vanpaemel, Wolf, Echeverria, Alejandro Vasquez, Vazquez, Melissa, Velez, Natalia, Vermue, Marieke, Verschoor, Mark, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, Vuu, Gina, Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan, Weerdmeester, Joanneke, Welsh, Ashlee, Westgate, Erin C., Wissink, Joeri, Wood, Michael, Woods, Andy, Wright, Emily, Wu, Sining, Zeelenberg, Marcel, and Zuni, Kellylynn

Abstract

Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.

Published
2015

39. Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science

Author

Social Networks, Solidarity and Inequality, Anderson, Joanna E., Aarts, Alexander A., Anderson, Christopher J., Attridge, Peter R., Attwood, Angela, Axt, Jordan, Babel, Molly, Bahník, Štěpán, Baranski, Erica, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bartmess, Elizabeth, Beer, Jennifer, Bell, Raoul, Bentley, Heather, Beyan, Leah, Binion, Grace, Borsboom, Denny, Bosch, Annick, Bosco, Frank A., Bowman, Sara D., Brandt, Mark J., Braswell, Erin, Brohmer, Hilmar, Brown, Benjamin T., Brown, Kristina, Brüning, Jovita, Calhoun-Sauls, Ann, Callahan, Shannon P., Chagnon, Elizabeth, Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R., Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D., Cillessen, Linda, Clay, Russ, Cleary, Hayley, Cloud, Mark D., Conn, Michael, Cohoon, Johanna, Columbus, Simon, Cordes, Andreas, Costantini, Giulio, Alvarez, Leslie D Cramblet, Cremata, Ed, Crusius, Jan, DeCoster, Jamie, DeGaetano, Michelle A., Penna, Nicolás Delia, Den Bezemer, Bobby, Deserno, Marie K., Devitt, Olivia, Dewitte, Laura, Dobolyi, David G., Dodson, Geneva T., Donnellan, M. Brent, Donohue, Ryan, Dore, Rebecca A., Dorrough, Angela, Dreber, Anna, Dugas, Michelle, Dunn, Elizabeth W., Easey, Kayleigh, Eboigbe, Sylvia, Eggleston, Casey, Embley, Jo, Epskamp, Sacha, Errington, Timothy M., Estel, Vivien, Farach, Frank J., Feather, Jenelle, Fedor, Anna, Fernández-Castilla, Belén, Fiedler, Susann, Field, James G., Fitneva, Stanka A., Flagan, Taru, Forest, Amanda L., Forsell, Eskil, Foster, Joshua D., Frank, Michael C., Frazier, Rebecca S., Fuchs, Heather, Gable, Philip, Galak, Jeff, Galliani, Elisa Maria, Gampa, Anup, Garcia, Sara, Gazarian, Douglas, Gilbert, Elizabeth, Giner-Sorolla, Roger, Glöckner, Andreas, Goellner, Lars, Goh, Jin X., Goldberg, Rebecca, Goodbourn, Patrick T., Gordon-McKeon, Shauna, Gorges, Bryan, Gorges, Jessie, Goss, Justin, Graham, Jesse, Grange, James A., Gray, Jeremy, Hartgerink, Chris, Hartshorne, Joshua, Hasselman, Fred, Hayes, Timothy, Heikensten, Emma, Henninger, Felix, Hodsoll, John, Holubar, Taylor, Hoogendoorn, Gea, Humphries, Denise J., Hung, Cathy O Y, Immelman, Nathali, Irsik, Vanessa C., Jahn, Georg, Jäkel, Frank, Jekel, Marc, Johannesson, Magnus, Johnson, Larissa G., Johnson, David J., Johnson, Kate M., Johnston, William J., Jonas, Kai, Joy-Gaba, Jennifer A., Kappes, Heather Barry, Kelso, Kim, Kidwell, Mallory C., Kim, Seung Kyung, Kirkhart, Matthew, Kleinberg, Bennett, Knežević, Goran, Kolorz, Franziska Maria, Kossakowski, Jolanda J., Krause, Robert Wilhelm, Krijnen, Job, Kuhlmann, Tim, Kunkels, Yoram K., Kyc, Megan M., Lai, Calvin K., Laique, Aamir, Lakens, Daniël, Lane, Kristin A., Lassetter, Bethany, Lazarević, Ljiljana B., Le Bel, Etienne P., Lee, Key Jung, Lee, Minha, Lemm, Kristi, Levitan, Carmel A., Lewis, Melissa, Lin, Lin, Lin, Stephanie, Lippold, Matthias, Loureiro, Darren, Luteijn, Ilse, MacKinnon, Sean, Mainard, Heather N., Marigold, Denise C., Martin, Daniel