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Numerous shrinking cities have emerged in the new development stage of China, and the authorities have tried to adopt the policy pool of abolishing counties and establishing districts to alleviate urban shrinkage. This study uses urban nighttime light data from 2010 to 2017 to determine whether the policy is effective in a Difference-in-Difference model framework. We find that China's urban shrinkage shows a shrinkage–expansion cycle, and the policy of removing counties and establishing districts has a significant effect on the population of the counties, which indicates that the policy can ease urban shrinkage. Specifically, the positive effect is stronger for counties belonging to cities with higher administrative rank, and for cities located in the East region and Southwest region. Our study has great practical implications for the governance of shrinking cities and promoting sustainable urban development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores how local actors in Buffalo and Cleveland mobilized through garden tourism as a form of alternative urbanism to rehabilitate heavily stigmatized places and remake their city's reputations. Buidling off the concepts of civic action and scene styles, I compare how grassroots actors in Buffalo mobilized through a symbolic purity scene style to deracialize urban stigmas to how grassroots actors in Cleveland mobilized through a diversity scene style to create an inclusive place reputation that addressed the city's internal racial and ethnic divsions. I found that in the process of rehabbing their communities, grassroots actors in both cities replaced racialized urban stigmas with a different form of Whiteness, and when residents and elites shared the same scene style, they were more likely to cooperate, which entrenched the garden tour with local elites and other organizations in the cultural tourism field. Cultural variables like a place's reputation matter in how and what kind of Rust Belt city will emerge from the era of urban shrinkage. Data for this article comes from 50 semistructured in-depth interviews, fieldwork, and archival data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the interplay between governance priorities concerning urban shrinkage and the circular economy (CE) agenda in the cases of Parkstad Limburg (NL) and Satakunta (FI), aiming to assess the potential of European circular imaginaries for creating novel development pathways in shrinking cities and regions. The findings reveal that the CE agenda emerges within specific sectors due to various influences, including European institutional frameworks, national policies and local initiatives. Notably, the advocacy of commercial actors plays an instrumental role in advancing the CE concept into policy. However, both regions also demonstrate differences arising from distinct regional characteristics. Satakunta harnesses its manufacturing legacy to pursue economic and demographic growth through an industrial CE. Meanwhile, Parkstad Limburg prioritises circular construction to facilitate spatial restructuring and secure public funding. Therefore, in shrinking contexts, CE operates as a unifying agenda for existing interests, upholding prevailing political priorities rather than opening novel governance avenues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The environmental effects of urban shrinkage have gradually attracted academic attention. Based on spatial effects and EKC perspectives, this study constructs an environmental impact assessment framework and examines the impact of urban shrinkage on the concentration of lung-accessible particulate matter at the county level in China from 2013 to 2020. The results show that, from a two-dimensional perspective in space and time, lung-accessible particulate matter concentrations show a decreasing trend in the time series and an obvious autocorrelation feature in space. Urban shrinkage can affect lung-accessible particulate matter concentrations through spatial effects. Through direct effects, urban shrinkage promotes the increase of lung-accessible particulate matter concentrations. Through spillover effects, urban shrinkage suppresses the growth of lung-accessible particulate matter concentrations. The effect of urban shrinkage on lung-accessible particulate matter concentration is nonlinear (EKC). This may be the result of the "siphon effect." Furthermore, in the extended STIRPAT model, it was found that population and economic and technological factors differentially affect lung-accessible particulate matter concentrations in shrinking cities. This study gives a new idea and insight into the changes in environmental pollution in shrinking cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Objective] In order to provide a theoretical basis for the transformation and development of resource-based cities, the contraction states of different types of resource-based cities are revealed and their contraction tracks are simulated. [Methods] Taking 116 prefecture-level resource-based cities in China as the research object, the multi-dimensional shrinkage identification method was used to measure the shrinkage intensity of different types of cities, fit the shrinkage process, and analyze the evolution characteristics. [Results] (1) From 2000 to 2020, 56 resource-based cities in China will experience population contraction (48.28%), 42 will experience economic contraction (36.21%), and 26 of them will experience double population and economic contraction (22.41%). (2) In terms of development stage, the proportion of shrinkage in declining, mature and growing cities is higher, 65.22%, 63.49% and 60.00%, respectively. From the perspective of resource type, the shrinkage ratio of forestry, oil and gas and comprehensive resource-based cities is higher, and the shrinkage of forestry cities is particularly significant, 80% of cities have double shrinkage of population and economy. (3) Resource-based shrinking cities are mainly distributed in the north of Dandong and Panzhihua Line, and clustered in the northeast and Shaanxi, Gansu, Shanxi, Mongolia, and other regions. (4) There is a certain regularity in the evolution trajectory of resource-based shrinking cities, which can be divided into two categories: smart contraction and typical contraction, and the typical contraction is further subdivided into contraction appearance, contraction advancement and contraction significance. The number of cities whose trajectory type is contraction propulsion is the largest, accounting for 33.33%. The trajectory types of contraction were mainly concentrated in two types of cities, namely regeneration type (63%) and decline type (47%). [Conclusion] The dual-dimension measurement of population and economy can identify the contraction of resource-based cities more comprehensively, and the simulation and classification of contraction trajectories of different types of resource-based cities can provide references for the transformation and development of resource-based cities.

[Objective] The high-quality development of resource-based cities is an important part of the high-quality development of Chinese cities. At present, the shrinkage of resource-based cities in China is obvious. Exploring the mechanism of influence of resource industry dependence on urban shrinkage can provide a reference for the transformation of resource-based cities and promote the high-quality development of cities. [Methods] Based on the cross-sectional data of 792 resource-based cities at or above the county level in China in 2010 and 2020, this study empirically tested the influence of resource industry dependence on the shrinkage of these cities and its mechanism by using the least square regression model, the mediation effect model, and the moderating effect model. [Results] (1) The benchmark regression results showed that resource industry dependence had a significant promoting effect on urban shrinkage after controlling the influence of other factors on urban shrinkage. (2) Mechanism analysis showed that the resource industry relied on impeding the accumulation of human capital to promote urban shrinkage. (3) The results of moderating effect test showed that resource price had a negative moderating effect on the influence of resource industry dependence on urban shrinkage. (4) The influence of resource industry dependence on the shrinkage of resource-based cities and the intermediary effect of human capital were heterogeneous. The promoting effect of resource industry dependence on the shrinkage of resource-based cities was more significant in mature cities, while the intermediary effect of human capital was more significant in mature and declining cities. [Conclusion] Improving the level of human capital and paying attention to resource price forecasting are feasible measures to promote the population growth of resource-based cities which depend on the development of resource industries. It is suggested that resource-based cities should change the development mode of resource-dependent industries, pay attention to the accumulation of human capital, and improve the ability of resource price forecasting.

