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In this research paper, the dynamic trade-off theory is tested by applying European public and private firms, since as much of the existing research remains in the US public firm context only. The results of our research show that European firms, both private and public, follow the optimal capital structure path consistent with the dynamic trade-off theory. We find that above optimally levered firms adjust their leverage towards the optimal capital structure faster than the below optimally levered ones. In addition, the results show that public and private firms seem to make similar leverage adjustment decisions and that not only the size but also the public/private status of the firms account for the differences. https://doi.org/10.15458/ebr103

V magistrskem delu smo preučevali tehnično analizo. Glavni namen je ugotoviti, ali je donosnost v povprečju višja, če aktivno trgujemo z uporabo tehničnih indikatorjev v primerjavi s strategijo buy and hold. V magistrskem delu se bomo omejili predvsem na zelo razvite finančne instrumente s tako imenovanih razvitih kapitalskih trgov, ki imajo visoko likvidnost, kot so delnice Apple Inc., Amazon.com, General Motors Company, Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft in Allianz SE. Časovno obdobje od leta 2010 do 2018 bo relativen pokazatelj smiselnosti uporabe instrumentov tehnične analize. Omejili se bomo na uporabo treh indikatorjev tehnične analize, in sicer: RSI, MACD, stohastični oscilator. Portfelj trgovanja bo omejen na 10.000 EUR oz. 10.000 USD. Po opisu tehnične analize smo naredili še izračune, in sicer smo za vsako delnico izračunali vsak indikator in jih primerjali med seboj. Primerjali smo jih tudi s strategijo buy and hold. Pri rezultatih modela smo ovrgli hipotezo H1, saj je strategija buy and hold bila v povprečju donosnejša od katerega koli preučevanega indikatorja. Strategija buy and hold je bila najdonosnejša in zato modra odločitev. MACD in RSI sta bila dokaj dobra pokazatelja. Če bi upoštevali vse teoretično znanje, predvsem trende in vzorce, bi s tema dvema indikatorjema lahko zaslužili več. Najslabši indikator pa je stohastični, saj nam je vedno prinesel izgubo. Glavni razlog so provizije, saj se je s tem indikatorjem največ trgovalo in so zato bile provizije zelo velike. In the master's thesis we studied technical analysis. The main purpose is to determinate if the profitability is higher, when we trade actively in using technical indicators compared with the buy and hold strategy. In the master's thesis, we have studied so-called high-liquid capital markets on the limit of Apple Inc., Amazon.com, General Motors Company, Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft in Allianz SE. The period from 2010 to 2018 will demonstrate the purpose of using technical analysis instruments. We have limited on three different indicators of technical analysis in RSI, MACD, Stohastic, as well trade portfolio will be limited to EUR 10,000 or. $ 10,000. After the description of technical analyses, we have also made calculations of indicators for every single share and compare them with each other, we also compared them with the buy and hold strategy. The H1 hypothesis was refuted in the model results because the buy and hold strategy was, on average, more profitable than any of the indicators studied. The buy and hold strategy were the most profitable and wise decision. MACD and RSI were pretty good indicators, considering all the theoretical knowledge, especially trends and patterns, we could earn more with these two indicators. The worst indicator, however, is Stochastic, as it has always brought us loss. The main reason are commissions, as this indicator was most traded and therefore commissions were very high.

V diplomskem projektu se bomo osredotočili na pomen nestandardiziranih in standardiziranih terminskih pogodb ter predstavili njihove lastnosti in razlike med njimi. Pojasnili bomo način izračunavanja obrestne mere in prikazali vpliv pogostejše kapitalizacije. Razmislili bomo, kakšna naj bo izpolnitvena cena pri nestandardiziranih terminskih pogodbah na sredstva, ki imetniku ne zagotavljajo dohodka, in tistih, ki imetniku zagotavljajo točen in predvidljiv dohodek. Pri tem bomo proučili, pod kakšnimi pogoji oziroma kdaj nastanejo arbitražne priložnosti. Pri standardiziranih terminskih pogodbah bomo dokazali enakost med izpolnitveno in terminsko ceno v času sklenitve pogodbe ob pogoju, da je obrestna mera konstantna, in na primeru prikazali dnevno spreminjanje depozita na računu investitorja pri klirinški hiši, ki ima pozicijo v standardizirani terminski pogodbi. In the degree project, we will focus on the meaning of forward and futures contracts. We will present their characteristics and differences between them. We will explain the method of calculating the interest rate and show the impact of compounding frequency. We will consider the forward prices on an investment asset that does not provide the holder an income and also the ones that will provide a perfectly predictable cash income to the holder. We will also study under which conditions arise arbitrage opportunities. We will prove the equality between forward and future prices at the time of conclusion of the contract, under condition that the interest rate is constant. By example we will present the daily change of investor’s deposit at the clearing house, induces by a position in futures contracts.