P., Martinez, Tylar, Masicampo, E. J., Matacotta, Josh, Mathur, Maya, May, Michael, Mechin, Nicole, Mehta, Pranjal, Meixner, Johannes, Melinger, Alissa, Miller, Jeremy K., Miller, Mallorie, Moore, Katherine, Möschl, Marcus, Motyl, Matt, Müller, Stephanie M., Munafo, Marcus, Neijenhuijs, Koen I., Nervi, Taylor, Nicolas, Gandalf, Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A., Nuijten, Michèle B., Olsson, Catherine, Osborne, Colleen, Ostkamp, Lutz, Pavel, Misha, Penton-Voak, Ian S., Perna, Olivia, Pernet, Cyril, Perugini, Marco, Pipitone, R. Nathan, Pitts, Michael, Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M., Rahal, Rima Maria, Ratliff, Kate A., Reinhard, David, Renkewitz, Frank, Ricker, Ashley A., Rigney, Anastasia, Rivers, Andrew M., Roebke, Mark, Rutchick, Abraham M., Ryan, Robert S., Sahin, Onur, Saide, Anondah, Sandstrom, Gillian M., Santos, David, Saxe, Rebecca, Schlegelmilch, René, Schmidt, Kathleen, Scholz, Sabine, Seibel, Larissa, Selterman, Dylan Faulkner, Shaki, Samuel, Simpson, William B., Sinclair, H. Colleen, Skorinko, Jeanine L M, Slowik, Agnieszka, Snyder, Joel S., Soderberg, Courtney, Sonnleitner, Carina, Spencer, Nick, Spies, Jeffrey R., Steegen, Sara, Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B., Talhelm, Thomas, Tapia, Megan, Te Dorsthorst, Anniek, Thomae, Manuela, Thomas, Sarah L., Tio, Pia, Traets, Frits, Tsang, Steve, Tuerlinckx, Francis, Turchan, Paul, Valášek, Milan, Van't Veer, Anna E., Van Aert, Robbie, Van Assen, Marcel, Van Bork, Riet, Van De Ven, Mathijs, Van Den Bergh, Don, Van Der Hulst, Marije, Van Dooren, Roel, Van Doorn, Johnny, Van Renswoude, Daan R., Van Rijn, Hedderik, Vanpaemel, Wolf, Echeverría, Alejandro Vásquez, Vazquez, Melissa, Velez, Natalia, Vermue, Marieke, Verschoor, Mark, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, Vuu, Gina, Wagenmakers, Eric Jan, Weerdmeester, Joanneke, Welsh, Ashlee, Westgate, Erin C., Wissink, Joeri, Wood, Michael, Woods, Andy, Wright, Emily, Wu, Sining, Zeelenberg, Marcel, Zuni, Kellylynn, Social Networks, Solidarity and Inequality, Anderson, Joanna E., Aarts, Alexander A., Anderson, Christopher J., Attridge, Peter R., Attwood, Angela, Axt, Jordan, Babel, Molly, Bahník, Štěpán, Baranski, Erica, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bartmess, Elizabeth, Beer, Jennifer, Bell, Raoul, Bentley, Heather, Beyan, Leah, Binion, Grace, Borsboom, Denny, Bosch, Annick, Bosco, Frank A., Bowman, Sara D., Brandt, Mark J., Braswell, Erin, Brohmer, Hilmar, Brown, Benjamin T., Brown, Kristina, Brüning, Jovita, Calhoun-Sauls, Ann, Callahan, Shannon P., Chagnon, Elizabeth, Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R., Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D., Cillessen, Linda, Clay, Russ, Cleary, Hayley, Cloud, Mark D., Conn, Michael, Cohoon, Johanna, Columbus, Simon, Cordes, Andreas, Costantini, Giulio, Alvarez, Leslie D Cramblet, Cremata, Ed, Crusius, Jan, DeCoster, Jamie, DeGaetano, Michelle A., Penna, Nicolás Delia, Den Bezemer, Bobby, Deserno, Marie K., Devitt, Olivia, Dewitte, Laura, Dobolyi, David G., Dodson, Geneva T., Donnellan, M. Brent, Donohue, Ryan, Dore, Rebecca A., Dorrough, Angela, Dreber, Anna, Dugas, Michelle, Dunn, Elizabeth W., Easey, Kayleigh, Eboigbe, Sylvia, Eggleston, Casey, Embley, Jo, Epskamp, Sacha, Errington, Timothy M., Estel, Vivien, Farach, Frank J., Feather, Jenelle, Fedor, Anna, Fernández-Castilla, Belén, Fiedler, Susann, Field, James G., Fitneva, Stanka A., Flagan, Taru, Forest, Amanda