The article studies transformations that occurred in the territorial structure of the population of the Nizhny Novgorod urban agglomeration in 2019–2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic. The identified changes are analyzed in the context of two concepts: urban socioeconomic shrinkage and territorial (spatial) resilience. Particular attention is paid to microlevel changes in the territorial distribution of day and night populations, studied on the basis of aggregated anonymized mobile network operator data. The results of the study allow us to broaden understanding of the structure of urban agglomerations as local settlement systems from the standpoint of their potential response to crisis phenomena. In addition, the study may be of interest in terms of the formation mechanisms of the internal territorial resilience of large urban agglomerations. Also, one aspect of its scientific novelty was the delimitation of the Nizhny Novgorod urban agglomeration by assessing the integral transport accessibility. Based on the results of the study, it is postulated that the territorial structure of the population of the Nizhny Novgorod urban agglomeration showed a relatively high level of resilience to the adverse consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. This is explained by the complex nature of its design and potential ability to redistribute negative effects. One of the key reactions of the territorial structure of both the daytime and nighttime populations was the growth of its microlevel polarization, which especially affected public, business, and mixed zones, as well as large residential areas. An increase in polarization was observed in the central zones of cities, including the core of the urban agglomeration, corresponding to the historical center of Nizhny Novgorod. There is a trend towards differentiation of low-density residential suburban areas. Based on the above, the conclusion is postulated that the changes that have occurred in the territorial structure of population can be called a special form of "agglomeration shrinkage," not accompanied by a reduction in the population of the urban agglomeration, but increasing internal territorial disproportions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid urbanization is universally acknowledged to degrade ecosystem services, posing significant threats to human well-being. However, the effects of urban shrinkage, a global phenomenon and a counterpart to urbanization, on ecosystem services (ESs) remain unclear. This study focuses on China's Rust Belt during the period from 2000 to 2020, constructing a comprehensive analytical framework based on long-term remote sensing data to reveal the temporal and spatial patterns of ESs and their associations with cities experiencing varying degrees of shrinkage. It employs a random forest (RF) model and a Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) model to measure and visualize the significance and thresholds of socioeconomic factors influencing changes in ESs. Our findings highlight the following: (1) Since 2010, the three provinces of Northeast China (TPNC) have begun to shrink comprehensively, with the degree of shrinkage intensifying over time. Resource-based cities have all experienced contraction. (2) Regional urban shrinkage has been found to enhance the overall provision capacity of ESs, with the most significant improvements in cities undergoing continuous shrinkage. (3) The impact of the same socioeconomic drivers varies across cities with different levels of shrinkage; increasing green-space ratios and investing more in public welfare have been identified as effective measures to enhance ESs. (4) Threshold analysis indicates that the stability of the tertiary sector's proportion is critically important for enhancing ESs in cities undergoing intermittent shrinkage. An increase of 10% to 15% in this sector can allow continuously shrinking cities to balance urban development with ecological improvements. This research highlights the positive aspects of urban shrinkage, demonstrating its ability to enhance the provision capacity of ESs. It offers new insights into the protection and management of regional ecosystems and the urban transformation of the three eastern provinces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the relationship between urban form and urban shrinkage is crucial for developing sustainable urban policies, particularly in medium-sized cities facing demographic and economic challenges. This study investigates the complex relationship between urban form and urban shrinkage in medium-sized Polish cities (population of 20,000 to 100,000), highlighting the implications for sustainability. Utilising a comprehensive multi-factor approach, it analyses the shrinkage and growth trends over 15 years (2006–2021) by establishing a shrinkage/growth score based on social, demographic, and economic factors for each city. It examines spatial aspects, particularly urban form compactness and population density, using Corine Land Cover (CLC) spatial data, making the methodology applicable to urban areas across Europe. The findings reveal no significant overall correlation between urban compactness and shrinkage/growth score across all cities. However, a positive correlation exists within "urban municipalities", indicating that less compact urban areas tend to experience more shrinkage. Additionally, a temporary negative correlation between population density and shrinkage/growth score was observed from 2006 to 2016, which shifted to a positive trend in "urban municipalities" from 2016 to 2021. These results highlight urban shrinkage's complex and dynamic nature and its potential ties to urban form. The study concludes with recommendations for urban policymakers and planners regarding compact and dense urban strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of shrinkage and enhance urban resilience and sustainability. While the trends change, the study highlights the need for further analysis of these relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is of great significance to carry out accurate identification of urban shrinkage and comparative analysis of its influencing factors in large national regions, to reduce the error based on administrative area identification. By constructing the VANUI index, calculating the one-dimensional linear regression coefficient of the DN value of night light and the WorldPop population grid data, and based on the overlay of the regression coefficient of the DN value of night light, and the regression coefficient of the WorldPop population grid data, the urban areas of East Germany and Northeast China in the two stages of 2000-2009 and 2010-2018 were divided into four types: absolute growth, smart shrinkage, negative growth and absolute shrinkage. This pa‐ per then studied and compared the spatio-temporal distribution and transformation path of the two stages of absolute shrinkage and smart shrinkage in the two regions, and constructed a panel regression model from population growth, scientific and technological development level, medical service level and other aspects to conduct a comparative analysis of the influencing factors of the two stages of urban shrinkage in the two regions. The results show that the absolute shrink‐ age areas in the two regions have a great similarity in spatiotemporal distribution and transformation path; the smart shrinkage areas are similar in spatiotemporal distribution, but different in transformation path; the absolute shrinkage areas in the two regions and two stages is relatively small; the mechanism of population growth in the two regions has both similarities and differences, and has different connotations due to differences in national conditions. This study shows that: (1)Urban shrinkage areas have the potential for short-term growth, and their development rights should be treated equally; (2)The absolute shrinking areas should be given special attention and governance, while the smart shrinking areas should be regarded as a reasonable development model for urban shrinking areas; (3)Continuously improving the level of medical, elderly care services and research investment, steadily promoting the transformation of living environment and infrastructure in existing areas, and reasonably controlling incremental development can help alleviate the phenomenon of urban shrinkage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACTUnderstanding the urbanization and transformation trajectories of resource-based cities (RBCs) is pivotal for China’s sustainable development goals. This study introduces a novel regression-based algorithm for assessing urbanization patterns. We delineated the urban boundaries of 335 cities and employed time-series nighttime light data from 2001 to 2020, shifting the analysis from a pixel-scale to an urban-scale perspective. Our analysis reveals distinct disparities within the 125 RBCs when compared to the national average, leading to their categorization. The key findings include: (1) Within Forest and Coal RBCs, numerous areas have stabilized after experiencing contraction. Geographically, a significant number of RBCs in the Northeast, North, and Northwest regions are experiencing or have experienced substantial urban shrinkage. The developmental status of RBCs exhibits a spatial positive correlation. (2) Although the government categorized RBCs based on their development level in 2013, findings suggest that this classification may no longer accurately reflect the current development status of RBCs in the context of urbanization. (3) Utilizing spectral clustering, we categorized RBCs into five types, identified 10 RBCs undergoing shrinkage and 30 cities trending towards stabilization post-shrinkage. This research offers a refined evaluative method for urbanization, providing insights beneficial for policy-making concerning RBCs’ sustainable growth..