Posebna oblika obveznic so podrejene obveznice. Od navadnih obveznic se razlikujejo predvsem po tem, da so podrejene drugim terjatvam izdajatelja v primeru stečaja, zato so v času gospodarske krize tudi bolj tvegana naložba kot sicer. Podrejene obveznice so izdale tudi slovenske banke. Izjemno slabo bančno stanje v Sloveniji je povzročilo, da se je konec leta 2013 zaradi dokapitalizacije bank s strani države, zgodil izbris podrejenega dolga teh bank. A special form of bonds are subordinated bonds. They are mainly differentiated from regular bonds in the case of bankruptcy, as a consequence they are more risky in the time of the economic crisis than otherwise. Slovenian banks also issued subordinated bonds. Extremely bad banking situation in Slovenia resulted capital increase of banks by the state, so the subordinated debt of these banks was eliminated in the and of year 2013.

V diplomski nalogi sem predstavil naložbeno okolje privatnega investitorja, ki investira v opcije. Predstavil sem teoretični okvir naložbenega okolja in se natančneje posvetil opcijam. Tako sem spoznal vrste opcij in pojme, ki jih je treba poznati za uspešno izbiro opcije. Teoretično sem preučil tudi tehnično in temeljno analizo, ki mi je dala iztočnice, kako to izpeljati na praktičnem primeru. Teoretičnemu okvirju sledi vrednotenje bazičnega instrumenta, v mojem primeru je to nemški borzni indeks DAX. Pri vrednotenju borznega indeksa DAX sta mi bili v pomoč tehnična in temeljna analiza. Pri tehnični analizi sem si pomagal s trendi, ki se pojavijo, z vzorci grafa, drsnimi povprečji, obsegom trgovanja ter z modelom Andrews pitchfork in s Fibonaccijevimi zaporedji. Pri temeljni analizi pa sem preučil BDP Nemčije, obrestne mere ECB, stopnjo brezposelnosti v Nemčiji, inflacijo in pa kazalnik P/E, ki pomeni razmerje med ceno delnice in dobičkom na delnico. Ti analizi sta mi dali namige za pravilno izbiro opcije. Izbrati sem moral nakupno ali prodajno opcijo in se na podlagi rezultatov, dobljenih iz tehnične in temeljne analize, odločil za nakupno opcijo. S tehnično analizo sem dokazal, da je opcija na borzni indeks od njega močno odvisna, kar priča graf borznega indeksa in opcije na ta borzni indeks. V analizi opcije pa sem poleg tehnične analize, ki sem jo prevzel iz tehnične analize borznega indeksa DAX, uporabil tudi dva računska modela. Prvo sem uporabil Black-Scholes-Merton model, s katerim sem določil prihodnjo vrednost opcije in s tem ugotovil, ali je opcija precenjena ali podcenjena. Drugi računski model pa je temeljil na grški črki delti, ki nam pove, za koliko se spremeni vrednost opcije, če se vrednost indeksa spremeni za eno točko. S pomočjo teorije in praktičnega primera sem predstavil znanja in veščine, ki jih potrebuje privatni investitor za uspešno trgovanje z opcijami, in ugotovil, za kakšnega investitorja je takšna vrsta naložbe oziroma špekulacije sploh primerna. This thesis explores the investment environment of a private investor, who invests in options. Using the theoretical frame, I learned a lot about the option types and terms, that are important in the effective selection of an option. With the help of the theory on technical and basic analysis I got a sense on how to do this on a practical case. The theoretical framework was followed by the evaluation of the basic instrument – the German Stock Index DAX. For the evaluation of the DAX index I used the technical and the basis analysis. The technical analysis included the use of existing trends, graphs, trading volume, Andrew's pitchfork model and Fibonacci sequence. In the basic analysis I examined the Germany's GDP, ECB interest rates, the unemployment rate in Germany, inflation, and the P/E ratio, that is the indicator for the ratio between the share price and earnings per share. The results of these two analyses gave me some hints on which option to choose. I had to choose between a call and a put option. Based on the results I chose the call option. Using the technical analysis, I proved, that the option is highly dependent on the stock index. For the option analysis I also used two calculation models. The first was the Black-Scholes-Merton model, that helped me to determine the future value of the option. In this way I found out if the option is overrated or underrated. The second calculation model was based on the Greek letter delta. This model told me how much the value of the option changes if the index value changes for one point. With the help of the theory and practical examples I introduced the knowledge and skills that a private investor has to possess in order to successfully trade options.