L., Forsell, Eskil, Foster, Joshua D., Frank, Michael C., Frazier, Rebecca S., Fuchs, Heather, Gable, Philip, Galak, Jeff, Galliani, Elisa Maria, Gampa, Anup, Garcia, Sara, Gazarian, Douglas, Gilbert, Elizabeth, Giner-Sorolla, Roger, Glöckner, Andreas, Goellner, Lars, Goh, Jin X., Goldberg, Rebecca, Goodbourn, Patrick T., Gordon-McKeon, Shauna, Gorges, Bryan, Gorges, Jessie, Goss, Justin, Graham, Jesse, Grange, James A., Gray, Jeremy, Hartgerink, Chris, Hartshorne, Joshua, Hasselman, Fred, Hayes, Timothy, Heikensten, Emma, Henninger, Felix, Hodsoll, John, Holubar, Taylor, Hoogendoorn, Gea, Humphries, Denise J., Hung, Cathy O Y, Immelman, Nathali, Irsik, Vanessa C., Jahn, Georg, Jäkel, Frank, Jekel, Marc, Johannesson, Magnus, Johnson, Larissa G., Johnson, David J., Johnson, Kate M., Johnston, William J., Jonas, Kai, Joy-Gaba, Jennifer A., Kappes, Heather Barry, Kelso, Kim, Kidwell, Mallory C., Kim, Seung Kyung, Kirkhart, Matthew, Kleinberg, Bennett, Knežević, Goran, Kolorz, Franziska Maria, Kossakowski, Jolanda J., Krause, Robert Wilhelm, Krijnen, Job, Kuhlmann, Tim, Kunkels, Yoram K., Kyc, Megan M., Lai, Calvin K., Laique, Aamir, Lakens, Daniël, Lane, Kristin A., Lassetter, Bethany, Lazarević, Ljiljana B., Le Bel, Etienne P., Lee, Key Jung, Lee, Minha, Lemm, Kristi, Levitan, Carmel A., Lewis, Melissa, Lin, Lin, Lin, Stephanie, Lippold, Matthias, Loureiro, Darren, Luteijn, Ilse, MacKinnon, Sean, Mainard, Heather N., Marigold, Denise C., Martin, Daniel P., Martinez, Tylar, Masicampo, E. J., Matacotta, Josh, Mathur, Maya, May, Michael, Mechin, Nicole, Mehta, Pranjal, Meixner, Johannes, Melinger, Alissa, Miller, Jeremy K., Miller, Mallorie, Moore, Katherine, Möschl, Marcus, Motyl, Matt, Müller, Stephanie M., Munafo, Marcus, Neijenhuijs, Koen I., Nervi, Taylor, Nicolas, Gandalf, Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A., Nuijten, Michèle B., Olsson, Catherine, Osborne, Colleen, Ostkamp, Lutz, Pavel, Misha, Penton-Voak, Ian S., Perna, Olivia, Pernet, Cyril, Perugini, Marco, Pipitone, R. Nathan, Pitts, Michael, Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M., Rahal, Rima Maria, Ratliff, Kate A., Reinhard, David, Renkewitz, Frank, Ricker, Ashley A., Rigney, Anastasia, Rivers, Andrew M., Roebke, Mark, Rutchick, Abraham M., Ryan, Robert S., Sahin, Onur, Saide, Anondah, Sandstrom, Gillian M., Santos, David, Saxe, Rebecca, Schlegelmilch, René, Schmidt, Kathleen, Scholz, Sabine, Seibel, Larissa, Selterman, Dylan Faulkner, Shaki, Samuel, Simpson, William B., Sinclair, H. Colleen, Skorinko, Jeanine L M, Slowik, Agnieszka, Snyder, Joel S., Soderberg, Courtney, Sonnleitner, Carina, Spencer, Nick, Spies, Jeffrey R., Steegen, Sara, Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B., Talhelm, Thomas, Tapia, Megan, Te Dorsthorst, Anniek, Thomae, Manuela, Thomas, Sarah L., Tio, Pia, Traets, Frits, Tsang, Steve, Tuerlinckx, Francis, Turchan, Paul, Valášek, Milan, Van't Veer, Anna E., Van Aert, Robbie, Van Assen, Marcel, Van Bork, Riet, Van De Ven, Mathijs, Van Den Bergh, Don, Van Der Hulst, Marije, Van Dooren, Roel, Van Doorn, Johnny, Van Renswoude, Daan R., Van Rijn, Hedderik, Vanpaemel, Wolf, Echeverría, Alejandro Vásquez, Vazquez, Melissa, Velez, Natalia, Vermue, Marieke, Verschoor, Mark, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, Vuu, Gina, Wagenmakers, Eric Jan, Weerdmeester, Joanneke, Welsh, Ashlee, Westgate, Erin C., Wissink, Joeri, Wood, Michael, Woods, Andy, Wright, Emily, Wu, Sining, Zeelenberg, Marcel, and Zuni, Kellylynn