[Objective] Due to the limited development of spatialization technology for socioeconomic data, previous research on the factors that affect urban shrinkage at the physical area scale of cities has mostly remained at the stage of qualitative analysis or quantitative analysis using administrative area data instead of physical area data. Breaking through the limit of spatialization of socioeconomic data within physical urban areas is the primary prerequisite for achieving quantitative analysis of influencing factors at the physical area scale. [Methods] By constructing the VANUI index and setting a comprehensive threshold, the scope of physical urban areas in Central and Southern Liaoning was determined. Based on the superposition of the slopes of univariate linear regression between the DN values of nighttime light and LandScan population grid data in the periods of 2013-2017 and 2018-2022, the physical urban areas were divided into four types: absolute growth type, negative growth type, smart shrinkage type, and absolute shrinkage type, and a spatiotemporal evolution analysis was conducted, based on the historical background of the “New Northeast Phenomenon”. By combining CRITIC and entropy weight method for equal weighting, the spatialization of data on influencing factors such as economic development level, medical service level, educational resource abundance, cultural facility density, livability of the environment, and external transportation convenience was achieved using nighttime light data and point of interest (POI) data. Finally, the GTWR model was used to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of urban population growth and shrinkage during the two periods of the region. [Results] (1) The shrinking areas within cities from 2013 to 2017 in Central and Southern Liaoning were all transformed into growing areas from 2018 to 2022. (2) From 2018 to 2022, the proportion of negative growing areas within cities reached 55.80%. (3) The level of medical services, abundance of educational resources, density of cultural facilities, and livability of the environment all had a positive effect on the overall population growth in each city, but the positive effect was generally weakened in the second period. The overall negative effects of external transportation convenience and economic development level were observed during the two periods. [Conclusions] (1) The urban population shrinkage of Central and Southern Liaoning has achieved a growing transformation, and at present, all cities are more characterized by the mismatch of population, social, and economic development. (2) The multidimensional shrinkage of population, society, and economy within all cities is not common. There is a possibility of achieving growing transformation in the short term, and there are significant differences by urban hierarchy. (3) The social and economic development pains accompanied by resource depletion and industrial transformation have weakened the positive attraction of medical, educational, and cultural facility provisions and improvement of the living environment, which are highly tied to economic development, on population. (4) The development of the external transportation system currently has played a role in promoting population loss in cities.

Although the suburbs of numerous cities worldwide are shrinking, research on how to address suburban decline remains scarce. This paper explores participatory mapping in shrinking suburbs as a tool to articulate knowledge co-creation between local officials and communities to inform planning decisions. The paper argues that participatory planning helps to identify sweet spots, everyday life community spaces upon which to anchor regeneration strategies. Using as a case study Minamiashigara, a shrinking suburb of Tokyo, the paper discusses how sweet spots can be integrated into existing municipal strategies to alleviate the consequences of shrinkage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Questions: Numerous studies on community assembly processes have been conducted in natural ecosystems. However, we know little about community assembly processes in human‐dominated urban ecosystems. Here, we asked: (1) how are the composition and functional diversity of native and exotic plant species shaped by local environment and landscape factors across urban vacant lots; and (2) how is microbial (bacterial and fungal) community composition influenced by the local environment, landscape factors, and plant species composition across urban vacant lots? Location: We investigated 69 urban vacant lots in Yokohama, Japan. Methods: By using a variation partitioning approach, we examined the relative importance of local environmental and landscape factors (including land use and spatial structure) in explaining variation in plant species composition and functional diversity of native or exotic species. We also explored the relative importance of local environmental and landscape factors, and plant species composition in explaining variation in microbial community composition. Results: The spatial structure of vacant lots determined the species composition and functional diversity of plant communities, suggesting that plant community assembly is determined by dispersal limitation. However, the functional diversity of the exotic species varied randomly, which reduced the relative importance of the spatial structure of vacant lots. Plant species composition as well as the spatial structure of vacant lots were the important drivers of the composition of soil microbial communities, despite a higher proportion of unexplained variation in their composition. Finally, we found an essential contribution of earthmoving methods in explaining the variations in both plant and microbial community composition. Conclusion: Plant and microbial community composition would be largely determined by dispersal limitation across urban vacant lots. Understanding urban community assembly is critical for predicting plant and microbial communities that play an essential role in regulating urban ecosystem functioning and services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the increasing uncertainty of urban development, urban shrinkage in the rapid urbanization process in China has become increasingly serious. While many studies have explored urban shrinkage from the economic and population perspectives, they often ignore the essence of the phased evolution of economic and population factors. Thus, this study introduces the theory of economic resilience into the field of urban shrinkage and constructs a theoretical method for identifying urban shrinkage by integrating economic resilience and population change to reveal the evolutionary trajectory of regional urban growth and shrinkage. The results show that urban economic resilience and population change in the Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia region (SSIMR) exhibit strong volatility, highlighting the importance of conducting urban shrinkage studies within specific crisis disturbance scenarios. In the context of the "new normal of the economy", the economic resilience of cities in the SSIMR has significantly declined, and the problem of economic recession is gradually intensifying. The population change trend of cities in the SSIMR is relatively stable, with population loss being a common problem in urban development in the area and its scope and intensity increasing daily. Urban development in the SSIMR is evolving from global growth to widespread shrinkage, with 56.67% of the cities experiencing relative shrinkage, showing a spatial pattern of "western growth–eastern shrinkage". Factors such as the agglomeration effect, industrial structure, and policy system collectively shape the evolution of urban growth and shrinkage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Objective] Enhancing economic resilience of cities is key to achieving sustainable urban development. With the increasing differentiation in urban population growth, exploring the mechanisms of impact of population growth and shrinkage on urban economic resilience is crucial for strengthening urban resilience and addressing uncertain risks. [Methods] Based on the panel data of 280 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2008 to 2019, this study employed fixed effect models and moderating effect models to empirically test the mechanisms of impact of population growth and shrinkage on urban economic resilience. [Results] The study found that: (1) Population growth and shrinkage have a significant impact on urban economic resilience, with a greater effect on the cities’ ability to withstand risks than on their economic recovery capabilities. (2) Mechanism analysis result indicates that industrial structure and human capital level played a positive moderating role in the impact of population growth and shrinkage on urban economic resilience. (3) The effects of industrial structure upgrading and human capital varied with city size and resource endowment, with the industrial structure upgrading effect more pronounced in large cities and non-resource-based economic regions. [Conclusion] Improving the level of human capital and accelerating industrial agglomeration and upgrading are important strategies to enhance urban economic resilience in the context of population growth differentiation. The findings of this study can provide important references for different regions to formulate sustainable development paths adapted to population growth or shrinkage.