Published
2015

40. Causality in Psychiatry: A Hybrid Symptom Network Construct Model.

Author

Young, Gerald, Vanheule, Stijn, and Van Bork, Riet

Subjects
PSYCHIATRY, ETIOLOGY of diseases, REDUCTIONISM
Abstract

Causality or etiology in psychiatry is marked by standard biomedical, reductionistic models (symptoms reflect the construct involved) that inform approaches to nosology, or classification, such as in the DSM-5 [Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition; (1)]. However, network approaches to symptom interaction [i.e., symptoms are formative of the construct; e.g., (2), for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD)] are being developed that speak to bottom-up processes in mental disorder, in contrast to the typical top-down psychological construct approach. The present article presents a hybrid top-down, bottom-up model of the relationship between symptoms and mental disorder, viewing symptom expression and their causal complex as a reciprocally dynamic system with multiple levels, from lower-order symptoms in interaction to higher-order constructs affecting them. The hybrid model hinges on good understanding of systems theory in which it is embedded, so that the article reviews in depth non-linear dynamical systems theory (NLDST). The article applies the concept of emergent circular causality (3) to symptom development, as well. Conclusions consider that symptoms vary over several dimensions, including: subjectivity; objectivity; conscious motivation effort; and unconscious influences, and the degree to which individual (e.g., meaning) and universal (e.g., causal) processes are involved. The opposition between science and skepticism is a complex one that the article addresses in final comments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2015
Full Text
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41. Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science