[Objective] In recent years, the phenomenon of urban shrinkage has become increasingly prominent in China, and it is of great significance to accurately identify this phenomenon and its influence mechanism on land prices, which may help in guiding the construction of new urbanization and coordinated regional development. [Methods] This study used the panel data of Chinese cities from 2011 to 2021 to establish a spatial Durbin model through threshold regression and spatial autocorrelation test and to explore the impact of urban shrinkage on urban land prices. [Results] (1) After controlling for the fixed effect of province and time, the regression results show that the urban shrinkage is negatively correlated with land price, indicating that the city with urban shrinkage was called the city without urban shrinkage, and the land price is lower. (2) The regression analysis divides the sample into three regions and finds that the negative impact of urban shrinkage of central and western regions on land price is more significant, while the shrinkage of eastern cities is not significant, which indicates that the impact of urban shrinkage in different regions on land price is heterogeneous. (3) Taking per capita carbon emissions as the threshold variable, the results show that with the increase of per capita carbon emissions, there is a structural break point in the impact of urban shrinkage on land price, especially after crossing the threshold. (4) The results of the spatial econometric model show that due to the significant spatial spillover effect of urban shrinkage, the shrinkage of one city causes the rise of land prices in surrounding cities. This suggests that there is a spatial correlation between urban shrinkage and impact on nearby cities. [Conclusion] Urban shrinkage is an unavoidable problem in the process of urbanization in the new stage of development. Therefore, it is of great significance to adopt differentiated shrinkage strategies to guide the urban economic development of various regions and maintain stable and controllable land prices. The results of this study provide important policy implications for the government to coordinate regional development, strengthen environmental protection, and optimize the allocation of land resources.

This paper addresses current debates on the role of social capital in the context of urban shrinkage, by investigating the specific role of informal social capital. The results are drawn from qualitative studies conducted in two French medium-sized shrinking cities. The findings show that similarly to the institutional and collective forms of social capital analyzed in previous literature, informal social capital is also impacted by the changes affecting urban place in the context of shrinkage, and particularly weakened for elderly residents – especially women – and young professionals. At the same time, it constitutes an efficient resource, that helps residents facing shrinkage-related problems individually rather than addressing shrinkage itself collectively. Finally, the findings highlight the role of specific social actors such as community centres who, by providing institutionalized sources of social capital, foster the creation of informal social capital and allow us to address its unequal distribution and weakening. This emphasizes the need to reconsider current social capital-based planning strategies, from relying mainly on collective initiatives addressing shrinkage, to supporting institutional social actors in the creation of small scale, individual level social ties and interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eliminating poverty and improving welfare are the value pursuit of global development. Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities in China from 2010 to 2020, the path relationship among urban shrinkage, urban–rural development, and residents' welfare growth is empirically tested. The heterogeneity of urban shrinkage affecting residents' welfare are further revealed from multidimensional perspectives such as public financial pressure, attention to ageing cause, provincial capital welfare spillover, land expansion, and geographic differences. The research shows that: (1) Urban shrinkage not only directly inhibit residents' welfare, but also curb the improvement of residents' welfare through widening urban–rural income gap and strengthening urban–rural dual economic structure. (2) The higher the public financial pressure and the attention to the aging cause, the more obvious the inhibitory effect of urban shrinkage on the welfare. The welfare spillover of provincial capital cities show a distinct characteristics of distance attenuation. (3) The inhibitory effect of urban shrinkage on welfare growth is stronger in cities with a higher degree of land expansion. The inhibitory effect of the widening urban–rural income gap on welfare growth presents a V-shaped trend with land expansion. (4) The overall impact of urban shrinkage, urban–rural income gap, and urban–rural dual economic structure on residents' welfare is negative, and the spatiotemporal heterogeneity is significant. The impact of urban shrinkage on residents' welfare in seven cities of Hebei and Shandong province is at the stage of turning from negative to positive during the study period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of urban shrinkage has gradually become a new topic. Theoretically, urban shrinkage may exert great influence on land use efficiency (LUE) through various urban subsystems, but there is currently limited research examining these pathways. Using the Super-SBM-Undesirable model and the Structural Equation Model (SEM), this study calculates the LUE of shrinking cities in Northeast China and simulates the process of urban shrinkage affecting LUE. To quantify the process of urban shrinkage affecting LUE, three mediation variables, namely the economy, public services, and innovation, are used as latent variables to apply SEM. The results show that urban shrinkage will affect LUE through a direct path and indirect paths. In the direct path, urban shrinkage leads to an improvement in LUE. In the indirect paths, the economy and innovation will transmit the negative effect of urban shrinkage on LUE, while public services will reverse this effect. An important contribution of this study is that it quantifies the paths of urban shrinkage affecting LUE, thereby expanding the understanding of urban shrinkage effect and laying a foundation for the sustainable development of shrinking cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban shrinkage has attracted the attention of many geographers and urban planners in recent years. However, there are fewer studies on vacant housing in shrinking cities. Therefore, this study combines multi-source remote sensing images and urban building data to assess the spatiotemporal variation patterns of housing vacancy in a typical shrinking city in China. The following points were obtained: (1) We developed an evaluation model to identify vacant residential buildings in shrinking cities by removing the contribution of nighttime lights from roads and non-residential buildings; (2) The residential building vacancy rate in Fushun city significantly increased from 2013 to 2020, resulting in a significant high-value clustering effect. The impact of urban shrinkage on vacant residential buildings was higher than that on vacant non-residential buildings; (3) The WorldPop population data demonstrated consistent spatial distribution and trend of population change in Fushun with the residential building vacancy rate results, suggesting good reliability of the constructed evaluation model in this study. Identifying housing vacancies can help the local government to raise awareness of the housing vacancy problem in shrinking cities and to propose reasonable renewal strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To inform and operationalize an urban degrowth agenda, more systematic and larger-scale experimentation with degrowth practices is needed. The aim of this study was to explore the suitability of shrinking cities as testing grounds for urban degrowth practices. To answer this question, we analyzed two cases, both urban greening initiatives, located in the shrinking urban region of Parkstad Limburg, in the Netherlands. The cases show that in a shrinking city, with a large surplus of urban land and long-term vacancy and demolishing of buildings, there is literally abundant “room” to experiment with alternative ways and types of urban land use. There is also interest on the side of the local government in alternatives to the conventional approaches to urban planning and development. As both cases can be interpreted as “experiments with urban degrowth practices,” it can be concluded that shrinking cities offer ample opportunities for urban degrowth experiments. The lessons learned from the two studied cases are not very positive concerning the wider feasibility of the tested degrowth practices, but as experiments, the cases can be considered successful. This is because they provided a better understanding of the conditions required for the implementation and upscaling of these practices, also in growing cities. To inform and operationalize an urban degrowth agenda, we, therefore, recommend more research on cases in shrinking cities that can be interpreted and analyzed as experiments with urban degrowth practices.