Author

Open Science Collaboration, Aarts, Alexander A., Anderson, Joanna E., Anderson, Christopher J., Attridge, Peter R., Attwood, Angela, Axt, Jordan, Babel, Molly, Bahník, Štěpán, Baranski, Erica, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bartmess, Elizabeth, Beer, Jennifer, Bell, Raoul, Bentley, Heather, Beyan, Leah, Binion, Grace, Borsboom, Denny, Bosch, Annick, Bosco, Frank A., Bowman, Sara D., Brandt, Mark J., Braswell, Erin, Brohmer, Hilmar, Brown, Benjamin T., Brown, Kristina, Brüning, Jovita, Calhoun-Sauls, Ann, Callahan, Shannon P., Chagnon, Elizabeth, Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R., Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D., Cillessen, Linda, Clay, Russ, Cleary, Hayley, Cloud, Mark D., Cohn, Michael, Cohoon, Johanna, Columbus, Simon, Cordes, Andreas, Costantini, Giulio, Cramblet Alvarez, Leslie D., Cremata, Ed, Crusius, Jan, DeCoster, Jamie, DeGaetano, Michelle A., Della Penna, Nicolás, den Bezemer, Bobby, Deserno, Marie K., Devitt, Olivia, Dewitte, Laura, Dobolyi, David G., Dodson, Geneva T., Donnellan, M. Brent, Donohue, Ryan, Dore, Rebecca A., Dorrough, Angela, Dreber, Anna, Dugas, Michelle, Dunn, Elizabeth W., Easey, Kayleigh, Eboigbe, Sylvia, Eggleston, Casey, Embley, Jo, Epskamp, Sacha, Errington, Timothy M., Estel, Vivien, Farach, Frank J., Feather, Jenelle, Fedor, Anna, Fernández-Castilla, Belén, Fiedler, Susann, Field, James G., Fitneva, Stanka A., Flagan, Taru, Forest, Amanda L., Forsell, Eskil, Foster, Joshua D., Frank, Michael C., Frazier, Rebecca S., Fuchs, Heather, Gable, Philip, Galak, Jeff, Galliani, Elisa Maria, Gampa, Anup, Garcia, Sara, Gazarian, Douglas, Gilbert, Elizabeth, Giner-Sorolla, Roger, Glöckner, Andreas, Goellner, Lars, Goh, Jin X., Goldberg, Rebecca, Goodbourn, Patrick T., Gordon-McKeon, Shauna, Gorges, Bryan, Gorges, Jessie, Goss, Justin, Graham, Jesse, Grange, James A., Gray, Jeremy, Hartgerink, Chris, Hartshorne, Joshua, Hasselman, Fred, Hayes, Timothy, Heikensten, Emma, Henninger, Felix, Hodsoll, John, Holubar, Taylor, Hoogendoorn, Gea, Humphries, Denise J., Hung, Cathy O.Y., Immelman, Nathali, Irsik, Vanessa C., Jahn, Georg, Jäkel, Frank, Jekel, Marc, Johannesson, Magnus, Johnson, Larissa G., Johnson, David J., Johnson, Kate M., Johnston, William J., Jonas, Kai, Joy-Gaba, Jennifer A., Kappes, Heather Barry, Kelso, Kim, Kidwell, Mallory C., Kim, Seung Kyung, Kirkhart, Matthew, Kleinberg, Bennett, Knežević, Goran, Kolorz, Franziska Maria, Kossakowski, Jolanda J., Krause, Robert Wilhelm, Krijnen, Job, Kuhlmann, Tim, Kunkels, Yoram K., Kyc, Megan M., Lai, Calvin K., Laique, Aamir, Lakens, Daniël, Lane, Kristin A., Lassetter, Bethany, Lazarević, Ljiljana B., LeBel, Etienne P., Lee, Key Jung, Lee, Minha, Lemm, Kristi, Levitan, Carmel A., Lewis, Melissa, Lin, Lin, Lin, Stephanie, Lippold, Matthias, Loureiro, Darren, Luteijn, Ilse, Mackinnon, Sean, Mainard, Heather N., Marigold, Denise C., Martin, Daniel P., Martinez, Tylar, Masicampo, E.J., Matacotta, Josh, Mathur, Maya B., May, Michael, Mehta, Pranjal, Meixner, Johannes, Melinger, Alissa, Miller, Jeremy K., Miller, Mallorie, Moore, Katherine, Möschl, Marcus, Motyl, Matt, Müller, Stephanie M., Munafo, Marcus, Neijenhuijs, Koen I., Nervi, Taylor, Nicolas, Gandalf, Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A., Nuijten, Michèle