Spatial transformation follows the logic of a growth-oriented economy that values cities according to their place in the chain of capitalist wealth production. Many cities in East Germany have lost their significance as sites of production and are consequently facing population decline and the weakening of social bonds in the community. For this reason, citizens of the East German small town of Zella-Mehlis (state of Thuringia) have begun to reflect on alternative models for urban development. In this article, the process of arriving at a degrowth strategy, as provided by the academic discourse, will be documented. It will be demonstrated that the process of shrinkage has not only left little space for a degrowth planning approach put into practice. Moreover, the article reveals that the costs of the growth economy on society are not limited to population shrinkage, but also have a severe impact on the sociability of the local community. The rise of right-wing populists and climate change-denying actors mirrors the decreasing social ability for collective learning processes needed for a shift to a solidary degrowth strategy. However, the case study shows how ambivalent these developments are: Long-term participatory processes within the public–civic partnership framework of the Aufwind (German for upwind) initiative in Zella-Mehlis can challenge path dependencies and open new degrowth-inspired perspectives. The article is informed by many years of intensive field research in a qualitative mixed-method design and focuses on the close links between shrinkage processes, the local degrowth agenda, and the consequences of an eroding democracy.

This research focuses on examining how the pursuit of economic growth can contribute to urban shrinkage. In contrast to the prevalent definition of urban shrinkage that links population loss to insufficient levels of economic growth, this study examines the case of Coimbra, Portugal, where something different is happening. We hypothesise that Coimbra experiences population loss due to urban policies that promote economic growth through housing speculation. We conclude that the hypothesis is valid using semi-structured interviews and document analysis as data collection methods. The identified phenomenon disproportionately affects younger and vulnerable residents, forcing them to relocate due to unaffordable housing options. However, it benefits the local authority and national government, which collaborate with global economic powers that invest in real estate to accumulate capital. The conformist and legalistic-bureaucratic nature of the Portuguese planning system, evident in Coimbra’s local authority, exacerbates the problem. We emphasise the potentially transformative impact of economic degrowth thinking on housing policy. The implications of this research question the validity of mainstream economic theory as commonly applied to urban planning.

Rapid urbanization is universally acknowledged to degrade ecosystem services, posing significant threats to human well-being. However, the effects of urban shrinkage, a global phenomenon and a counterpart to urbanization, on ecosystem services (ESs) remain unclear. This study focuses on China’s Rust Belt during the period from 2000 to 2020, constructing a comprehensive analytical framework based on long-term remote sensing data to reveal the temporal and spatial patterns of ESs and their associations with cities experiencing varying degrees of shrinkage. It employs a random forest (RF) model and a Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) model to measure and visualize the significance and thresholds of socioeconomic factors influencing changes in ESs. Our findings highlight the following: (1) Since 2010, the three provinces of Northeast China (TPNC) have begun to shrink comprehensively, with the degree of shrinkage intensifying over time. Resource-based cities have all experienced contraction. (2) Regional urban shrinkage has been found to enhance the overall provision capacity of ESs, with the most significant improvements in cities undergoing continuous shrinkage. (3) The impact of the same socioeconomic drivers varies across cities with different levels of shrinkage; increasing green-space ratios and investing more in public welfare have been identified as effective measures to enhance ESs. (4) Threshold analysis indicates that the stability of the tertiary sector’s proportion is critically important for enhancing ESs in cities undergoing intermittent shrinkage. An increase of 10% to 15% in this sector can allow continuously shrinking cities to balance urban development with ecological improvements. This research highlights the positive aspects of urban shrinkage, demonstrating its ability to enhance the provision capacity of ESs. It offers new insights into the protection and management of regional ecosystems and the urban transformation of the three eastern provinces.

Shrinking cities scholars claim that planning actors in the cities where shrinking is accepted are more likely to change the focus of planning strategy from pursuing growth to actively planning for de-growth. Considering this argument, this article investigates to what extent planning actors in shrinking cities seek solutions outside the dominant growth paradigm if they accept the reality of shrinkage. This is accomplished by examining the comprehensive plans of 18 shrinking cities in the Rust Belt area of the US and establishing relations between the interpretations of urban decline expressed in these planning documents and the resulting planning visions and strategies. The findings demonstrate that although planning actors in most analysed cases accepted urban shrinkage as a reality and adopted a vision of a smaller future city, they mainly devised strategies that facilitate growth. This suggests that urban planning may be far less impacted by specific interpretations of shrinkage, including acceptance, than what is popularly believed to be the case. Instead, growth remains a focal point of most planning efforts in shrinking cities, even when planning actors acknowledge it may not be realistically attainable.

Urban shrinkage has led to urban decline and depopulation in Western countries. With the development of urbanization in China, urban shrinkage also appeared in China and gradually spread in many cities. The study of urban shrinkage helps to provide an important theoretical basis for the development of China's new urbanization and restore the vitality of urban development. This study used China's population data at a scale of 1 km from 2000 to 2015 to identify population increases and decreases over a long time series. Based on microscopic population changes in the city, the identification and characteristic analysis of urban shrinkage were performed, and the results were correlated with three modes of urban expansion in order to explore the relationship between the intensity of urban shrinkage and the pattern of spatial expansion. The results were as follows: (1) from 2000 to 2015, 80% of 366 cities in China experienced varying degrees of shrinkage, of which moderate and low shrinkage accounted for 64%. In addition, some regions such as northeast China, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and southwest China have shown the spatial agglomeration of urban shrinkage phenomena. (2) Of the 291 cities where urban shrinkage has occurred in China, 99% experienced a weak shrinkage, while only 1% experienced a moderate shrinkage. In northern China, center shrinkage is the main pattern, while cities in southern China had an alternating distribution of marginal and central shrinkage. The type of urban shrinkage may be related to the speed of local economic development. Excessive speed of economic development and unreasonable mode of urban spatial expansion may lead to marginal shrinkage. (3) The expansion pattern of construction land in China from 2000 to 2015 was mainly outlying expansion, and population shrinkage was the most significant in this expansion mode. The compactness of the construction land expansion in China is inversely proportional to the intensity of the population shrinkage, and the lower the compactness, the stronger the intensity of the population shrinkage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The phenomenon of urban growth and shrinkage coexist in China's rapid urbanization process, and urban shrinkage in the old industrial bases is a long-time disturbing problem. Based on the population and economic changes in cities of China's old industrial bases from 2009 to 2018, this paper analyzed the status and types of urban shrinkage and explored its influence mechanism. Results show that: (1) In general, the type of urban shrinkage of the old industrial base cities are mainly economic shrinkage, the type of population-economic shrinkage comes second, and pure population shrinkage is relatively few. The economic shrinkage and population-economic shrinkage cities mostly show the continuous spatial distribution, the population shrinkage type show the "dot" distribution features. (2) The shrinkage path goes as that economic decline precedes population loss in most old industrial base cities, and in few old industrial base cities, population loss led to economic decline. The cities in line with the former transformation path are mainly in central provinces and northeastern regions of China, while the cities in line with the latter transformation path are mainly in the northeast old industrial base. (3) The analysis of the influencing factors of old industrial base cities shows that birth rate, employment structure, industrial structure, opening-up policy, investment in science and technology affect the growth and shrinkage of urban population and economy in different directions and degrees. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban shrinkage, characterised by long-term demographic, socio-economic and spatial changes, has been studied extensively, including via research into causes, typologies, and planning responses. However, while understanding and measuring urban shrinkage processes is crucial if policymakers are to respond adequately to cities' challenges, multi-criterion studies on shrinkage trajectories are still required for the spatiotemporal complexity to be captured correctly. This study reviews methods by which urban shrinkage is studied and concludes with a selection of multi-criterion methods that offer more in-depth insight than population-based methods. Finally, a multicriteria analysis, adapted from Milbert (2015), is applied to measure urban shrinkage in Poland in the years 2006 to 2021. This incorporates six variables with a view to shrinking and growing cities being assessed and assigned to one of five categories. The research provides insights into Poland's most recent urban shrinkage processes. Results show that, over the analysed period, urban shrinkage was a phenomenon that increased and intensified in Poland, affected a growing number of urban centres of medium size, and was to be noted on the peripheries of metropolitan areas. Such research outcomes contribute to a better understanding of urban shrinkage in Poland, provide a basis for further research, and inform policymakers as they seek to formulate more-targeted strategies to address the specific challenges that urban shrinkage raises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While existing research has deepened our understanding of global urban shrinkage, studies on the governance of urban shrinkage in China remain deficient. Based on extensive field research in Suihua, in Northeast China, and applying an institutionalist perspective, this study explored two critical challenges faced by Chinese political institutions concerning their governance of urban shrinkage. First, the absence of well-articulated opinions and clearly defined policies of the central government render the governance of shrinking cities uncertain and over-dependent on the personal position of the shrinking city's immediate superior. Second, the local economic development path of China's shrinking cities often depends on land transactions and pollution-intensive industries, which appear not only to be the main cause of the worsening urban shrinkage, but also the biggest source of locally-generated income. As a result, re-industrialization as the apparently ideal strategy for local development in Northeast China undermines the local government's attempts to counter urban shrinkage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most scholarly attention to vanishing cities is fairly recent so, to guide future research, a comprehensive evaluation of prior findings is required. This study is a network analysis of 333 publications authored in English, published over the last two decades. The findings are as follows: (1) shrinking city research has increased significantly since 2016; (2) the key themes are planning, decline, depopulation, policy, regeneration, vacant land, green infrastructure, and case studies such as Detroit; and (3) major academic groups have not yet collaborated effectively on the subject. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are dynamic systems that grow or decline under different factors. Urban shrinkage is one of the new phenomena in urban literature that was considered in the first decade of the 21st century. In fact, this concept represents a kind of urban decline that is affected by population decline, economy, environment, and other urban dimensions. The multidimensional and causal nature of this phenomenon has led to it appearing in the form of vicious cycles causing death in affected cities over time. Many factors from global to local levels can create or intensify this, including globalisation, competition, deindustrialisation, suburbanisation, and political decline.Numerous studies and researches have in developed countries have measured the causes and effects of this phenomenon, but despite the importance of this concept, very little has been done in developing countries so far. This study aims to introduce urban shrinkage as one of the important issues largely neglected in the global south, and to investigate the drivers of urban shrinkage in the small-size town of Harsin. The research method is quantitative and qualitative, so that on the one hand, by examining the relevant statistics, the amount of population changes in different periods has been calculated, whilst on the other hand, by a content analysis of interviews with immigrants allows for the themes related to urban shrinkage, and thereby the drivers of this phenomenon to be extracted.Examining the population studies of Kermanshah province, the research shows that in the cities of this province, five cities have lost population between2012 to 2017,with Harsin ranking highest with 11.6%. The content analysis of interviews shows that the most important drivers of Harsin urban shrinkage are to do with employment, lack of amenities, and socio-political problems.

Urban shrinkage has become increasingly prevalent in the context of global urbanization. Understanding its spatio-temporal characteristics and influencing factors is of great significance for promoting sustainable development and high-quality urbanization. This paper identified county-level shrinking cities in Heilongjiang Province from the perspective of urban entities. It employed spatial autocorrelation methods to analyze their spatial-temporal characteristics and explored the factors that contributed to this phenomenon. The results indicated that between 2010 and 2020, the phenomenon of urban shrinkage at the county level in Heilongjiang Province was primarily concentrated in the province's hinterland. Moreover, they exhibited characteristics of the Great Recession and Small Growth. The main factors influencing the shrinkage included the urban industrial structure, living standards, and population composition.