B., Olsson, Catherine, Osborne, Colleen, Ostkamp, Lutz, Pavel, Misha, Penton-Voak, Ian S., Perna, Olivia, Pernet, Cyril, Perugini, Marco, Pipitone, R. Nathan, Pitts, Michael, Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M., Rahal, Rima-Maria, Ratliff, Kate A., Reinhard, David, Renkewitz, Frank, Ricker, Ashley A., Rigney, Anastasia, Rivers, Andrew M., Roebke, Mark, Rutchick, Abraham M., Ryan, Robert S., Sahin, Onur, Saide, Anondah, Sandstrom, Gillian M., Santos, David, Saxe, Rebecca, Schlegelmilch, René, Schmidt, Kathleen, Scholz, Sabine, Seibel, Larissa, Selterman, Dylan Faulkner, Shaki, Samuel, Simpson, William B., Sinclair, Colleen, Skorinko, Jeanine L., Slowik, Agnieszka, Snyder, Joel S., Soderberg, Courtney, Sonnleitner, Carina, Spencer, Nick, Spies, Jeffrey R., Steegen, Sara, Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B., Talhelm, Thomas, Tapia, Megan, te Dorsthorst, Anniek, Thomae, Manuela, Thomas, Sarah L., Tio, Pia, Traets, Frits, Tsang, Steve, Tuerlinckx, Francis, Turchan, Paul, Valášek, Milan, van ‘t Veer, A. E., Van Aert, Robbie, van Assen, Marcel, van Bork, Riet, van de Ven, Mathijs, van den Bergh, Donald, van der Hulst, Marije, van Dooren, Roel, van Doorn, Johnny, van Renswoude, Daan R., van Rijn, Hedderik, Vanpaemel, Wolf, Vásquez Echeverría, Alejandro, Vazquez, Melissa, Velez, Natalia, Vermue, Marieke, Verschoor, Mark, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, Vuu, Gina, Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan, Weerdmeester, Joanneke, Welsh, Ashlee, Westgate, Erin C., Wissink, Joeri, Wood, Michael, Woods, Andy, Wright, Emily, Wu, Sining, Zeelenberg, Marcel, Zuni, Kellylynn, Open Science Collaboration, Aarts, Alexander A., Anderson, Joanna E., Anderson, Christopher J., Attridge, Peter R., Attwood, Angela, Axt, Jordan, Babel, Molly, Bahník, Štěpán, Baranski, Erica, Barnett-Cowan, Michael, Bartmess, Elizabeth, Beer, Jennifer, Bell, Raoul, Bentley, Heather, Beyan, Leah, Binion, Grace, Borsboom, Denny, Bosch, Annick, Bosco, Frank A., Bowman, Sara D., Brandt, Mark J., Braswell, Erin, Brohmer, Hilmar, Brown, Benjamin T., Brown, Kristina, Brüning, Jovita, Calhoun-Sauls, Ann, Callahan, Shannon P., Chagnon, Elizabeth, Chandler, Jesse, Chartier, Christopher R., Cheung, Felix, Christopherson, Cody D., Cillessen, Linda, Clay, Russ, Cleary, Hayley, Cloud, Mark D., Cohn, Michael, Cohoon, Johanna, Columbus, Simon, Cordes, Andreas, Costantini, Giulio, Cramblet Alvarez, Leslie D., Cremata, Ed, Crusius, Jan, DeCoster, Jamie, DeGaetano, Michelle A., Della Penna, Nicolás, den Bezemer, Bobby, Deserno, Marie K., Devitt, Olivia, Dewitte, Laura, Dobolyi, David G., Dodson, Geneva T., Donnellan, M. Brent, Donohue, Ryan, Dore, Rebecca A., Dorrough, Angela, Dreber, Anna, Dugas, Michelle, Dunn, Elizabeth W., Easey, Kayleigh, Eboigbe, Sylvia, Eggleston, Casey, Embley, Jo, Epskamp, Sacha, Errington, Timothy M., Estel, Vivien, Farach, Frank J., Feather, Jenelle, Fedor, Anna, Fernández-Castilla, Belén, Fiedler, Susann, Field, James G., Fitneva, Stanka A., Flagan, Taru, Forest, Amanda L., Forsell, Eskil, Foster, Joshua D., Frank, Michael C., Frazier, Rebecca S., Fuchs, Heather, Gable, Philip, Galak, Jeff, Galliani, Elisa Maria, Gampa, Anup, Garcia, Sara, Gazarian, Douglas, Gilbert, Elizabeth, Giner-Sorolla, Roger, Glöckner, Andreas, Goellner, Lars, Goh, Jin X., Goldberg, Rebecca, Goodbourn, Patrick T., Gordon-McKeon, Shauna, Gorges, Bryan, Gorges, Jessie, Goss, Justin, Graham, Jesse, Grange, James A., Gray, Jeremy, Hartgerink, Chris, Hartshorne, Joshua, Hasselman, Fred, Hayes, Timothy, Heikensten, Emma, Henninger, Felix, Hodsoll, John, Holubar, Taylor, Hoogendoorn, Gea, Humphries, Denise J., Hung, Cathy O.Y., Immelman, Nathali, Irsik, Vanessa C., Jahn, Georg, Jäkel, Frank, Jekel, Marc, Johannesson, Magnus, Johnson, Larissa G., Johnson, David J., Johnson, Kate M., Johnston, William J., Jonas, Kai, Joy-Gaba, Jennifer A., Kappes, Heather Barry, Kelso, Kim, Kidwell, Mallory C., Kim, Seung Kyung, Kirkhart, Matthew, Kleinberg, Bennett, Knežević, Goran, Kolorz, Franziska Maria, Kossakowski, Jolanda J., Krause, Robert Wilhelm, Krijnen, Job, Kuhlmann, Tim, Kunkels, Yoram K., Kyc, Megan M., Lai, Calvin K., Laique, Aamir, Lakens, Daniël, Lane, Kristin A., Lassetter, Bethany, Lazarević, Ljiljana B., LeBel, Etienne P., Lee, Key Jung, Lee, Minha, Lemm, Kristi, Levitan, Carmel A., Lewis, Melissa, Lin, Lin, Lin, Stephanie, Lippold, Matthias, Loureiro, Darren, Luteijn, Ilse, Mackinnon, Sean, Mainard, Heather N., Marigold, Denise C., Martin, Daniel P., Martinez, Tylar, Masicampo, E.J., Matacotta, Josh, Mathur, Maya B., May, Michael, Mehta, Pranjal, Meixner, Johannes, Melinger, Alissa, Miller, Jeremy K., Miller, Mallorie, Moore, Katherine, Möschl, Marcus, Motyl, Matt, Müller, Stephanie M., Munafo, Marcus, Neijenhuijs, Koen I., Nervi, Taylor, Nicolas, Gandalf, Nilsonne, Gustav, Nosek, Brian A., Nuijten, Michèle B., Olsson, Catherine, Osborne, Colleen, Ostkamp, Lutz, Pavel, Misha, Penton-Voak, Ian S., Perna, Olivia, Pernet, Cyril, Perugini, Marco, Pipitone, R. Nathan, Pitts, Michael, Plessow, Franziska, Prenoveau, Jason M., Rahal, Rima-Maria, Ratliff, Kate A., Reinhard, David, Renkewitz, Frank, Ricker, Ashley A., Rigney, Anastasia, Rivers, Andrew M., Roebke, Mark, Rutchick, Abraham M., Ryan, Robert S., Sahin, Onur, Saide, Anondah, Sandstrom, Gillian M., Santos, David, Saxe, Rebecca, Schlegelmilch, René, Schmidt, Kathleen, Scholz, Sabine, Seibel, Larissa, Selterman, Dylan Faulkner, Shaki, Samuel, Simpson, William B., Sinclair, Colleen, Skorinko, Jeanine L., Slowik, Agnieszka, Snyder, Joel S., Soderberg, Courtney, Sonnleitner, Carina, Spencer, Nick, Spies, Jeffrey R., Steegen, Sara, Stieger, Stefan, Strohminger, Nina, Sullivan, Gavin B., Talhelm, Thomas, Tapia, Megan, te Dorsthorst, Anniek, Thomae, Manuela, Thomas, Sarah L., Tio, Pia, Traets, Frits, Tsang, Steve, Tuerlinckx, Francis, Turchan, Paul, Valášek, Milan, van ‘t Veer, A. E., Van Aert, Robbie, van Assen, Marcel, van Bork, Riet, van de Ven, Mathijs, van den Bergh, Donald, van der Hulst, Marije, van Dooren, Roel, van Doorn, Johnny, van Renswoude, Daan R., van Rijn, Hedderik, Vanpaemel, Wolf, Vásquez Echeverría, Alejandro, Vazquez, Melissa, Velez, Natalia, Vermue, Marieke, Verschoor, Mark, Vianello, Michelangelo, Voracek, Martin, Vuu, Gina, Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan, Weerdmeester, Joanneke, Welsh, Ashlee, Westgate, Erin C., Wissink, Joeri, Wood, Michael, Woods, Andy, Wright, Emily, Wu, Sining, Zeelenberg, Marcel, and Zuni, Kellylynn