The governance of urban shrinkage has recently become an important topic for geographers and urban planners. However, a comprehensive exploration of the various spatial problems and governance paths in shrinking cities remains a huge gap in urban shrinkage governance literature. Building on the review and induction of extensive literature, this paper constructs a theoretical framework for the spatial governance of urban shrinkage from four perspectives: conceptual connotations, influencing factors, paths, and effects. By field investigation and policy interpretation, it takes Jixi City as a case, a coal-based shrinking city in China, to explore the policy response of the government and their effects. We find that the spatial governance of Jixi is a process of multisubject participation and multielement integration focusing on various spatial issues, which confirms the rationality of the analytical framework. Also, there are both similarities and differences in the spatial governance of urban shrinkage between Western countries and Chinese. This study enriches the theory of urban shrinkage governance, shows Chinese characteristics in urban governance, and provides governance enlightenment for other shrinking cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban shrinkage is becoming a worldwide issue. However, empirical investigation still lacks an understanding of the spatial extent of the factors that drive local population decline, a prevalent aspect of urban shrinkage. Empirical evidence on multilevel factors relating to population decline is particularly scarce. We investigated the influences by analyzing economic, social, physical, and policy conditions at the local and regional levels. Regional conditions, as well as local conditions, are also related to the decline of the local population. The effect goes beyond economic and demographic conditions; conditions such as the local infrastructure level and development policy also significantly influence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currently, Chinese cities are experiencing both overall growth and localized shrinkage. Therefore, it becomes crucial to quantify urban shrinkage and explore the transformation and sustainable development of shrinking cities from the perspective of urban resilience. This study focuses on the three provinces of Northeast China, which are representative areas of urban shrinkage, as its research subjects. Employing the analytic hierarchy process, a comprehensive evaluation system for urban shrinkage is constructed based on three dimensions: population, economy, and space. Furthermore, urban resilience is scientifically measured from four aspects: economy, society, ecology, and infrastructure. The study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of urban shrinkage and urban resilience in the three northeastern provinces from 2012 to 2018. It also examines the impact of urban shrinkage on urban resilience through regression analysis and mediation models. The results indicate the following: (1) Half of the cities in the three northeastern provinces experienced shrinkage, although the extent of shrinkage decreased with the implementation of the Northeast China revitalization strategy. Population-related shrinkage was the most extensive and continued to expand, while economy-related shrinkage was the most severe, and space-related shrinkage was the least severe. (2) The resilience of shrinking cities was lower than the average level. Population-shrinking cities and economy-shrinking cities exhibited low levels of economic resilience, and the gap between them continued to widen. Space-shrinking cities generally had low infrastructure resilience. (3) The urban shrinkage index had a significant positive impact on the urban resilience index, mediated through intermediary variables, such as innovation capability and cultural development. Notably, both the direct and indirect effects of innovation capability were the greatest. Population-related shrinkage had the largest impact on urban resilience, while more intermediary variables of economy-related shrinkage passed the significance test. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the context of unsustainable urban growth patterns and employment difficulties, we examine the impact of urban shrinkage on labor investment efficiency by drawing on the idea of the difference-in-difference model. Using a sample of Chinese firms from 2010 to 2019, our findings suggest that the widespread occurrence of urban shrinkage in China was responsible for a significant portion of the excessive labor investment in most listed companies. These results are robust to alternative specifications. In addition, we further found heterogeneity in the impact of urban shrinkage on labor investment efficiency. For state-owned or mature listed companies, this impact is manifested as the promotion of employment redundancy, while for non-state-owned or young companies, the impact is reflected in alleviating insufficient employment. Thus, we creatively identify a potential channel through which imbalanced development between cities affects corporate and economic sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While most studies on shrinking urban areas have focused on the negative consequences of urban change, scholarly interest in reinventing urban shrinkage continues to grow. Nevertheless, research on the possible benefits of urban shrinkage remains insufficient. Thus, this study used a cross-case analysis to investigate the positive attributes of shrinkage as well as their utilization processes and associated benefits in three shrinking districts in Seoul. The results indicate that the following opportune circumstances could arise: collective actions prompted by people feeling despair after shrinkage; the initiation and spread of small-scale projects that replace a grand plan; the availability of less competitive land and built property for transformative uses; and the rediscovery of local industrial values and know-how. These attributes influence the growth of social capital and civic engagement in local planning and the revitalization of stagnant local economies. The findings suggest that even if an urban district declines, opportunities for reinvention may occur if stakeholders effectively capitalize on the favorable features of urban shrinkage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development statuses of cities are intimately associated with their spatial scales. Multiscale trajectories of cities are lenses through which can be discerned the pattern and tendency of regional development. In this paper, using comparisons of demographic and economic development, geographic detectors, and hierarchical logistic regressions, we examine the evolutionary characteristics and influential factors of multiscale urban development in Jilin Province, China. The findings show that alongside the "top-down" transformations of the spatial scales, the typologies of urban development tend to diversify. Economic and political factors played key roles in the divergence of growth and shrinkage of prefecture-level, while natural and social factors had strong effects on the divergence between growth and shrinkage of county-level cities and small towns. Moreover, urban development has demonstrated scale connection: towns under the jurisdictions of absolutely growing county-level cities are likely to be subjected to smart shrinkage; towns under the jurisdictions of smartly growing county-level cities are prone to potential shrinkage; towns under the jurisdictions of absolutely shrinking county-level cities are at risk of absolute shrinkage. Our findings recommend that regional policies take multiscale spaces into account to capture regularity of regional development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The phenomenon of shrinking cities is a significant challenge faced by many cities today. To more accurately identify the leading factors driving urban shrinkage and develop rational recommendations, precise identification and classification of urban shrinkage has become an indispensable part of the process. This paper focuses on the typical population loss region of China's three northeastern provinces, using 497 identified physical cities as the basic research unit. Based on multi-source geographical big data and utilizing the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, spatial modeling of population in the three provinces of northeast China was conducted, resulting in spatialized population data, followed by identification and classification of shrinking cities among the physical cities. Cities with a total population change rate of less than 0 are defined as shrinking cities. In cities where the total population change rate is greater than 0, cities with both a city shrinking area ratio and a decreased population ratio greater than 5% are defined as locally shrinking cities. Based on this, 90 (18.1%) shrinking cities and 118 (23.7%) locally shrinking cities were identified within the three provinces of northeast China. The phenomenon of urban shrinkage is distributed throughout various regions, mainly in smaller cities located near larger cities. According to the standards of the urban shrinkage classification model, the spatial pattern of population loss regions was divided into four types, identifying 13 (6.3%) global type, 111 (53.4%) concentrated type, 64 (30.7%) perforated type, and 20 (9.6%) edge type. Analysis of shrinking cities based on their classification revealed that the main reasons for urban shrinkage are the decline and dissolution of large industrial enterprises, abandonment and neglect of buildings, and unreasonable design planning in cities. Economic development and inward population flow can be promoted in shrinking cities by creating job opportunities, improving living standards, developing transportation, adjusting urban planning or concentrating urban population, as well as vigorously developing urban center areas. These measures can provide support for the revival and development of shrinking cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Planners worldwide are exploring ways to regenerate shrinking cities, varying from pro-growth strategies with the aim of reversing population losses, to strategies that manage urban decline by adjusting the built environment to a smaller population. However, both approaches are reactionary rather than anticipatory, addressing decline after substantial shrinkage has happened. This paper examines the relationship between place identity and attachment and urban shrinkage, arguing that reinforcing place attachment based on building a strong local identity can help cities reduce the negative consequences of shrinkage. We propose an identity-building method that can become the base for design strategies fostering place identity and attachment. The paper applies this method to Chōfu, one of Tokyo's bedroom towns, which is currently developing strategies to anticipate its future shrinkage. The method collects the radically exterior perceptions of international visitors to trigger conversations with local stakeholders with the final aim of finding critical elements to consider when developing design strategies to anticipate decline. Policymakers and planners are better advised to consider alternatives to business-as-usual approaches to shrinkage, so that regeneration strategies can be more significantly linked with the specifics of the place and how it is perceived, achieving a higher attachment and involvement with residents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cities are dynamic systems that grow or decline under different factors. Urban shrinkage is one of the new phenomena in urban literature that was considered in the first decade of the 21st century. In fact, this concept represents a kind of urban decline that is affected by population decline, economy, environment, and other urban dimensions. The multidimensional and causal nature of this phenomenon has led to it appearing in the form of vicious cycles causing death in affected cities over time. Many factors from global to local levels can create or intensify this, including globalisation, competition, deindustrialisation, suburbanisation, and political decline. Numerous studies and researches have in developed countries have measured the causes and effects of this phenomenon, but despite the importance of this concept, very litile has been done in developing countries so far. This study aims to introduce urban shrinkage as one of the important issues largely neglected in the global south, and to investigate the drivers of urban shrinkage in the small-size town of Harsin. The research method is quantitative and qualitative, so that on the one hand, by examining the relevant statistics, the amount of population changes in different periods has been calculated, whilst on the other hand, by a content analysis of interviews with immigrants allows for the themes related to urban shrinkage, and thereby the drivers of this phenomenon to be extracted. Examining the population studies of Kermanshah province, the research shows that in the cities of this province, five cities have lost population between2012 to 2017, with Harsin ranking highest with 11.6%. The content analysis of interviews shows that the most important drivers of Harsin urban shrinkage are to do with employment, lack of amenities, and socio-political problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban shrinkage is the process of population loss, industrial and functional decline, and eco-environmental deterioration due to various natural and human factors that occur once a city's development reaches a certain point. It is an external manifestation of positive or negative changes in an urban economy, society, culture, resource use, and sustainability. Urban shrinkage is a new feature of global urbanization as well as a frontier of international and Chinese research. It has attracted widespread attention from academics in China and overseas, becoming an emerging trend that has spread from developed countries to underdeveloped ones. Research on and responses to urban shrinkage have also become new tasks of China's new urbanization strategy. Our review of the existing literature reveals that there are significant temporal and spatial differences in research by Chinese and overseas scholars on urban shrinkage. Urban shrinkage studies have paid scant attention to interactions with the eco-environment, with analyses of urban shrinkage mechanisms and factors largely focusing on economic and social development factors; and urban shrinkage index analyses have tended not to include eco-environmental quality and environmental pollution indicators. The key tasks for future urban shrinkage research include the following: to conduct in-depth research on the mechanisms and driving factors of urban shrinkage to reveal the essence of urban shrinkage; to discover the principles behind interactions between urban shrinkage and the eco-environment, as well as to analyze the eco-environmental effects of urban shrinkage; to construct an index system for evaluating the extent, monitoring and providing warnings of, and containing urban shrinkage; and to research urban shrinkage coping strategies under different circumstances and carry out experiments and demonstrations according to local conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shrinking cities have received increasing attention in recent years given that the emergence of these cities has raised concerns about social equity, stability and sustainability. While extensive studies have attempted to measure the structural changes from a demographic perspective, it remains unclear to what extent the development of transportation infrastructure may have influenced the formation of shrinking cities, especially considering a multi-dimensional structural change. This study fills this research gap by conducting a comprehensive impact assessment of transportation infrastructure on the development of shrinking cities in China, considering demographic, economic, and social changes. Based on the New Economic Geography theory, a novel multi-dimensional shrinking index system was developed and the characteristics of spatial distributions of different types of shrinking cities were analyzed using the GIS analysis. In particular, the impacts of two primary surface transportation modes (roadway and high-speed rail) on shrinking cities' performance were examined using a two-stage least-square model and a Difference-in-Difference model. The results confirm that both the development of roadway and high-speed rail systems have exacerbated the loss of critical factors, such as permanent population, in most shrinking cities, although the degree of impact varies by the different modes and dimensions of shrinkage. Specifically, transportation infrastructure mainly intensifies the losses of economic and social factors in shrinking cities, while the impact on demographic loss is negligible. The research findings suggest that future infrastructure investment and the strategies for urban governance should be implemented more selectively based on the different types of shrinking cities to achieve more sustainable and resilient urban development. • The study provides an impact assessment of transportation infrastructure on shrinking cities in China. • A novel multi-dimensional shrinking index system was developed. • The impacts of roadways and high-speed rail on shrinking cities' performance were examined. • The results confirm that the transportation development exacerbated factor outflow from shrinking cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chinese cities are experiencing urban shrinkage due to demographic, environmental, economic, and political changes. However, urban form is another reason for urban shrinkage. This study first identified the shrinking of 293 cities in China based on the values of the change in brightness extracted from multi-year nighttime light data. Next, the characteristics of construction land morphology from 2019 were analyzed using landscape pattern analysis. Finally, the impact of urban form on urban shrinkage was explored using Geodetector. The results show that: (1) In total, 293 cities experienced different degrees of shrinkage. Regions with severe shrinkage were concentrated in the underdeveloped provinces, and autonomous central and western regions of China; moreover, (2) All factors of urban form significantly affected urban shrinkage. The largest q-values were found in patch density (0.144) and urban area (0.133), indicating that the degree of construction land fragmentation and urban area scale affected urban shrinkage the most; and (3) The interaction effects of pairwise factors were mutually or nonlinearly enhanced. The influence of urban form and socio-economic factors was stronger than that of socio-economic factors alone. This shows that the coupling of urban form and socio-economic factors strengthens the impact of urban form on urban shrinkage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]