Abstract

Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.

42. A causal theory of error scores.

Author

van Bork R, Rhemtulla M, Sijtsma K, and Borsboom D

Subjects
Humans, Psychology methods, Psychology standards, Data Interpretation, Statistical, Reproducibility of Results, Psychometrics methods, Psychometrics standards, Models, Statistical
Abstract

In modern test theory, response variables are a function of a common latent variable that represents the measured attribute, and error variables that are unique to the response variables. While considerable thought goes into the interpretation of latent variables in these models (e.g., validity research), the interpretation of error variables is typically left implicit (e.g., describing error variables as residuals). Yet, many psychometric assumptions are essentially assumptions about error and thus being able to reason about psychometric models requires the ability to reason about errors. We propose a causal theory of error as a framework that enables researchers to reason about errors in terms of the data-generating mechanism. In this framework, the error variable reflects myriad causes that are specific to an item and, together with the latent variable, determine the scores on that item. We distinguish two types of item-specific causes: characteristic variables that differ between people (e.g., familiarity with words used in the item), and circumstance variables that vary over occasions in which the item is administered (e.g., a distracting noise). We show that different assumptions about these unique causes (a) imply different psychometric models; (b) have different implications for the chance experiment that makes these models probabilistic models; and (c) have different consequences for item bias, local homogeneity, and reliability coefficient α and the test-retest correlation. The ability to reason about the causes that produce error variance puts researchers in a better position to motivate modeling choices. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Published
2024
Full Text
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43. Productive explanation: A framework for evaluating explanations in psychological science.

Author

van Dongen N, van Bork R, Finnemann A, Haslbeck JMB, van der Maas HLJ, Robinaugh DJ, de Ron J, Sprenger J, and Borsboom D

Abstract

The explanation of psychological phenomena is a central aim of psychological science. However, the nature of explanation and the processes by which we evaluate whether a theory explains a phenomenon are often unclear. Consequently, it is often unknown whether a given psychological theory indeed explains a phenomenon. We address this shortcoming by proposing a productive account of explanation: a theory explains a phenomenon to some degree if and only if a formal model of the theory produces the statistical pattern representing the phenomenon. Using this account, we outline a workable methodology of explanation: (a) explicating a verbal theory into a formal model, (b) representing phenomena as statistical patterns in data, and (c) assessing whether the formal model produces these statistical patterns. In addition, we provide three major criteria for evaluating the goodness of an explanation (precision, robustness, and empirical relevance), and examine some cases of explanatory breakdowns. Finally, we situate our framework within existing theories of explanation from philosophy of science and discuss how our approach contributes to constructing and developing better psychological theories. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Published
2024
Full Text
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